On June 15, when Iran launched a counter-strike against Israel, a crowd of Palestinians around al Aqsa, Islam’s third-holiest site located in occupied East Jerusalem, looked up and didn’t flinch at the sight of missiles flying overhead.
Despite Israel’s latest military aggression against Iran, there was no respite for the starving population in Gaza on the other side of the fractured land, who have been enduring the harshest chapters of a genocidal war by the Zionist state.
But for once, the shimmering warheads in the sky weren't meant for them. Only, they were close enough to raise fears of an old Zionist conspiracy.
Al Aqsa Mosque lies some 70 kilometres from Tel Aviv and about 150 kilometres from Tamra and Haifa, two of Iran’s recent targets. Though kilometrically distant from the blast zones, in missile terms, it is uncomfortably close.
“Honestly, this is the most favourable moment they have had,” Middle East expert Zahide Tuba Kor tells TRT World.
“Israel could launch a ballistic missile at Al Aqsa Mosque through its Mossad agents in Iran, destroy the mosque, and then pin the blame on Iran,” she says.
Kor argues that in a climate where religious narratives and biblical allusions have become central to the rhetoric of Israeli leaders since October 7, 2023, it’s no longer meaningful to frame Israel’s actions in Gaza as merely political or strategic.
“Under normal circumstances, this would sound like a full-blown conspiracy theory, completely irrational. But no one can say Israel has been acting rationally since October 7.”
She believes striking the holy site in the fog of war would offer Israel the perfect cover to advance its goals while simultaneously turning regional outrage toward Iran.
In a viral video that resurfaced amid the ongoing hostilities, an extremist Israeli rabbi named Yosef Mizrachi is heard laying out that very scenario.
“If it were up to me, I would bomb Al Aqsa Mosque and say it was an Iranian missile to provoke a conflict between Arabs and Iranians,” he says, in a word-for-word translation from Hebrew.
Historians say there is little reason to believe that a plan as such would be out of bounds for those seeking long-term strategic gains.
“In such a scenario, they would kill two birds with one stone: further deepen the existing Sunni-Shia divide, and begin conditioning the Muslim world to the idea that Al Aqsa could one day be destroyed,” notes Zekeriya Kursun, the head of the History Department at Fatih Sultan Mehmet Vakif University.
While Israeli officials often insist they have no intention of changing the status quo at the mosque premises, since at least 2019, they have allowed Jewish prayer at the site under police protection.
The Israeli government also supports institutions that actively pursue this vision. Among them is the Temple Mount movement.
The explicitly stated purpose of the group is to see a Jewish temple built within the 1,300-year-old complex revered as the Noble Sanctuary, where the Al Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock now stand.
“The Temple Mount can never be consecrated to the name of God without removing these pagan shrines. It has been suggested that they be removed, transferred to, and rebuilt at Mecca,” the movement states on its website.
A 2018 Haaretz investigation revealed that Kenneth Abramowitz, a close confidant of Prime Minister Netanyahu, along with then-deputy defence Minister Eli Ben-Dahan, contributed significant funding to the Temple Institute, a group affiliated with that movement.
Checked off the list: Five red heifers
In 2022, activists from the Temple Institute imported five unblemished red heifers from Texas, classifying them as pets to bypass livestock restrictions. But their real purpose was religious.
According to a specific interpretation of Jewish teachings, the ashes of a completely red, unblemished cow are needed to carry out a purification ritual that would allow Jews to once again worship at a future temple.
For years, Temple-focused groups have been searching for cows without a single white or black hair for that reason.
They believe that once one is found and ritually slaughtered, its ashes can purify the Jewish people in preparation for rebuilding the ancient temple.
“Israel has already made all the preparations. They’ve produced the materials for the Temple and the ritual objects, selected the priestly caste, and trained them for their roles,” Kor says.
“The only thing left is to sacrifice the heifer and demolish Al Aqsa. And what better time than now, with the skies filled with ballistic missiles and drones?”
In recent years, religious Israeli groups have been photographed rehearsing the red heifer ritual, which they view as a necessary step toward building a Third Temple.
Some believe the ritual will usher in the coming of the messiah and, ultimately, the end of days.
Third Temple proponents hold sway in Israeli politics
In 2018, a documentary series titled The Jewish Underground revealed how members of the 1980s Jewish Underground, another temple-focused group which was once convicted for acts of violence targeting Palestinians and the Dome of the Rock, have since reentered Israeli public life, with some acquiring influential positions in politics and the settler movement.
“I'm not asking for equality at the Temple Mount; there is no equality. It's ours and ours alone,” said Moshe Feiglin, a far-right politician and then-deputy speaker of the Israeli Knesset in 2014.
Ten years later, in 2024, Israeli far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir, who oversaw the police before his current role, declared: “We say in the simplest way: it’s ours.” A year later, the rabble rouser was appointed Israel’s minister of national security, his current role.
Provocations by Temple Mount extremists, including senior members of the Israeli government, continue to inflame tensions in East Jerusalem and across Palestine and Israel.
Their repeated incursions into the compound, along with increasingly explicit calls for Jewish prayer and sovereignty over the site, fuel longstanding Palestinian fears that Israel may eventually attempt to take full control of the Al Aqsa Mosque.
Past attacks shape present fears
Historian Zekeriya Kursun tells TRT World that, if an orchestrated attack actually took place, it would be the continuation of a pattern.
“Due to the potential backlash risky moves could provoke, Israel typically prefers to pursue them indirectly, rather than through overt action,” Kursun says.
On August 21, 1969, a fire severely damaged part of the Al Aqsa Mosque, destroying the historic minbar of Saladin.
The blaze was set by Denis Michael Rohan, a Christian Australian who claimed he was acting on divine orders. He was declared mentally ill by an Israeli court and eventually deported to Australia.
The attack, at the time, raised suspicions of Israeli authorities allowing, or at least deliberately failing to prevent the incident, to advance the country’s broader agenda of weakening Al Aqsa to pave the way for its eventual destruction.
The Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron also stands as a cautionary example for many Palestinians who fear a similar fate may await Al Aqsa Mosque.
In 1994, after Israeli-American settler Baruch Goldstein massacred 29 Palestinian worshippers inside the mosque, the Israeli government responded not by restricting settler access but by physically dividing the site.
Muslim access was curtailed, while 63 percent of the mosque was permanently converted into a Jewish prayer space under heavy military control.
A centuries-long dream
When Israel was established in 1948, East Jerusalem, including the Old City where sites sacred to Muslims, Jews, and Christians are located, remained under Jordanian control.
“But Israel always saw Jerusalem and the West Bank as essential to its statehood,” Zahide Kor says.
That goal came closer to realisation in 1967, when Israel captured East Jerusalem during the Six-Day War, bringing Al Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock under its occupation for the first time.
“That’s how Israel operates — once it decides on a goal, it plans meticulously and waits patiently for the right moment,” Kor explains.
Yet decades later, she notes, despite controlling the territory, Israel’s lack of full authority over the holy site remains a lingering dissatisfaction for many.
“For more than half a century, they’ve controlled the city — and yet still haven’t managed to carry it out. That frustration runs deep,” she says.
