Climate change and rising temperatures could threaten up to a third of global food production, according to new research published in Nature Food on Tuesday.
Researchers at Aalto University in Finland analyzed the impact of future changes in temperature, precipitation, and aridity on the growing conditions of 30 major food crops globally.
According to the study, rising temperatures will significantly shrink the global land available for staple crops such as rice, maize, wheat, potato, and soybean, which supply over two-thirds of the world’s food energy.
Low-latitude regions will suffer far worse impacts than mid- or high-latitude regions. With varying levels of warming, up to half of crop production in these areas could be at risk as climate conditions become unfavorable, leading to a significant decline in crop diversity.
Less protein and calories
Sara Heikonen, the doctoral researcher who led the study, stressed that the loss of crop diversity would drastically reduce the range of food available for cultivation, adding: "That would reduce food security and make it more difficult to get adequate calories and protein."
Congolese entrepreneur turns a glut of farm produce in Lumbumbashi city into a thriving food processing firm that has set its sights on the international market.
“Tropical root crops such as yam, which are key to food security in low-income regions, as well as cereals and pulses, are particularly vulnerable. In sub-Saharan Africa, the region that would be impacted most, almost three-quarters of current production is at risk if global warming exceeds 3°C,” Heikonen said.
In contrast, mid- and high-latitude regions are expected to retain productive land and increase crop diversity, with crops like pears potentially growing in northern areas.
Globalised food systems
Matti Kummu, the senior author of the study, noted that while climate conditions may be favorable, warming could bring new pests and extreme weather, which may still disrupt agriculture, making the situation more complex.
“If we want to secure our food system in the future, we need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects,” Heikonen said.
City authorities should start deliberately setting aside land for food production. They should also enter into production agreements with farmers and provide assured markets for the crops grown.
“Even if the biggest changes are in equatorial regions, we will all feel the effects through the globalised food system. We need to act together to address these problems,” she added.
