Ian ProudThe peace summit between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska was genuinely historic. And for more reasons than one.
After all, it is not every day that a US president meets the head of a heavily sanctioned state.
So, when President Putin’s aircraft landed in Alaska on 16 August, escorted by four American F-35 jets, and the two leaders walked the red carpet, the symbolism was immense.
But for all the brouhaha around the meeting, after a four-hour dialogue, the audience was left guessing about the endgame for Ukraine.
The signals, though, are promising, and engagement with Ukraine will form the vital next step towards a much-needed peace.
Since the start of the war in February 2022, it has been a Ukrainian priority to keep Putin in a state of global isolation.
European and US leaders cut off diplomatic engagement with Russia. From my experience as a British diplomat in Moscow from 2014 to 2019, it’s clear to me that isolating Russia has been an explicit Western policy for over a decade.
And in the UK, the corresponding live coverage on the British state broadcaster, the BBC, was overwhelmingly critical and downbeat.
The BBC’s chief correspondent, Lyse Douset, said that with the red-carpet treatment, a “red line had been crossed”. Other commentators were more critical still.
Trump had given Putin a “victory” by meeting without expecting concessions in return. An American commentator lamented US troops rolling out the red carpet for an indicted “war criminal”.
President Trump went to great lengths to make Putin feel welcome, which was in sharp contrast to his public dressing down of President Zelenskyy in the Oval office in February.
Trump had clearly thought hard about setting a constructive tone with his Russian counterpart, having not met for seven years. Trump applauding Putin on the red carpet, both leaders sharing a ride in the US President’s ‘Beast’ limousine.
Trump even let Putin speak first at the presser, in stark contrast to his approach with European visitors to the White House, where he has tended to hold court and make jokes and comments at their expense.
In his remarks, Trump also did not wave the threat of much-touted economic sanctions against Russia.
Reassuringly, both Presidents touched on the need for an end to the conflict that works for both Russia and Ukraine.
President Putin acknowledged Trump’s efforts in “helping to resolve the Ukraine issue”. That he was “sincerely interested in putting an end to it” and that any deal to end the fighting must allow for the ‘security of Russia as well.
President Trump remarked that “President Putin wants to see that [the end of the war] as much as I want to.”
No breakthrough yet
Yet, after many kind words on both sides, it was clear that the meeting fell short of a seismic breakthrough that would bring the fighting to a stop.
Trump remarked that one “major” obstacle remained in the way. That issue is likely to be Ukraine’s continuing aspiration to join NATO, which Russia has consistently identified as a root cause of the conflict.
Trump said he would need to talk to President Zelenskyy, NATO and European leaders next, as “there is no deal until there is a deal”.
Whatever the US and Russian leaders discussed, Putin will not be able to get everything that he wants, including maximalist demands that Ukraine cede territory; no one in Ukraine or the Western world will agree to this and nor should they.
This, therefore, brings into sharp focus the cold reality that no deal, either for a ceasefire or a more substantive peace process, can be reached unless both Ukraine and Russia are at the table.
Because, the Western strategy of isolating Russia has also, by its nature, prevented any possibility of peace, other than one that might be imposed by a Ukrainian military victory that has never looked likely.
In the run-up to the Alaska summit, the clamour in European capitals grew for Zelenskyy to be included in any meeting with Putin. President Zelensky said this week after a call with Trump and European leaders that "talks about us, without us, will not work."
Trump had earlier hinted that a three-way meeting involving Putin and Zelenskyy might be possible within days, though this was not mentioned in the presser.
If this preparatory meeting in Alaska paves the way for Putin and Zelenskyy to come together to reach a substantive agreement to end the fighting, then Trump will have succeeded and justified his decision to invite the Russian president to the US.
Because, as several commentators pointed out, Putin can afford to wait.
That means, by implication, that Zelenskyy has less time on his hands. Setting aside the theatrics of the Alaska summit, the tone of the Western media commentary on Ukraine has started to shift over the past month.
Zelenskyy’s previously unimpeachable image in the West has been tainted by his bungled efforts to shackle Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption bodies.
Western mainstream media outlets that hitherto backed Zelenskyy to the hilt have started to turn against him for the first time since he was elected in 2019. He no longer enjoys their full support.
The Economist spoke of Zelenskyy making a “strategic blunder”. Owen Mathews, writing in the normally hardline Telegraph newspaper, called for Zelenskyy to step down from office, saying that “he is no longer part of the solution in ending the conflict with Russia. He is part of the problem.”
More broadly, prominent journalist Gideon Rachman, who has been staunchly pro-Ukraine in his reporting, wrote for the first time, albeit painfully, that Ukraine is slowly losing and that a concession on NATO membership may become inevitable.
There has been a wake-up call in the West that complete and unequivocal backing of Zelenskyy may not be the right gamble, that the war in Ukraine is becoming more obviously unwinnable, and that it will only harm Ukraine and cause European states to foot the bill.
Yet, the historic meeting will ramp up the pressure to end this dreadful war in Ukraine, which can only be a good thing. Though I suspect that much of the pressure will fall on Zelenskyy’s shoulders.
