Tooba MasoodMillions of people in Pakistan and elsewhere watched in horror as 13 members of the same family were swept away in a flash flood one by one in the scenic Swat valley.
One moment, men, women and children were taking selfies on the almost dry bank of the Swat River, and the next moment, they were left stranded on an island the size of a car.
Officials say the water in the Swat River, which is fed by glaciers in the Hindu Kush mountains, rose dramatically within minutes.
Across the country, more than 32 people have been killed due to heavy rains and flooding, with government officials and experts insisting that it’s time to revisit settlements that have encroached on riverbeds and steep terrains.
“The point is that such tragedies are avoidable,” says Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s former minister for climate change and environment.
“If we factor in the reality that our structural and immediate responses to extreme weather triggered by climate change are way below par. This has to change,” she tells TRT World.
A rising intensity
Although Pakistan has experienced 29 significant floods since its independence in 1947, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) says severe flooding has become an almost annual event since 2010, marking a worrying shift in both frequency and intensity.
In 2022, Pakistan saw nearly triple the average rainfall in some areas, leading to catastrophic flooding that displaced millions.
Experts say rains are getting heavier, less predictable and more intense due to the impact of climate crisis.
Warmer temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more moisture, which leads to sudden cloudbursts and extreme downpours. And the mountainous regions in country ;s north have become particularly vulnerable.
A ticking time bomb
Northern Pakistan is home to more than 7,000 glaciers – more than almost anywhere outside the polar regions.
But rising temperatures are causing these glaciers to melt rapidly. This has led to a growing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can cause sudden floods triggered when glacial lakes burst their banks.
In these areas, deforestation has added to the problem, as a lack of trees which can hold soil and absorb rainwater, sudden downpours are turning into destructive torrents.
Climate change advocate Afia Salam tells TRT World that flash floods in mountainous regions are becoming common due to a mix of intense rainfall and changes in how water flows through these areas.
"Cloudbursts or unusually heavy rains, like those in 2010 and 2020, worsen the situation," she says.
"In regions such as Kashmir and parts of Balochistan, the steep terrain means water flows downstream very quickly, which is why these events are called flash floods. It’s something that happens in many mountainous areas.”
When riverbeds are obstructed by structures like hotels or roads, it changes the natural hydrology. "This can increase the speed and force of the water, which contributes to damage," she says.
Monsoon rains, which used to start in mid-July, are also starting earlier in late June, and the volume of rainfall has gone up.
Even in urban cities such as Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad, flash floods have started causing havoc during moderate rainfall as stormwater drains have been encroached by high-rise and other built-up structures, experts say.
Imran Khalid of Sustainable Development Policy Institute says when talking about flash flooding, we have to understand that floods are a natural part of the terrain, in Pakistan and around the world.
“Similarly, flash flooding is quite normal. It has been happening ever since Earth came into being,” he says.
For example, he says, if it rains on the hills and the water comes down through the culverts and small drainage avenues, by the time it gets to a particular point at the bottom of that hill, it has picked up a certain amount of speed.
And if the rest of the water accumulates in it, then its speed increases as it goes down. So when there is heavy rainfall in a short period, it adds to the volume and adds to speed of the water that is going through a particular area.
According to Khalid, climate crisis exacerbates the situation.
“It is going to exacerbate the situation in terms of the rainfall intensity: the rainfall, the melting of ice would add to the volume of water that is going down a particular area and then because of that, there can be an increase in flash floods,” he says.
Pakistan, Khalid says, is what is known as the third pole, as it has one of the highest numbers of glaciers outside the North and South poles.
“Because of this, we are vulnerable if the glaciers start melting. If they melt and the water comes into the rivers, it is not going to have an impact on us if there is no population in the area.
But what’s making us vulnerable here, again, is how we’ve developed our cities, how we are growing.”
