The transition to smart, renewable-powered grids is transforming global energy, but it also introduces risks such as blackouts, cyber threats, and increased dependence on new technology, according to a recent report by Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy (MIA).

The report published on Friday, titled “Energy Security and Digital-Green Transformation: Transition to Smart and Carbon-Free Grids”, revealed that while smart technologies and carbon-free grids hold the potential to decarbonise economies and reduce fossil fuel dependence, they also push traditional power systems to their limits.

“The reliability of electricity grids is no longer guaranteed,” the report says.

 “As we move toward higher shares of renewable energy and greater digitalisation, ensuring stability has become one of the defining challenges of our time.”

A wake-up call

The vulnerabilities of this transformation became starkly visible on April 28, 2025, when a massive power outage originating in Spain rippled across Portugal and France, plunging millions into darkness for nearly 10 hours.

The cascading failure left thousands trapped in metros, airports, and train stations. Payment systems collapsed, hospitals restricted services to emergencies, and several regions declared a state of emergency.

Analysts identified a critical factor: renewable energy’s share in Spain’s power grid reached 78 per cent, far above the recommended 70 per cent threshold. 

The lack of sufficient reserve capacity amplified the system’s fragility, triggering widespread failures.

“This blackout is a warning,” the report says.

“Without updated protection strategies and resilient infrastructure, the risks of systemic collapse will continue to rise.”

The promise and peril of smart grids

Smart grids — integrating AI, Internet of Things (IoT), and real-time data analytics — are central to the digital-green revolution. By balancing supply and demand, predicting consumption patterns, and improving energy efficiency, these systems promise a more sustainable and adaptive power network.

However, “smart” does not necessarily mean secure, the report says.

With deeper digital integration comes heightened exposure to cyberattacks, false data injection, and malware disruptions that could cripple entire regions.

To counter these risks, the report advocates AI-powered anomaly detection, encrypted communications, and multi-factor authentication for critical grid operations.

As the planet warms, extreme weather events — from hurricanes and floods to prolonged droughts — are amplifying energy risks. 

Renewable sources like solar and wind, while vital for decarbonisation, remain intermittent and weather dependent.

To stabilise supply during sudden demand surges, several countries are now reactivating nuclear plants as emergency reserve capacity, marking a controversial but pragmatic shift.

New technologies, new dependencies

The digital-green transition also creates a new wave of technological dependencies. 

The report highlights critical reliance on AI-driven control systems, advanced energy storage, and grid-forming power electronics — many of which are produced abroad.

“Energy independence now extends beyond fuel,” the analysis reveals.

“Without developing domestic technologies, nations risk replacing one form of dependency with another.”

Regions with high renewable penetration face growing challenges in balancing fluctuating supply and demand. 

The analysis underscores the importance of large-scale energy storage solutions, pointing to pumped-storage hydroelectric plants as superior alternatives to chemical batteries.

These facilities, the report says, are particularly effective in mitigating the so-called “duck curve,” where energy demand peaks sharply after sunset when solar generation drops.

The analysis calls for a multi-pronged defence strategy to safeguard energy systems in the digital-green era. 

It emphasises the need to modernise ageing infrastructure by upgrading power plants, substations, and automation systems. 

Strengthening the capabilities of grid operators is also critical, with a focus on training in cyber awareness, real-time crisis response, and system optimisation. 

Additionally, the report highlights the importance of expanding international collaboration through the sharing of cyber threat intelligence and the development of coordinated response mechanisms.

However, it warns that such measures must be paired with domestic innovation. 

“Regional cooperation is essential,” the report stresses, “but strategic independence demands homegrown technologies.”

A fragile transition

The digital-green transformation represents one of the most ambitious infrastructure shifts in modern history. Yet, as grids grow smarter and more connected, they are also becoming more fragile.

“The future of energy security will depend on finding the balance,” the report says. 

“Smart, sustainable, and resilient grids are not optional — they are imperative.”

From large-scale blackouts to cybersecurity threats and technological dependencies, the report by Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy underscores that energy security in the 21st century hinges on resilient infrastructure, domestic innovation, and international collaboration.