When US President Donald Trump shook hands with Ahmed Alsharaa, Syria’s new president, at the Saudi royal palace last week and pledged to lift sanctions, it marked a striking shift in his Middle East diplomacy. This gesture has largely pushed Israel to the margins. The sentiment differs starkly from how it started for Tel Aviv five months before.

In January, Trump’s return to the US presidency for a second term was met with enthusiasm in Tel Aviv. Israelis described him as “Israel’s greatest friend ever to serve in the White House,” and the Netanyahu government embraced hopes and expectations that Trump might once again reshape the Middle East in Israel’s favour.

Before Trump’s term, in his address to the US Congress on July 10, 2024—his fourth such appearance, Netanyahu expressed only cursory and formal thanks to Biden, whereas offering a more extensive and enthusiastic acknowledgement of Trump’s contributions to Israel during his presidency. 

Netanyahu’s expressions of gratitude toward Trump elicited a notably stronger reaction from the audience. The speech, delivered amid the tenth month of Israel’s military offensive in Gaza—widely condemned by international observers as genocidal— drew significant backlash and public uproar.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators protested day and night in Washington and New York, labelling Netanyahu a “war criminal” and demanding his arrest. In his address, Netanyahu, however, dismissed the demonstrations, controversially referring to the citizens of his host country as “fools.”

Yet, within five months of Trump’s inauguration, things changed.  A noticeable cooling began to define the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu. 

The once-close alliance gave way to mutual distrust and open disagreement. One of the most concrete indications of this shift was Trump’s decision to exclude Israel from his Middle East tour —an omission widely interpreted as diplomatic distancing. 

This development raises a pressing question: What led to the deterioration of what was once a remarkably close partnership?

Catalogue of disagreements

A close reading of US–Israel relations in recent months reveals mounting tension over four key issues: Iran’s nuclear file, the Houthi movement in Yemen, emerging political order in Syria, and the future of Gaza.

Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, US–Iran relations have been fraught. Diplomatic ties were severed following the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran, and contacts have since been largely covert or indirect.

Despite persistent structural antagonism and disagreements, there have been moments of cautious engagement, most notably the 2015 nuclear accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It demonstrated that diplomacy could serve. As an effective mechanism for de-escalating tensions and opening new venues in the Iran-West relations. However, Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 disrupted what limited the diplomatic momentum.

Yet in his second term, Trump has pivoted. After months of clandestine contacts, Washington and Tehran resumed political negotiations in Muscat on April 13, 2025. Trump repeatedly insisted that he preferred diplomacy to war, emphasising and repeatedly stating that he did not wish to be drawn into a military confrontation with Iran.

This stance clashed with Netanyahu. Behind the Israeli Prime Minister’s surprise visit to Washington in April 2025 was a proposal for a military attack against Iran. But to Netanyahu’s dismay, Trump used a televised appearance in the Oval Office to publicly announce the resumption of talks with Tehran. While Trump advocated a diplomatic resolution, Netanyahu doubled down on hardline rhetoric, frequently invoking the 2003 Libya model and calling for total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

In short, while Trump’s first term was defined by “maximum pressure” on Iran, his second has veered toward negotiation. Israeli efforts to derail the diplomatic process which reportedly included covert initiatives to sabotage the talks. This has led to the perception of Israel as a “spoiler”, prompting Trump to recalibrate relations and distance himself from Tel Aviv.

On Yemen, Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of US forces from the Red Sea, even as Houthi attacks targeted Israel, unnerved Israeli officials, creating a deep sense of mistrust and disappointment in Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel’s efforts to destabilise post-war Syria—pushing for fragmentation—have found little favour in Washington. Israeli bombings on Southern Syria have contributed to the growing friction in the bilateral relations between Tel Aviv and Washington.

When Netanyahu raised concerns about Türkiye and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump brusquely replied: “Erdogan is my friend. We have a very good relationship.”

That said, President Trump’s trust in President Erdogan was notably demonstrated during the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations held in Istanbul. By dispatching Secretary of State Marco Rubio to participate in these talks mediated by Türkiye, Trump underscored the significance he attributed to the negotiation process.

The Israeli war on Gaza has revealed yet more fault lines. Before taking office, Trump pledged to end the conflict and later proposed a development plan for Gaza, likening it to an “Riviera of the Middle East.” In Tel Aviv, the initiative was seen as a direct challenge to Israel’s military objectives. Netanyahu, intent on reigniting the war, effectively sidelined Trump’s project vision.

Meanwhile, at a time when Israel launched a new ground offensive titled “Gideon’s Chariots,” the United States secured the release of Edan Alexander—the last remaining American in Gaza—on May 12, 2025, without coordinating with Tel Aviv. This move has been widely viewed as yet another sign of the deepening rupture in relations between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Taken together, these divergences indicate not just personal estrangement but a deeper political divergence— rooted in Trump’s first-term experience and a recalibrated strategic outlook and substantive political outlook.

TRT Global - Trump reportedly cuts ties with Netanyahu over 'manipulation' concerns

Israeli Army Radio says US president Donald Trump has cut off direct contact with Benjamin Netanyahu amid growing bilateral tensions.

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Crisis of trust

During his first term, Trump believed he had delivered unprecedented support to Israel: moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognising the city as Israel’s “capital”, facilitating the Abraham Accords, suppressing critical academic voices, and even floating the idea of forcibly displacing Gaza’s population.

Yet Trump felt slighted and disappointed. He expected gratitude, especially from Netanyahu—who congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 victory, despite Trump’s refusal to concede.

What seems to truly unsettle Trump, however, was Netanyahu’s persistent interference in American politics. Much like during the Obama and Biden administrations, Netanyahu continued to cultivate influence in Washington through lobbying networks.

To Trump, this amounted to manipulation. He came to view Netanyahu not as an ally, but as a political opportunist—concerned chiefly with his own survival, and disloyal when it mattered.

According to Trump, Netanyahu seeks to consolidate his own power by manipulating US politics. In this context, Trump’s dissatisfaction extends beyond Netanyahu’s failure to show gratitude to include his interference in the Middle East policy.

Conflicting regional visions

Trump’s recent visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar marked a new chapter in US–Gulf relations.

At the core of the trip were economic and defence deals, including a $142 billion arms agreement with Saudi Arabia. Trump sees the region less as a security flashpoint and more as a lucrative market.

The old “security-for-oil” bargain that has underpinned the US-Gulf relations for decades is being reshaped by multipolar competition. Both China and Russia have made inroads into energy markets, prompting the Gulf states to adopt more balanced foreign policies. 

It appears that Trump is not only focused on maintaining security cooperation but also managing to outright block the Gulf's expanding economic ties with China and Russia.

Trump’s approach—economic pragmatism over ideological alignment—clashes with Netanyahu’s militarism. The Israeli Prime Minister’s maximalist posture has alienated Gulf capitals, which now see him as an obstacle to regional stability. These states have pointedly identified Netanyahu’s policies toward the Palestinians as the primary barrier to development and reconciliation.

In this context, Trump’s shift signals a broader transformation: the emergence of an economic-security hybrid model, replacing military dominance with commercial diplomacy.

Trump’s Gulf tour was more than a diplomatic swing. It highlighted a seismic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. 

At one end of the emerging fault line stands Netanyahu, increasingly isolated and dogged by his aggressive policies. At the other are Gulf states prioritising development, Türkiye positioning itself as a diplomatic power, and Washington recalibrating its influence.

As this fault line deepens, it will not only expose Tel Aviv’s isolation but also bring greater visibility to the Gulf’s economic diplomacy.