The transatlantic alliance, once the bedrock of European defence, is showing deep fractures. The United States' increasing unilateralism, compounded by tensions among key NATO allies, has raised serious doubts about the alliance's long-term viability.

As Washington recalibrates its global priorities, Europe is left searching for a reliable security partner. Amid this uncertainty, Türkiye is stepping into the void—not as a mere participant, but as a strategic anchor in Europe’s evolving security architecture.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has openly acknowledged this shift, arguing, "I think this crisis might also offer a big opportunity for our European friends, too. Diminishing the dependency on the United States in very strategic areas would make them, and all of us, much more resilient in the face of economic and geopolitical crises."

His words highlight an emerging consensus: Europe must recalibrate its security architecture to reduce reliance on Washington and embrace new partnerships—with Türkiye at the centre.

Transactional commitments and NATO divisions

The foundation of NATO’s collective security is under unprecedented scrutiny. A more unilateral United States has left allies questioning the alliance’s durability. 

President Donald Trump's return to office has indicated a significant shift in Washington’s foreign policy, marked by a growing reluctance to maintain the liberal international order. The re-emergence of an America First doctrine under Trump’s second term has reinforced stark divisions within NATO. Trump's threats toward allies, such as Canada and Denmark, his push for direct negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, and his transactional approach to security commitments have undermined NATO's traditional deterrent strength. 

With Washington becoming increasingly unreliable, European allies are compelled to consider the sustainability of the conventional security structure amid a landscape of multipolar challenges and rapidly evolving threats.

Deterrence: The pillar of NATO's security

At NATO’s core lies the principle of deterrence—an attack on one is an attack on all. More than just a legal clause, it’s a concept enshrined in Article 5, that embodies the raison d'être of NATO, reinforcing the alliance’s commitment to mutual defence.

Historically, unity has been NATO’s strength, but this foundational pillar is cracking.

French President Macron’s 2019 remark that NATO was “brain-dead” was prophetic. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine briefly unified the alliance, deeper fractures remain. Disagreements over defence spending, military strategy, and US unilateralism have eroded trust among member states. 

Europe has begun reassessing its security framework. Last month’s diplomatic clash between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump, coupled with Trump’s open hostility toward the EU, has forced European nations to confront their dependence on US military backing, and bolster their own defence capabilities. 

Security concerns in Europe led Germany's Friedrich Merz to request sharing nuclear initiatives with Britain and France (Reuters).

Particular concern over troop deployments and nuclear guarantees, has alarmed NATO allies, adding urgency to this reckoning. In response, Germany's chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz proposed nuclear-sharing initiatives with Britain and France. Furthermore, the European Commission’s ReArm Europe initiative—an ambitious €800 billion military modernisation plan—signals Europe’s serious intent to enhance self-reliance.

But can Europe truly build an autonomous security architecture without a credible strategic partner?

Türkiye: Europe’s indispensable security partner

As the United States shifts its priorities, European nations increasingly look toward likeminded nations — including the UK, Canada, Norway, and crucially, Türkiye. Once sidelined, Ankara has become indispensable for Europe’s security equation.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has emphasised the need to strengthen EU-Türkiye cooperation, recognising Ankara’s role in fortifying the continent’s security framework.

With two-thirds of Europe’s arms imports coming from the United States, Türkiye’s growing defence industry is emerging as a key alternative supplier and strategic partner for joint projects. Landmark deals such as the Turkish naval defence firm STM’s agreement with Portugal, marking the first naval ships agreement between Türkiye and a NATO member, and the joint venture between Italy's Leonardo and Türkiye's Baykar to produce next-generation drones, illustrate Ankara’s growing influence in reshaping Europe’s defence landscape.

Yet, cooperation cannot be limited to military collaboration alone. Diplomatic and economic ties must also be strengthened. 

Türkiye's role in NATO extends beyond military collaboration, as its strengthening economic and diplomatic ties help bolster regional stability (Reuters).

A wake-up call for European autonomy

NATO’s future hinges on how Europe navigates its growing divergences with Washington. One path forwards is what some call transactional NATO, where the US continues its hard-line approach, demanding higher European defence spending while reducing its own security commitments. While this scenario preserves NATO’s structure, it risks exacerbating internal divisions, with some nations willing to meet US demands and others resisting Washington’s pressure.

Alternatively, Europe could embrace strategic autonomy, led by France and Germany, working towards a more self-reliant security framework. Proponents argue this would free Europe from the unpredictability of American leadership. However, this vision is far from straightforward. Political disagreements between EU member states and longstanding dependencies on US military technology pose significant hurdles to creating a credible, independent European defence force.

The most extreme possibility is alliance fragmentation, where NATO’s cracks widen beyond repair, forcing individual nations into isolated defence postures. A US withdrawal from European security commitments could leave member states vulnerable to external threats, creating an unpredictable and unstable security landscape. While unlikely in the immediate future, this scenario underscores why Europe must take proactive steps to ensure its security is not dictated by Washington’s shifting policies.

Despite these uncertainties, reduced reliance on the United States presents Europe with an opportunity to redefine its security future. This transition will require forging deeper cooperation, investing in collective defence capabilities, and—most crucially—acknowledging Türkiye’s indispensable role. Ankara’s strategic positioning, growing defence industry, and military capabilities make it a natural partner in shaping a resilient European security order.

Ultimately, NATO’s survival will be determined by a single, pressing question: Can Europe continue to depend on US commitments, or is it time for a decisive strategic pivot?