Kazim AlamNegotiators from Iran and E3 – a European diplomatic coalition comprising the UK, France, and Germany – have met in Istanbul as Tehran seeks to build on the momentum of US-led nuclear negotiations that started early in April.
The Istanbul meeting follows a crucial deal proposal – the first since the renewal of nuclear talks last month – that the Trump administration handed over to Iran during the fourth round of negotiations in Muscat, Oman.
President Trump confirmed on May 13 that he had presented “an olive branch” to the Iranians, but the offer would not last forever. He also claimed that the US and Iran were “close to a deal” as the ongoing talks were “very serious” in nature, he said.
The Iranian side has also indicated its willingness to get rid of highly enriched uranium meant for nuclear weapons in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.
Joost Hiltermann, special adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, tells TRT World that a nuclear agreement would be possible only if it “strikes a balance” between Iran’s demand for preserving its nuclear infrastructure for civilian purposes and US demand for strict limits on enrichment.
“(The agreement) is not possible if the US insists on zero enrichment, (which is) an Iranian red line. If the US drops that extreme demand, we’re back to something like the JCPOA of 2015, without calling it that,” he says, while referring to the Obama-era nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from in 2018 under his “maximum pressure” campaign.
“There appears to be a will to find an agreement on all issues, and so that is grounds for optimism,” Hiltermann says.
The three European powers have decided to trigger ‘snapback’ sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal if no new deal is reached by August. Under the snapback mechanism, signatories to the 2015 deal reserve the right to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of the 2015 agreement.
Differences over enrichment levels
Under the JCPOA, Iran had agreed to cap uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent – a level suitable for nuclear power, but far below the 90 percent needed for weapons-grade material. Iran also reduced its uranium stockpile to 300 kilograms from thousands of kilograms.
Tehran considers uranium enrichment its non-negotiable right. It has shown openness to limiting enrichment levels and stockpile sizes as part of the deal. But it rejects dismantling the nuclear infrastructure, citing its need for civilian purposes.
There are conflicting statements from the US on the issue of enrichment. Initially, the Trump administration demanded a total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear programme.
However, recent reports indicate that the new US deal proposal includes the Trump administration’s parameters for an Iranian civilian nuclear programme.
Proposals under discussion include capping enrichment, reducing stockpiles, and enhancing oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), resembling the terms of the 2015 JCPOA.
In return, Iran seeks the lifting of US sanctions, which have crippled its economy. Sanctions have limited its ability to trade with the outside world as local businesses can’t use SWIFT, the mainstay of the global payments network.
Tehran demands guarantees that the US will not abandon a new deal, as it did in 2018. The US has said it is open to sanctions relief, but ties it to strict nuclear compliance.
“The reality from the Iranian side is that they desperately need sanctions relief owing to almost a decade now of crippling US-led sanctions,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East analyst at the RANE Network risk intelligence consultancy, tells TRT World.
He says both Iran and the US appear more open to compromise than they have in recent years.
“Trump is in his final term and this is a significant legacy issue for him. The failure to find a new nuclear deal would be a significant stain on his historical record,” he says.
Tehran says it will not negotiate away what it stresses is its peaceful nuclear programme.
Sticking point: ballistic missiles
The US and Israel have been pushing for limits on Iran’s ballistic missile programme, arguing it could deliver nuclear warheads.
Iran refuses to negotiate on missiles, saying these are essential for self-defence.
Bohl says Iran may be willing to discuss the ballistic missiles programme, even if just to generate goodwill.
“But I don't see them offering any significant concessions on that front,” he says, adding that ballistic missiles are one of Iran’s “few effective conventional deterrents”.
Removing that will essentially disarm Iran's military from defending and deterring its adversaries like Israel, he adds.
Trump is now leaning more towards dovish voices within his administration in order to avoid another war. This makes it possible for the previous sticking points – ending the ballistic missiles programme and a full-scale dismantling of the military nuclear programme – to fall by the wayside, Bohl says.
Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group says businesses will not be eager to invest in Iran even if international sanctions are lifted.
“(That is) because they won’t trust the Trump administration not to change its mind down the line.”
