Sadiq S BhatWashington, DC — By early 2025, Pierre Poilievre, 55, looked like a man on the brink of power in Canada.
For nearly two years, his Conservative Party had held a commanding lead — 20 points clear of the governing Liberals, his crowds growing louder, his message tighter, simpler: axe the tax, build the homes, bring back common sense.
But politics, like weather in the Rockies, changes fast.
Now, in the last stretch before Canadians vote on April 28, what once felt like a coronation has turned into a cliffhanger.
The turning point? The reappearance of an old storm from the south — Donald Trump.
As the US president reignited tariff threats and repeatedly called Canada America's 51st state, Canadian voters grew uneasy.
The Liberals — once written off, hollowed by fatigue and the long shadow of Justin Trudeau — found oxygen.
And with Mark Carney stepping in, calm in voice and heavy with economic gravitas, the centre held. Barely, but visibly.
Trump's tariffs on Canada and vows of making it America's "51st state" have turned "dealing with Trump" into a major election issue, overshadowing economic concerns and increasing support for Liberal Party led by Mark Carney.
A solid base
Poilievre has struggled to adjust. His favourables have ticked up since the leaders’ debate, but he now trails Carney in vote efficiency — what wins seats, not just headlines.
Women, older voters and urban swing ridings have drifted away from the combative opposition leader.
Still, his base remains solid. Among young men and blue-collar workers, especially in suburban Ontario and the prairies, the message resonates: lower taxes, tougher crime laws, less bureaucracy, more pipelines.
"He was one of the first to call out the inflation crisis," a campaign aide says.
"While others were dithering, Pierre said it plainly — this is an inflation tax. Working families are being gouged to fund Ottawa."
More than half of Canadian families now say they struggle to feed themselves. It’s a stark statistic — and Poilievre repeats it like a drumbeat.
But not all of his tactics have landed. His attacks on Carney have been relentless — some say over the top — while his criticism of Trump came too little, too late. Even Conservatives privately admit he misread the room.
Trump's trade threats triggered a surge of nationalist sentiment. Carney seized the moment, painting himself as a safe pair of hands in a world turning harder.
The Liberals — briefly leaderless after Trudeau stepped down — coalesced quickly around the former Bank of Canada governor, betting his steady tone could counter Poilievre's thunder.
And for now, it's working.
Poilievre, who became leader of the opposition in September 2022, has based his campaign on a brand of economic populism.
His newly released platform promises include an estimated $75 billion in tax cuts and $35 billion in new programmes over the next four years, plus a 15 percent income tax cut, scrapping the sales tax on new homes, deep reductions to foreign aid and federal bureaucracy, and a 70 percent deficit drop.
LIUNA, the private sector construction union, gave him its backing. But critics have called the numbers fantastical.
Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet dismissed them as "magic math."
The language, too, has alienated some voters. Poilievre's penchant for provocation —calling Trudeau a "wacko," backing the trucker convoy, railing against pandemic mandates — may animate his base, but it’s turned off others.
Latest poll trackers say around 38 percent of Canadians viewed him favourably.
Women, in particular, have recoiled. Only 21 percent of women back Poilievre, compared to 34 percent of men. Among voters 55 and over, Carney leads by 18 points.
Poilievre's messaging has lately shifted. He has tried to straddle both sides — criticising Trump in passing, while warning that the Liberals have made Canada "vulnerable to its largest trading partner."
"We will stand up for our sovereignty – we will never be an American state," said Poilievre when asked about reports that Trump allegedly mentioned Canada becoming 51st state in a call with Carney.
Snap poll on April 28 has set the stage for one of Canada's most closely contested elections in recent memory. At stake: the country's direction on critical fronts — trade relations, housing crisis, soaring inflation, and sovereignty.
Time running out
It's a tightrope. And it may be too late.
One of the most dramatic collapses in recent polling memory has seen the Conservatives' once-insurmountable lead melt away.
Today, most trackers show the Liberals slightly ahead or dead even, but with an edge where it counts: in the seat-rich suburbs around Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.
In Poilievre's own riding near Ottawa, once safe, the Liberals are now poised to take it.
Still, the Conservative leader is not conceding ground.
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result," he wrote on X.
"You can't afford a 4th Liberal term of high housing costs. On April 28: Vote for Change. Vote to build homes you can afford. Vote Conservative."
In a country weary of Trudeau but unsure of Poilievre, the next few days will be decisive.
Carney, with his banker's bearing and steady cadence, may offer a softer alternative to a hard world. But Poilievre, for all his abrasiveness, has tapped into something raw and real— rage at a system that feels broken, unaccountable, rigged.
The question now: will that anger translate into ballots, or just echoes?
Because the tide has turned. And it's no longer his game to shape.
