The war in Ukraine may be approaching a pivotal moment. After high-level negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Kiev has agreed to a 30-day interim ceasefire proposed by Washington. In response, the US has resumed military aid and intelligence sharing, shifting the dynamics of the conflict yet again. While this proposal puts the onus on Russia to respond, concerns remain that it may only serve to freeze the front lines rather than resolve the war.

As these developments unfold, one question remains: what role will Türkiye play in shaping the long-term peace process?

Unlike Western powers that have taken a hardline stance against Moscow, Türkiye has positioned itself as a pragmatic mediator, balancing relations with both Russia and the West.

This strategy is not new—Ankara has long sought to leverage its geopolitical positioning to maintain regional stability while asserting its strategic autonomy. However, with peace negotiations now gaining traction, Türkiye’s diplomatic and military influence may prove decisive in ensuring a sustainable resolution.

The mediator between East and West

Since the onset of the conflict, Türkiye has walked a careful diplomatic tightrope. As a NATO member, it has condemned Russia’s aggression and affirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

At the same time, it has refused to impose sanctions on Moscow, maintaining trade and security dialogue with Russia. This dual approach allowed Türkiye to facilitate early ceasefire negotiations held in Istanbul in 2022 and broker a vital Black Sea grain agreement to mitigate global food shortages.

Even amid rising tensions, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has remained steadfast in advocating for dialogue. While Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently reiterated Ankara’s willingness to host further peace talks, underscoring Türkiye’s commitment to achieving a "just and lasting peace."

This aligns with Ankara’s broader foreign policy—preventing an escalation that could destabilise the Black Sea region, a scenario that would pose a direct security threat to Türkiye itself.

Geopolitical motivations

While peace is the main drive for Türkiye’s mediation efforts, strategic interests are also at play. A prolonged war in Ukraine could disrupt regional trade routes, affect energy supplies, and deepen economic uncertainty. 

Furthermore, should the conflict escalate into a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, Türkiye would find itself in an increasingly precarious position. By maintaining open channels with both Moscow and Kiev, Ankara ensures that it retains leverage in future security negotiations.

Türkiye’s critical role was further emphasised during the recent European security summit in London. Unlike traditional EU powers, which are aligned with Washington’s approach, Türkiye’s inclusion highlighted its distinct position as a bridge between Western security frameworks and broader Eurasian interests.

While some European leaders remain hesitant on Ankara’s EU accession, others, like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, met President Erdogan on March 12 and discussed regional stability.

Then there’s NATO’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has urged the EU to improve relations with Türkiye, emphasising the need to strengthen collective security and defense capabilities amid shifting US policies.

Türkiye’s NATO dynamics 

Türkiye remains deeply embedded within NATO’s security architecture. The unpredictability of US policy—especially under shifting administrations—has led European leaders to reassess their strategic dependencies. Just days ago, US President Donald Trump’s wavering stance on NATO commitments raised doubts about Washington’s reliability, reinforcing the need for Europe to develop independent security structures. In this context, Türkiye’s robust military capacity makes it an indispensable security partner.

At the same time, Ankara has pursued a more assertive defense policy, investing in indigenous military technology and expanding its influence in key conflict zones. 

Its drone industry has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s defence, while its expanding naval presence underscores its interest in maintaining control over Black Sea security.

The road ahead

With the US re-engaging diplomatically and a ceasefire on the table, Türkiye must now decide how to assert its role in the next phase of peace efforts. 

If Russia accepts the proposal, Ankara could act as a guarantor, ensuring that terms are upheld while negotiating further confidence-building measures. However, if Moscow rejects the offer, Türkiye’s influence may be tested as it navigates growing pressures from both NATO allies and its economic ties with Russia.

Beyond the immediate ceasefire, Ankara is also eyeing long-term benefits. In exchange for its diplomatic efforts, Türkiye could push for renewed EU accession talks, demand concessions on visa-free travel for Turkish citizens, and seek to upgrade its customs agreement with the bloc.

Given its role in shaping European security, it could also push for greater recognition of its status within NATO’s strategic framework.

Whether or not the ceasefire holds, Ankara’s diplomatic manoeuvres ensure that it remains at the heart of discussions shaping the post-war order. Its ability to maintain strategic autonomy while balancing relationships with both NATO allies and Russia further cements its role as an indispensable player in global diplomacy.