Kazim AlamUS President Donald Trump’s envoy, Thomas Barrack, arrived in Beirut early this month with a categorical message for Lebanon’s political leadership: completely disarm Hezbollah in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the country’s southern regions.
Barrack, who is ambassador to Türkiye and special envoy for Syria, said that the response from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was so positive that it left the US envoy “unbelievably satisfied.”
The Lebanese government has provided Barrack with a seven-page response to which the diplomat said that American and Lebanese governments are committed to “get a resolution.”
Crushed by a six-year-long economic crisis, the current Lebanese government is the first in the country’s history to show genuine seriousness about disarming Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that simultaneously operates as a political party and a non-state militia.
It is a move that may pave the way for US aid and foreign investment into the crisis-ridden nation of 5.7 million people.
Backed by Saudi Arabia, the US proposal calls for the full disarmament of Hezbollah “within four months.”
Hezbollah refuses to disarm while Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon and attacks continue, citing past invasions and ongoing threats. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in Beirut on July 6, “We cannot be asked to soften our stance or lay down arms while [Israeli] aggression continues.”
Hezbollah’s political influence, while diminished since October 2023, remains a significant hurdle to disarmament, says Tuba Yildiz, an academic and Middle East analyst.
“Since Hezbollah’s political and military power are deeply intertwined, the group tries to buy as much time as possible in order to preserve its legitimacy and avoid disarmament,” she tells TRT World.
As for the Lebanese government, its top priority regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament is the complete withdrawal of Israel from Lebanese territory, she adds.
Hezbollah also points to rising tensions along the Lebanon-Syria border as a further security concern.
“As long as Israel has not withdrawn from Lebanon, the issue of disarmament between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah will remain unresolved,” she says.
The Lebanese government will not willingly allow Israel to emerge as the sole winner by unilaterally disarming Hezbollah, as the Lebanese military remains “very weak,” Yildiz says.
It is unclear if Barrack’s visit to Beirut and the Lebanese state’s response had any effect on a meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, DC, on July 7.
Hezbollah’s origins
Hezbollah was founded in 1982 during Lebanon’s civil war as an Iran-backed resistance movement against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Over time, it expanded its role by supporting the Palestinian cause, providing military and logistical support to Hamas, while also building significant Shia political and military power.
Despite being labelled a terrorist organisation by the US, Hezbollah has entrenched itself in Lebanon’s political system. In alliance with the Amal Movement, it holds sway over many of the Shia-allocated parliamentary seats – 27 in the 128-member legislature, with key support from influential figures like Nabih Berri, Lebanon’s long-time parliamentary speaker.
The Lebanese government operates under a power-sharing arrangement, otherwise known as the “confessional system”, ensuring that major religious communities like Sunnis, Shias, and Christians receive proportionate representation in the political setup.
The ceasefire that never was
Analysts view the US proposal for Hezbollah’s full disarmament against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire signed in November 2024, following a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah that began in September 2024.
The war erupted after Hezbollah sided with Hamas and launched “solidarity attacks” on Israel. It resulted in over 4,000 deaths and displaced nearly 1.4 million people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel has continued air strikes and ground incursions into southern Lebanon, claiming it is only targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
Yildiz points out that the Lebanese military, weakened by years of economic crisis, lacks the capacity to enforce Hezbollah’s disarmament unilaterally. The Lebanese government is wary of allowing Israel to emerge as the sole victor in this geopolitical standoff, she adds.
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East analyst at the RANE Network, offers a different perspective. He tells TRT World that the Lebanese government’s commitment to disarmament is sincere but constrained by historical realities.
“The Lebanese government’s desire to see Hezbollah disarm is genuinely sincere, given that Hezbollah has been a substantial destabilising force in the country’s security situation for decades now,” he says.
He argues that disarmament could pave the way for investments from Gulf nations and stabilise Lebanon’s economy, which has contracted nearly 40 percent since 2019 amid a deep financial crunch.
However, the government’s historical dependence on Hezbollah’s political and social influence to maintain stability complicates this ambition, Bohl adds.
Iran’s waning influence
Iran’s declining regional clout, particularly after its 12-day conflict with Israel in 2025, has weakened Hezbollah.
While Iran’s ties with Hezbollah remain intact, Tehran’s focus on protecting its national security within its borders has left the Lebanese group more exposed, Yildiz says.
If Israel achieves its goal of regime change in Iran, it could “significantly weaken” Hezbollah’s military capabilities and, in the long term, lead to its complete transformation into a political entity, she adds.
Bohl echoes this view, saying that Iran’s reduced influence has made Hezbollah more open to disarmament talks, albeit reluctantly.
“Iran’s relative decline and its lack of direct intervention to protect Hezbollah during the 2024 war is instrumental in understanding why the militants are now more open to disarmament talks,” he says.
Disillusioned by Iran’s inaction, many Hezbollah supporters are pushing the group to redefine itself as a Lebanese nationalist resistance party rather than an Iranian proxy, he adds.
“There is an argument to be made that Hezbollah may not need the same type of weapons systems if it’s no longer acting as a deterrent layer for Iran,” Bohl says.
However, he cautions that full disarmament remains unlikely in the short term, as Hezbollah seeks to adapt to disrupted supply lines and diminished access to advanced weaponry.
The Abraham Accords and Israel’s offer
A key element of the US proposal involves linking Hezbollah’s disarmament to Israel’s withdrawal from five military outposts in southern Lebanon, with the broader goal of integrating Lebanon into the Abraham Accords.
Yildiz remains sceptical, however.
“There are significant political differences between Lebanon and the countries that signed the Abraham Accords with Israel,” she says.
“Even if Hezbollah were to be completely eliminated militarily in Lebanon, it is clear that Israel would still be unwilling to withdraw from the Litani River region and five fertile areas,” she says, while referring to the parts in southern Lebanon currently occupied by Israel.
Yildiz argues that Israel’s history of occupation in Lebanon makes Beirut’s participation in the Abraham Accords “extremely difficult, if not impossible”.
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982, occupying the south until Hezbollah drove them out in 2000.
“If such an agreement were ever reached, Hezbollah would lose its political relevance and influence in Lebanon,” she says.
The potential for renewed civil strife in Lebanon looms large if Hezbollah resists disarmament.
Bohl warns of “protests, strikes, or isolated violent incidents” if the government pushes too hard. The government aims to use the disarmament talks to secure foreign aid without provoking instability, he says.
“Hezbollah’s overarching interest is to slow-walk disarmament talks in order to gain time to rebuild and restore legitimacy after the bruising war with Israel,” Bohl says.
