Ghana's cocoa industry, hit by unfavourable weather conditions and increased smuggling, is likely to miss its output target of 650,000 metric tonnes of this season, data from regulator Cocobod showed.

The world's second-largest cocoa producer has seen output fall in the two previous seasons due to reasons including diseases and illegal gold mining, which destroys cocoa plantations and reduces yields.

Cocoa arrivals were expected to improve in the 2024/25 season, which now runs till end-July, but the latest data suggest output will fall short of forecasts.

"Looking at the data and what usually comes on within May and July, it will be difficult to meet our production target of 650,000," said Frank Okyere, manager for the Ghana Cocoa Cooperatives Association, a lobby group of cocoa farmers.

Ghana could still reach 600,000 tonnes before start of next season

Data from Cocobod showed that cocoa arrivals at Ghanaian warehouses neared 570,000 tonnes as of May 2, missing 80,000 tonnes to reach the target before the season's end.

In the 2023/24 season, production figures were below 550,000 tonnes, food and agribusiness minister-designate Eric Opoku said in January.

Over the past four months, only 28,000 tonnes of cocoa were purchased compared to output of around 542,000 tonnes in January alone, data also showed.

Okyere told Reuters he believed Ghana could still reach 600,000 tonnes before the start of the next season in August, saying rains had resumed in the West African country and young pods, known as cherelles, had appeared on trees.

Cocoa smuggling

Ghana experienced a dry spell between January and April, one of the main factors behind the output shortfall, Samuel Adimado, president of Ghana's cocoa buyers' association, said.

"The January to April period is normally quiet for us because it's not peak harvest time but the issue of smuggling has definitely contributed to the stagnation of arrivals in the last four months," Adimado said.

Farmers take advantage of Ghana's porous borders to seek higher prices in neighbouring countries where cocoa may command higher premiums, Adimado added.

A top cocoa buyer located in eastern Ghana's Volta and Oti regions said some local buyers had not graded a single cocoa bean this season due to smuggling, with others abandoning operations in these areas entirely.