On Monday, a French court will rule in the trial of far-right leader Marine Le Pen over an alleged fake jobs scam at the EU parliament, a verdict that could ruin her chances of standing for president in 2027.
Three-time presidential candidate Le Pen, who senses her best-ever chance to win the French presidency in 2027, has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.
However, prosecutors in the case, which also targets other top National Rally (RN) officials, have asked the court to issue Le Pen with both a jail sentence and a ban from holding public office.
The latter would come into force even if she appeals, disqualifying her from the presidential polls if the court follows the recommendation.
With her RN emerging as the single largest party in parliament after the 2024 legislative elections, Le Pen believes she has the momentum to finally take the Elysee in 2027 on the back of public concern over immigration and the cost of living.
She was also instrumental in toppling the government of then prime minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence vote last year, highlighting her influence.
Should she fall, waiting in the wings is her protege and RN party leader, Jordan Bardella, just 29, who is not under investigation in the case. But there are doubts even within the party whether he has the experience for a presidential campaign.
Le Pen took over as head of the then-National Front (FN) in 2011 but rapidly took steps towards making the party an electoral force and shaking off the legacy of its co-founder and her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who died earlier this year.
She renamed it the National Rally.
Besides Le Pen, her party is also in the dock.
The RN risks a fine of $4.6 million, less than half of which would be suspended.
A total of 24 people are in the dock, including nine former members of the European Parliament and their 12 parliamentary assistants.
Prosecutors last year asked that Le Pen be given five years in prison with three suspended and the two years potentially served outside of jail with a bracelet, a 300,000 euro ($324,000) fine, and a five-year ban on holding office.
