A century-old border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia flared into deadly clashes last week, with rocket strikes, air raids, and landmines leaving civilians dead on both sides of the border, and thousands displaced.
Fighting peaked just before a ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia’s leader Anwar Ibrahim, requiring both sides to withdraw troops and accept international monitoring.
Many suspect that behind-the-scenes issues are fuelling the current dispute.
From a rift between Thailand’s and Cambodia’s ruling families, the Shinawatras and the Huns, to shifting dynamics in money laundering and scam operations along the border, are adding to the tensions, according to Patinya Ambuel, a Thai-American analyst.
Thaksin Shinawatra, former Prime Minister of Thailand and father of acting Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (who was suspended after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former PM Hun Sen), has long maintained close ties with Hun Sen, whose son Hun Manet now leads Cambodia.
That friendship appears to have broken down recently, and that rupture is what experts cite as a major factor in the current flare-up.
Evidence of the fallout includes the leaked phone call between Hun Sen and Paetongtarn, in which she allegedly offered to act against a Thai military officer at the Cambodian leader’s request. Thaksin reportedly saw the leak as a betrayal. “I never imagined someone so close could act this way.” However, Hun Sen also feels betrayed by the former Thai leader.
While both sides accuse each other of betrayal, many in Thailand, including top officials, view Paetongtarn’s remarks as bordering on treason.
More factors seem to emerge as contributing to the conflict between two once-friendly neighbours.
Upsetting casinos, “scam centres”?
Among the potential sources of conflict is Thailand’s plan to open casinos and “entertainment centres” near the Cambodian border, something that may have angered Hun Sen, Ambuel says.
Currently, there are casinos just across the Thai border in Cambodia, frequented especially by Thais and Chinese. This would be a loss of revenue for Cambodia, as well as a loss of lucrative money laundering operations, she adds.
The issue of money always causes rifts in any conflict, according to her. Thailand’s proposal to open casino businesses might be angering Hun Sen, as shady financial activities from Thailand would no longer need to siphon through Cambodia’s casinos for laundering, not to mention the loss of huge casino earnings.
In addition, growing pressure on the Thai government to crack down on scam centres, an issue not just for Bangkok but the international community, may also be contributing to the feud, Ambuel adds.
In these scam centres, criminal gangs have trafficked hundreds of thousands of people and forced them to conduct online and telephone fraud, generating billions of dollars annually, according to the UN. In March, Thailand, a supplier of electricity and internet to some of these operations, led a crackdown on several centres.
Rising nationalist sentiment on both sides may also be inflaming tensions.
Ambuel refers to the possibility that Hun Sen may be trying to drum up some nationalist sentiment to help quash any potential opposition to his son’s government and Thai army’s likely eagerness to play up nationalism to run down calls for a military reform.
While Thais have their own corrupt leadership, according to some rumours, the unpopular Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Manet “created a situation to distract the country from his socio-economic failure,” says Ambuel.
Century-old “temple” dispute
While some Western media coverage links the conflict to US-China rivalry, the roots of the Cambodia-Thailand dispute go back to the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904 and 1907, which defined the boundary between then-Siam and French Indochina, according to Dan Steinbock, a leading economist and political analyst on China and South Asian politics.
Siam refers to modern-day Thailand, while French Indochina encompassed present-day Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.
Like many of the world’s international borders, the Thai-Cambodian boundary was drawn by colonial Western powers without regard to native populations and their social, economic, or cultural landmarks, including sites of their ancient temples like Preah Vihear.
“It is these colonial legacies that overshadow the present conflict,” Steinbock tells TRT World.
Preah Vihear is currently located in Cambodia, but Thailand claims the temple should be part of its territory.
Beyond Preah Vihear, several other areas are also disputed, according to Ambuel. In 1959, Cambodia brought the temple issue to the International Court of Justice, which ruled in Cambodia’s favour in 1962.
The political status of two other temples: Angkor Wat and Prasat Ta Moan Thom (which means “Great Temple of Grandfather Chicken”), also remains a source of fierce disagreement.
“Border tensions have persisted, especially after Cambodia applied for World Heritage status for Preah Vihear,” Ambuel tells TRT World.
Angkor Wat is located in Cambodia near the Thai border, while Prasat Ta Moan Thom is located in Thailand, close to the Cambodian border.
Why now?
According to Steinbock, since the Biden administration, Washington has increasingly portrayed Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, in “Cold War-style win-lose terms,” beginning with the US military pivot to the region over a decade ago. He says that the term “Asia” itself has been replaced by “Indo-Pacific.”
“When economies struggle and geopolitics hovers over peaceful development, legacy conflicts thrive. This was the case during the Cold War, which some powers would like to triumph today as well,” says Steinbock, referring to possible US involvement and adding that both Thailand and Cambodia are among the top five nations affected by Trump’s tariffs.
In the process, many colonial legacy conflicts in Asia have been redefined as if they were a part of this new rivalry, including the Thailand-Cambodia border friction, as if it could be separated from its French colonial past, he adds.
While Southeast Asia and China are currently working towards stability through ASEAN-China Code of Conduct talks, Steinbock says external forces like the US are undermining the region’s efforts towards economic integration, favouring divisive geopolitics over cooperation.