The election of conservative historian Karol Nawrocki as Poland’s next president by a razor-thin margin has set the cat among the pigeons, with the Eurosceptic’s elevation potentially marking a turning point for the country’s engagement with the European Union.  

The election process itself was as dramatic as Nawrocki’s victory. 

While the votes for the second round of polling were still being counted, Nawrocki’s rival Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal centrist candidate from the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), rushed to claim victory. 

However, the final results showed a narrow win for Nawrocki, who secured 50.89 percent of the votes compared to Trzaskowski's 49.11 percent. 

This marked the second presidential election defeat for Trzaskowski. In the 2020 presidential elections, he lost to the Law and Justice party’s (PiS) incumbent candidate Andrzej Duda by a similarly narrow margin of 48.97 percent to 51.03 percent respectively.

Promises and more promises

The 2025 presidential campaign turned around different promises. 

Nawrocki promised to lower value added tax (VAT) by one percent from 23 percent on his first day in office on August 6, decrease the tax burden for families with two or more children, as well simplify taxes for businesses. 

His other promises revolved around promoting the principle of priority for Poles on social services, healthcare and education, opposing the EU Migration Pact and the proposal to send troops to Ukraine, and advocating strong funding for national defence by allocating 5 percent of GDP. 

Overall, he voiced a pro-family and pro-investment logic, supporting innovation by establishing a five billion Polish zloty (USD 1.3 billion) fund for breakthrough technologies to support entrepreneurs in AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals.

As for Trzaskowski, his programme emphasised deregulation –  one of his proposals was to introduce the logic of "1 for 2", meaning each new regulation will lead to the liquidation of two existing ones. 

On defence, he voiced a will to increase military spending to 5 percent — the same promise as Nawrocki, highlighting the importance of defence for the Polish state and society in view of the Russian threat. 

One of his landmark promises was to liberalise the abortion law adopted in 2021 under the PiS government.

In a broader sense, the battle for the presidency revolved around ideology — a liberal, pro-EU, and globalist vision of Trzaskowski, versus a conservative, traditionalist, and Eurosceptic stance represented by the PiS-backed Nawrocki. 

In short, this election laid bare a nation split down the middle and intensified political tensions. 

Prime Minister Donald Tusk of the ruling KO party announced a vote of confidence in his government scheduled for June 11 — a vote, if it fails, could trigger early parliamentary elections.

European jitters

Beyond Poland’s borders, Nawrocki’s victory sent ripples through the EU. 

A potential shift away from the close alignment with Brussels adopted under the Tusk government since 2023 — and toward more sovereign policies reminiscent of the previous PiS era — may spark discontent in Paris and Berlin, while opening new opportunities with like-minded states such as Italy. 

French President Emmanuel Macron urged Poland to uphold a “strong and independent” Europe that respects the rule of law, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed cautious optimism about continued cooperation. 

However, if Nawrocki's Euroscepticism translates into concrete policies and a realignment of priorities, it could potentially jeopardise Poland’s access to EU funds — a scenario already witnessed during the PiS government.

His victory also reflects a broader European trend: growing demand for conservative ideologies, as seen in France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, and Germany. 

Unsurprisingly, Nawrocki’s win was positively received by right-wing leaders in Europe, in particular Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orban. 

It is worth noting, however, that the PiS party is right-wing, but not a far-right party, unlike Le Pen’s National Rally and Orban’s Fidesz.

In the immediate neighbourhood, Nawrocki’s victory was received coldly due to his electoral rhetoric, culminating in the signing of a declaration proposed by Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate from the far-right Confederation party, who obtained 14.81 percent of the vote in the first round of the election, behind Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. 

The logic behind signing this declaration for Nawrocki was simple — to secure Mentzen’s votes in the second round. 

Among various commitments, the eight-point declaration, presented during a live-streamed event on Mentzen’s YouTube channel, included promises to prevent Polish troops from being sent to Ukraine and to block Ukraine’s NATO membership. 

Unsurprisingly, it sparked grievances in Kiev, which seeks integration into NATO and has been waging a defensive war against Russia since 2022.

However, this promise was easy to make, as there is no consensus on Ukraine’s NATO membership, with the United States and Germany strongly opposing it. 

Moreover, concerns that Poland — Ukraine’s staunch ally and a hub for Western weapons deliveries — might shift course and align with the anti-Ukraine stance of Hungary under Orban or Slovakia under Fico are unfounded. 

Ukraine remains a cornerstone of Poland’s security, and any move to undermine Ukraine’s defence capabilities would directly endanger Poland’s own security. 

Another issue is Ukraine’s path to EU membership, which could indeed be complicated by Poland’s position under Nawrocki as president, who has made it clear that the "overdue historical issues" must be addressed before improving bilateral ties and Ukraine can join the EU. 

On a final note, Nawrocki’s victory reflects a deeper struggle within Europe: the clash between conservative and liberal ideologies. 

Poland’s key role in European security — as a powerhouse on the Eastern flank with a vibrant economy and a GDP approaching €1 trillion this year — makes Warsaw an important actor that cannot be ignored or lectured. 

At the same time, the process of reshaping Europe’s political landscape is far from complete, and the outcome of the conservative versus liberal contest remains uncertain. 

This forces all EU countries to find ways to engage with one another and establish common ground for compromise. 

For Brussels, the challenge lies in constructively engaging a Eurosceptic Poland without alienating it — something that could otherwise fuel further conservative victories across the continent.