Baba UmarWashington DC — In February, when US President Donald Trump hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House, both sides reaffirmed the strength of the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership and announced a raft of measures to further deepen their ties.
However, the US-India relationship has since undergone a significant shift over trade and other issues. Foreign policy analysts suggest that New Delhi's friendship with Washington, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal rapport with Donald Trump, may not necessarily benefit India in trade negotiations with America.
"Trump does not distinguish between friends and foes in the tariff war he has initiated, which appears to be his primary focus at the moment. Therefore, India may not be able to benefit from any diplomatic goodwill as it has in the past," Praveen Donthi, India-based senior analyst with International Crisis Group, told TRT World.
"New Delhi's transactional approach to international relations has run into a similar approach from President Trump," Donthi added.
Prior to Modi's White House visit, Trump directed the US Secretary of State to alter Iran's Chabahar port sanction waivers, despite India's millions in investment there.
Subsequently, the US deported approximately 104 undocumented Indian immigrants.
Indian officials alleged that the migrants, who were deported as part of a crackdown initiated by the Trump administration, were subjected to restraints, including being handcuffed and chained at the legs, which impeded their ability to use the washroom.
Then, on February 13, 2025 when Modi met Trump, the US leader announced the "Fair and Reciprocal Plan" on trade.
The White House issued a "Fact Sheet" that highlighted "endless examples where our trading partners do not give the US reciprocal treatment".
It also cited India, noting that the US average applied Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff on agricultural goods is 5 percent, while India's average applied MFN tariff is 39 percent.
"India also charges a 100 percent tariff on US motorcycles, while we only charge a 2.4 percent tariff on Indian motorcycles," it said.
In March, bilateral talks gained momentum, and in April, Indian officials stated that a deal could be finalised before the July 9 deadline set by Trump.
Failed trade talks, India-Pakistan truce
In May, when India and Pakistan engaged in a four-day tit-for-tat exchange, during which Pakistan downed several Indian fighter jets and the conflict appeared to escalate into a major war, Trump announced a ceasefire, and hostilities immediately ceased on both sides.
Islamabad promptly welcomed Trump's mediation efforts and subsequently nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. India, however, maintains that Trump played no part in brokering a truce between the South Asian rivals.
Following recent goading by the opposition Congress to declare, "inside the parliament that Donald Trump is lying", Modi, without naming Trump, claimed, "No world leader asked us to stop the operation."
Since May 7, Trump and his administration have asserted nearly 30 times that the US stepped in to prevent a full-scale war between India and Pakistan.
In June, Trump stated that a "significant" trade agreement with India was imminent. In the same month, Indian officials told Reuters news agency that trade negotiations had encountered an obstacle due to disagreements on import duties, primarily concerning agricultural products.
This development diminished expectations of an agreement before July 9.
That month, Modi claimed to have declined an invitation from Trump to visit Washington DC.
Then, in the middle of July, the fifth round of trade talks, aiming to break the deadlock, failed.
Two weeks later, Trump announced the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Indian imports, and warned New Delhi of further penalties for buying Russian energy and defence equipment.
"I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. "We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World," he added.
Hours after levying tariffs on India, Trump announced a "massive" oil exploration deal with Pakistan, saying that someday, New Delhi might have to buy oil from Islamabad. It came weeks after he hosted one of Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir at a private lunch.
On July 25, at an AI summit, Trump criticised American technology firms such as Google, Microsoft, and Apple for hiring workers from India and outsourcing manufacturing to China. He demanded that the companies create jobs for Americans instead.
For its part, India stated that Washington's pressure to cease purchasing Russian oil was "unjustified and unreasonable" and that it will protect its interests.
New Delhi asserted that the US itself "continues to import uranium hexafluoride from Russia for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilisers, as well as chemicals."
India incurred Trump's wrath again on August 6 when the US president signed an order to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on the world's most populous country for purchasing Russian oil and "directly or indirectly" funding Moscow's war with Ukraine.
The new import taxes to be imposed in 21 days could put the combined tariffs on Indian goods at 50 percent.
'It's a concerning development for India'
"This is a textbook example of Trump's truculent transactionalism: He applies maximum pressure on other governments, including top partners like India, to get them to serve US commercial interests," Washington-based South Asia expert, Michael Kugelman, told TRT World.
"Trump wants more access to Indian markets, and he wants India to buy more American goods. He's willing to use tariffs as an incentive to get India to change course," Kugelman added.
Observers say New Delhi views Trump's engagement with Islamabad, such as hosting army officials and pursuing resource deals, as the US favouring Islamabad.
Indian TV commentators and pro-government analysts have for months criticised alleged US betrayal, whilst others are optimistic about resolutions.
But is the US shifting toward Pakistan, and does it anyway complicate broader US-India bilateral ties?
Donthi told TRT World that as US-Pakistan ties waned post-Afghanistan withdrawal, US-India relations grew stronger.
"However, there seems to be some rebalancing by the US, and it might remain equidistant from Islamabad and New Delhi," he said.
Kugelman, who is also the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think-tank, stressed that Trump's comments or actions regarding the India-Pakistan conflict are "less a reflection of a policy shift" toward Islamabad and more a case of "Trump being Trump."
"He projects himself as a master peace broker and deal maker, and he so naturally he’d want to place himself front and center on the talks that ended a dangerous conflict between two nuclear armed adversaries," Kugelman said.
"At any rate, for New Delhi, what matters most isn't why Trump made these claims but rather that he made the claims, and repeatedly. It’s a concerning development for India, especially against the backdrop of expanding US engagement with Pakistan and a failed US India trade deal."
India adjusting its ties with China
Another foreign policy issue where New Delhi finds itself at odds with the US is the potential for a "grand bargain" between the US and China. This has raised concerns in India about being sidelined in America's Asia policy.
While India benefits from Trump's tough stance on China, the US leader's openness to directly deal with Beijing could complicate India's strategy.
The US has been cultivating India as a counterweight to China. However, it now appears the US, under the Trump administration, is seeking to deal with Beijing directly, potentially diminishing the perceived need for New Delhi's assistance.
On Tuesday, Trump, praising his "good relationship" with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, said a trade deal with Beijing was taking shape and that he might meet President Xi. This statement came a week after officials from both countries concluded talks on tariffs in Sweden.
"There has been some anxiety in New Delhi about a possible rapprochement between Washington and Beijing. That seems to have compelled New Delhi to improve its relations with Beijing," said Dhonti of the Crisis Group.
"India needs the US as much as the US needs India to address the challenge posed by China. There may be some temporary hiccups, but I do not foresee any drastic, long-term changes in India-US relations."
Amid escalating tensions with the US, Modi's planned visit to China signals a diplomatic thaw with Beijing after seven years.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply following a military clash along their disputed Himalayan border in 2020, which resulted in the deaths of around 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers.
Beijing is also Pakistan's close ally and primary supplier of military equipment. This includes more than half of its 400-plus fighters, primarily the JF-17 but also the J-10C, some of which took part in recent four-day fighting with India.
It is unclear how the Trump administration views India's role in helping the US counter China, Kugelman said, adding this is in part because it is unclear how Trump views Beijing.
"Trump has criticised Beijing but also pledged to cooperate with it. This uncertainty likely explains New Delhi’s decision to ramp up efforts, which began before Trump was elected, to ease tensions with China," Kugelman said.
"India is hedging against Trump's unpredictability."
