France’s centrist experiment is in trouble. For the second time in a year, a government under President Emmanuel Macron has collapsed, raising questions about whether his brand of politics can still hold the country together.

Francois Bayrou, a veteran centrist and Macron ally, lost a no-confidence vote this week during a heated budget debate. His proposed deficit-cutting plan drew fire from both the left and the far-right, dooming his government. 

Bayrou was the sixth prime minister to serve under Macron, whose presidency is showing what experts call “alarming” signs of erosion. Within hours, Macron appointed another close ally, Sebastien Lecornu, as his seventh prime minister.

Lecornu now faces the Herculean task of steering a budget through a National Assembly split into three hostile blocs: centrists, the left-wing alliance (NFP), and Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN).  

“We are witnessing a very slow collapse of the majority of voters who re-elected the president in 2022, but not giving him the majority he was asking for in the 2024 legislative elections,” says Emmanuel Dupuy, a French political scientist at the Catholic University of Lille. “France has had three prime ministers during the last year.” 

Lecornu, 39, is a Macron ally and former Minister of Defence. But his close ties to an increasingly unpopular president – Macron’s approval rating is hovering around 15 percent, an all-time low – could weaken his hand, analysts say.

“It would be extremely difficult to form a new relatively stable government given the current composition of the National Assembly and the task ahead — to adopt the austerity budget,” says Denys Kolesnyk, a Paris-based political analyst and president of the MENA Research Centre.   

A shrinking centrist core

Macron’s centrist alliance controls only 166 of the Assembly’s 577 seats. By contrast, the leftist NFP holds 193, while RN has 126. The remainder split among independents and remnants of the traditional center-right Republicans.  

Despite this fractured landscape, Macron has consistently appointed centrist or centre-right allies, like Bayrou, Michel Barnier, and now Lecornu, without securing parliamentary majorities.

Critics argue this strategy shows the president is unwilling to adapt. 

Like Bayrou, the new prime minister is also “too close to the president and therefore giving the impression that the president has not listened to what the MPs have said,” Dupuy tells TRT World.

Bayrou’s downfall came after he proposed €44 billion in cuts to reduce France’s deteriorating economic situation with a soaring national debt, which now stands at 114 percent of GDP. He lost the no-confidence vote by 364 to 194.  

“Macron made the choice to basically continue with the same people. There were some expectations that he would try to appoint someone from the centre-left, but he decided to appoint someone from his own party,” says Francois Gemenne, a political scientist at Sciences Po in Paris and the University of Liege in Belgium.

Can Lecornu make it? 

Both the left and far-right condemned Lecornu’s appointment. Still, he struck an optimistic tone, stating he can bring a “more creative, technical, and serious” approach to negotiations with opposing groups in the parliament. “We are going to need real shifts — not just on form but also on substance. We can do this. There is no impossible path,” he said after taking office. 

Analysts are skeptical. “If he manages to navigate the volatile political climate and to broker fragile deals with both Socialists and at least some members of the National Rally (RN), he may succeed. However, his government will most likely also fall within months or a year, given that no political stability is possible under the current National Assembly composition,” says Kolesnyk. 

The broader political context is bleak. The far-left, led by groups like La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), continue to advocate for an “unrealistic welfare state” opposing budget cuts. The far-right, meanwhile, prefers another snap election, betting on rising poll numbers, with support standing at around 31-33 percent.  

“I don't think it's going to work and make a more stable government,” Gemenne tells TRT World, referring to Lecornu’s chances. In order to survive and avoid another no-confidence vote situation, Lecornu’s new government needs to make some compromise with the left on the budget, he adds. 

Dupuy also rates chances of the Lecornu government’s success as “not very high.” If Lecornu proposes the same budget as his predecessor, then he will also have to face censorship in parliament, the French academic says. In order to succeed, Lecornu must give up plans like the pension reform, he adds. 

Is Macronism going down? 

The recent no-confidence vote signals that Macron's political model may be reaching its limits, according to Gemenne. He's very unpopular and clearly he's losing ground at least on the domestic side, he says. 

If the Lecornu government also collapses, things can get tougher for Macron, adds Dupuy. “If this goes on, then we cannot govern anymore. This is why some are arguing that we should change the president with an early election,” he says. But he does not think that Macron will accept this kind of political solution.  

Internationally, Macron has bolstered France’s standing in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly through support for Ukraine and NATO security. But at home, his inability to build consensus has left French politics adrift.

The French political situation will be “quite unstable until the next presidential election,” predicts Gemenne. Kolesnyk agrees with him. 

Looking ahead to 2027, Gemenne adds that there is danger of a showdown between the extreme left and the extreme right. “I would say that's even the most likely situation.”