Host Ezgi Toper

From brokering the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in Istanbul to mediating the Ethiopia-Somalia peace deal and proposing a guarantor system for Palestine, we explore how Türkiye is shaping diplomacy around the world.

Transcript

YUSUF: About 10 years ago, maybe 15 years ago, people started calling Türkiye a regional power, questioning, is it a regional power? I don't think that's up for debate anymore. The debate is which region.

EZGI: My name is Ezgi Toper, and this is “In the Newsroom” – a TRT Global Podcasts production. I take you around our newsroom as I chat with my colleagues, where we go beyond the headlines.

Today’s episode is about a changing global power dynamic. From Ukraine to Palestine, from Syria to Somalia, there’s a shift happening in the world of diplomacy. And it’s not coming from Washington, Brussels, or Beijing. It’s coming from Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says a new geopolitical order is forming, and Türkiye is at its centre. 

TURKISH PRESIDENT RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN: Today, our country has become one of the few centres of peace diplomacy. Türkiye is one of the countries that mediation is sought out to resolve global crises.

EZGI: In the last few months, Türkiye has hosted ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. It was an influential force in the US’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria. It’s helped broker a peace roadmap between Ethiopia and Somalia. And it's proposing a new “guarantor system” to unlock diplomacy in Palestine, all while maintaining ties with NATO, Moscow, and Washington. So what’s driving this surge in Turkish diplomacy? And as Türkiye steps in where others have stepped back, is the East quietly becoming the new West in global politics? 

To unpack all this, I'm speaking with my colleague, Yusuf Erim, Editor-at-large and Türkiye analyst for TRT World.

EZGI: So, Yusuf, it's been quite a busy time for Türkiye's diplomatic efforts. Can you walk us through some of the highlights of this month?

Yusuf: There's been a lot of air traffic coming in and out of Türkiye. Not even the past month, just the past week, you had the Ukrainian president in Ankara meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, simultaneously, you had 32 NATO foreign ministers for the informal foreign ministerial in Antalya. While that was all happening, you had Ukraine peace talks with the Russian delegation, the Ukrainian delegation, which was chaired by the Turkish delegation, with an American delegation there as well, you had mini-laterals, you had bilateral, you had trilaterals that was all happening in Istanbul and that was just last week.

EZGI: What are the main factors that bring Türkiye into the heart of all of this? I mean, is it geographical? Is it cultural, historical? What's behind all this?

YUSUF: Well, I think from issue to issue, Türkiye's involvement changes. Geographical, obviously very important when you're talking about issues in the Middle East, like Gaza or Syria. Obviously, Türkiye has historical ties to the people of Palestine, they have historical ties to the Syrian people, and it's played such a big role during the Syrian civil war, taking on 4 million refugees from Syria, also playing a stabilising role in the north, supporting the Syrian opposition.

YUSUF: Obviously Palestine, Türkiye has also historical roots with the Palestinian people, from the years of the Ottoman Empire, where Palestine, Jerusalem, were part of the empire, so a deep history. They're also a very deep people-to-people connection as well, Erdogan having relations with the Palestinian people and the leadership there, again, when it comes to war in Ukraine. Erdogan, one of the few world leaders right now who can talk to both Putin and Zelensky at the same time. I mean, you can count them on one hand. You can count Erdogan, Orban, Xi Jinping. Mohammed bin Salman, that's basically it, and now Trump, I guess we can say,after these recent phone calls with Putin, that they're the only leaders that talked to both sides. So Türkiye’s balanced diplomacy over the years, allowing it to talk to multiple sides trying to be a problem solver, trying to be a force for stability in the region because stability makes Türkiye a big winner in its region, it's uniquely placed it to be able to play the problem solver in many of these roles.

EZGI: It is remarkable that Türkiye is able to maintain such strong relationships with opposing sides in all of these conflicts, whether it's Russia and Ukraine, as you mentioned, or Middle Eastern factions. I mean, how does it maintain this balancing act?

YUSUF: Look, Erdogan's very pragmatic. I mean, even in the past with leaders who he's had bad relationships with, when it's necessary, he feels his mandate. His mandate is working in the interests of Türkiye and the Turkish people, and he was willing to meet Assad until the very end, even though they had a very bad relationship for the decade of the Arab Spring. He ended up fixing the relationship with Sisi because Egypt's an important partner for Türkiye and that's what it required. He rebuilt the relationship with Saudi Arabia after, years and years of a very cold relationship. So, Erdogan's pragmatic. He does what he needs to do. He doesn't let his personal views get in the way of furthering Türkiye's interests. 

YUSUF: Erdogan is now the elder statesman in the international community. The man's been around for a quarter century. He has the experience, he has the relationships, he has that neutral positioning on these issues and also his support system with the Foreign Ministry with Hakan Fidan with his advisers and whatnot really place him in a unique position to be that elder statesman that says, hey, let's all get together let's sit down we can solve this. I mean, he's shown it in the past with the grain corridor deal working with Antonio Gutierrez, the UN Secretary General.

EZGI: The grain deal, brokered in 2022, allowed Ukraine to export its grain through the Black Sea while the war raged on. This is seen as a pivotal moment in Türkiye’s mediation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict over the last three years. 

YUSUF: Look, the Black Sea Grain initiative just, it was an unprecedented diplomatic initiative. I mean, it was the brainchild of UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Now, first of all, Türkiye had to be part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. First of all, geographically it doesn't work without the Turks involved, so putting even the diplomacy aside, it, it wouldn't have worked without the Turks being involved. Secondly, Erdogan's relationship with both Putin and Zelensky made it convenient for both of them to be able to have Türkiye as a venue for those talks. This was very important because many Turkish partners that looked to Türkiye and that also need that grain benefited, especially African countries and Middle Eastern countries that Türkiye does a lot of trade with. Türkiye has strategic relationships with, benefited from the grain corridor deal, so that was huge. Now, looking at it from an agriculture perspective, the benefits are obvious, but we also need to understand that many people underrate this part or overlook this aspect. It was actually also a security deal because you had coordination of movements in the Black Sea as well. 

EZGI: Where are we now with the conflict? I mean, what's Türkiye’s role going to be moving forward?

YUSUF: Well, I think now with the election of Donald J. Trump in the United States, I think there's a new dynamic to diplomacy because Erdogan was fighting an uphill battle. He wanted diplomacy to be the number one track, well unfortunately, many of his Western counterparts support Ukraine militarily, support the war.

I understand that Ukraine to be able to get a good deal, it does need to be strong. It can't be folding in the field and expect a good diplomatic dealer expect the other side to have any type of incentive to come to the diplomatic table, but when you have many of these Western countries, especially European countries only providing diplomatic, only providing military support with complete communications between their capital and Moscow shut off, that's not an end to the war that's a recipe for another forever war and I, I think we've seen enough forever wars whether it's Afghanistan, whether it's Iraq and when we look at the Syrian civil war, what 12 years basically 13 years that that's almost was on its way to a forever war so I think that was very, very important and now with Trump coming in and saying, hey, we're not doing this. And I think once he realised that this isn't something he can't do himself, that he's going to need the international community, he looked at the cards available to him, and he's like, oh, that the high card is Erdogan. I need to bring him. I need to work with him. He has the experience, and he also has a track record of getting results on Ukraine between the Russians and the Ukrainians.

US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: After discussing the situation in Syria with the Crown Prince, and also with President Erdogan of Türkiye who called me the other day and asked for a very similar thing, among others and friends of mine, people I have a lot of respect for in the Middle East, I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness.

YUSUF: That was very important, especially when you think about it, the first time in 25 years the US president, Syrian president have met. That's a big U-turn in US policy lifting those sanctions, so we can see that Erdogan has been very pivotal and critical on many regional and international issues to the point where even the US president views him as an indispensable part of US diplomacy and in trying to get things done. So he's kind of like a regional problem solver for Erdogan. He's been able to move forward on many issues that were deadlocked for almost a decade, with Trump's support. So I see that growing relationship between Trump and Erdogan where they're actually seeing eye to eye on so many issues. And their support for one another creating this incredible synergy I call it the force multiplier effect where they make each other better they make each other stronger, and they increase their capacity for each other to solve the problems that they're facing so it looks like we're gonna see a lot more cooperation between the two of them going forward.

EZGI: What makes Türkiye's diplomatic approach so unique? I mean, what sets it apart from Western powers like the US or Western institutions like the UN?

YUSUF: Well, first of all, I would say network. I mean, Türkiye’s got embassies everywhere. It's got very, very qualified ambassadorial staff.

It's part of many international alliances the UN, NATO. It right now has a good relationship, close relationship with the BRICS that could turn into full membership. The SCO, it's has a close relationship there. The organisation of Turkic states has a close relationship with the GCC. It's a candidate country in the EU, so. It's either a part of, on the sidelines as waiting accession or an observing member has a very close partner relationship with many of these important alliances. 

EZGI: So moving beyond Europe and moving beyond the Middle East, Türkiye is also playing a stabilising role in Africa's most fragile regions. Recently, we saw Türkiye's role in mediating talks between Ethiopia and Somalia. Can you explain what happened at this meeting? Why is it being dubbed historic?

YUSUF: Ethiopia, a landlocked country. It wanted access to the sea. It made a deal with a country that's unrecognised, Somaliland, the Somalians view it as part of, part of its territorial integrity, and, this deal was viewed as a direct threat to the territorial integrity of Somalia, and that diplomatic crisis was heading towards another war. Now, this doesn't work for Türkiye because Türkiye has very good relationships with both sides, with both the Ethiopians and the Somali people as well. So the last thing it wants to see is two critical actors that are very close to a very critical waterway, the Horn of Africa, creating some type of destabilising military engagement that's gonna affect international trade, that's gonna affect two Turkish partners, that's gonna affect Türkiye’s position in Africa.

You look at the early years, the 2002 to 2005 of Erdogan, he had already laid down the seeds for an Africa initiative, and you knew Africa was going to be a very important part of his administration when you look at the bilateral trade between Türkiye and Africa, the diplomatic networks, the projects that Türkiye has done, the diplomacy that it's undertaken being a strategic partner of the African Union. And also playing an important role in counterterrorism and solving conflicts on the African continent. Türkiye is heavily invested on the continent. It's also provided Africans with a lot of leverage because when we look at the traditional players on the continent, you have the French obviously, especially in the northwest part of the country with it's “colonies” almost still, I mean it almost still manages those countries as colonies, you have the Americans obviously, you have the Brits, so basically the collective West Europeans dominating on the continent but then you also have this these new players coming you have the Chinese, you have the Russians, and you have the Turks. The Turks offer something different when they come to the continent.

EZGI: What is different to their approach?

YUSUF: Well first thing they don't have the colonial baggage that the French or the Belgians or the UK or, the Italians or any of the Europeans have. They have that colonial baggage that comes with them. The Turks don't have that colonial baggage with them, A. B, much more fair deals. C, You have a lot of humanitarian investment, you have a lot of investment in the people as well, you have also more equal trade. The Turks try to buy from the Africans as well. They try to transfer technology when they can they work on a lot of infrastructure projects as well. So when you're getting better deals and you have someone that treats you equally and with respect. And you haven't been used to that. You've been used to being exploited for the past century. Yeah, that's a breath of fresh air and they're like, yeah, well, that's what we want. They're like, we'll do deals with these guys.

EZGI: So you're saying that this is very much an intentional effort to move away from Western-centric forms of diplomacy?

YUSUF: Well, look, I'll just say this, this isn't a coincidence or this wasn't improvised or unplanned. This is the culmination of 25 years. There was a plan set in place back in 2002, 2003, 2004, and as Erdogan continued to win, and he created some form of continuity in the government, that continuity was able to provide the necessary leadership to work out these big picture strategies. I mean, when you're around for 25 years, you can have these long five, ten, 15-year initiatives and carry them out rather than have this musical chairs at the top where someone comes in, erases what was done or takes it in a different direction.

EZGI: So, from everything we've spoken about today, I think it's clear to say that Türkiye is establishing itself as a new model of diplomatic influence from all corners of the world right now. What should our listeners watch out for in the coming months? Where should we really focus our attention? I mean, so much is happening.

YUSUF: Well, first of all, about 10 years ago, maybe 15 years ago, people started calling to care regional power, questioning, is it a regional power? I don't think that's up for debate anymore. The debate is which region. Is it an Eastern European power? Is it a Central Asian power? Is it a Eastern Mediterranean power? Is it a Black Sea power? Is it a Middle Eastern power? Is it a Muslim world power? I think Türkiye is an interregional power because it can project power into multiple regions at the same time. It can project influence into multiple regions at the same time. So I think that the way Türkiye is going to continue developing this diplomacy, developing it's lack of foreign dependence, building its strategic autonomy up. It's definitely something that is going to be watched out for in the future.

YUSUF: Things are finite. You don't have this unending supply of military, unending supply of diplomats, unending supply of weapons. Everything's finite, so it's getting to the point where superpowers are trying to recruit these regional powers to try like a kind of like a corporate hierarchy where you have the general manager. And you have the regional managers and the general managers, and the general manager is trying to delegate more power. That's why you're seeing countries like Türkiye now taking a more important role in security in Syria at the table in Ukraine, trying to solve what's going on in Gaza because America is at its limit. America's at its limit, but that's also why you see Russia trying to recruit Türkiye as well to its side because they see how valuable Türkiye is.

Whichever camp Türkiye, is in. It is a big addition to that camp. I mean, you have NATO's 2nd largest army. You have a tremendous diplomatic network. You have a big defence industry that's shown that it can supply weapons not only domestically for its own army, but it can be a big game changer supplying another country that's in an active conflict, which is huge, and you still have a young, skilled population that is growing. I mean is a manufacturing country. It's a G20 economy, and I mean, and this is with the economy at a slowdown phase. I mean, sooner or later, economies are cyclical. It's going to pick back up again, and when it does pick back up, is gonna be in a position better than it's probably ever been.

EZGI: Thank you so much Yusuf, this was really really important. I feel like you took such a complex topic and broke it down into very digestible pieces for us.

Türkiye is shaping geopolitics across multiple regions from the Black Sea to the Horn of Africa, proving its unique ability to bridge divides where others fail. Whether brokering grain deals between Russia and Ukraine, reconciling Gulf rivals, or mediating between Ethiopia and Somalia, Türkiye’s strategy hinges on pragmatism and a vast diplomatic network.

So, what’s next? Keep an eye on Türkiye’s foreign policy because if this month is any indication, Ankara isn’t just filling gaps in global diplomacy, it’s rewriting the rules and establishing itself further as a significant diplomatic player. 

Until next time, I’m Ezgi Toper, and you’ve been listening to “In the Newsroom”.