On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, more commonly known as the Houthis, halting months of American air strikes that have devastated northern Yemen and killed hundreds. The news stirred a flicker of cautious hope in cities like Sanaa and Saada.

For many Yemenis, it marked the first real opportunity in months for the skies to fall silent. Yet on the ground, anxiety remains high.

While the ceasefire has paused American strikes on Houthi-held areas, it has done nothing to stop Israeli air raids, which continue to hammer infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah, and beyond, crippling basic services and blocking vital aid in a country already enduring one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. 

The agreement, brokered by Oman, involves only limited parties, casting doubt on its long-term impact.  

“The US framed its campaign as a response to Houthi drone and missile attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, which Washington claims threaten global trade,” political analyst Abdel Fattah Haidara told TRT World. “But on the ground, the reality is far more complex.”

The Houthis began targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea shortly after Israel launched its war on Gaza in response to October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. Intended as pressure on Israel to halt its offensive, Houthi attacks have had significant global repercussions — Red Sea port traffic has plummeted by 85 percent, while Suez Canal activity has dropped by 66 percent. 

“The Houthis openly tied their military operations to support for Hamas,” Haidara explained. “On October 31, they launched their first missile strike on Israel, positioning themselves as part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and a rising regional force.”

Throughout the war on Gaza, the Houthis continued striking commercial vessels, pausing only during a 42-day truce that began on January 19. Once Israel resumed its offensive, so did the  Houthis.

A devastating toll on civilians

In retaliation, the US launched Operation Poseidon Archer in January 2024 alongside allies including the UK, Bahrain, and Australia. But it was Operation Rough Rider, led jointly with the UK, that inflicted the heaviest damage. 

On March 17, just a day before the ceasefire announcement, a US air strike in Saada tore through the home of the al-Ruqaa family, killing 12 people, including four children and three women, and injuring 15 more. As neighbours pulled bodies from the rubble, one question echoed: “Who’s bombing us, the US, the British, the Israelis? And why are civilians paying the price?”

The casualties have mounted.

On April 28, a US strike hit a migrant detention centre in Saada, killing or wounding more than 100 people. In Sanaa, an Israeli air strike, the fifth since July, destroyed three civilian aircraft at the International Airport, knocked out power stations, and plunged the city into darkness. The strike came in response to a Houthi missile targeting Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport.

Then, in Bani al-Harith, north of Sanaa, six US missiles hit near residential areas in late April. Ibrahim, a resident who asked to withhold his full name for safety, said his wife was injured when their kitchen ceiling collapsed. “My children haven’t slept since that night,” he said. “Even if the US stops bombing, no one can guarantee Israel won’t strike again, like they did just days ago.”

Hodeidah has been similarly battered. Israeli jets dropped 50 bombs on the Bajil cement factory and the city’s port in retaliation for another Houthi missile strike on Tel Aviv. Ali Ahmed, a factory worker, narrowly survived. “We used to get food aid,” he said. “But that stopped over a year ago. Now we don’t know if we’ll die from bombs or hunger.”

A fragile breakthrough

The US justified its campaigns as necessary to protect maritime trade and reassure its Gulf allies, particularly in light of Iran’s support for the Houthis. With Hezbollah under pressure and a collapsed Assad regime in Syria, the Houthis have become a critical piece in Tehran’s regional strategy. 

“Regional and domestic rivalries add layers of fragility to this ceasefire,” said political analyst Hussein al-Sufi. “Saudi Arabia has avoided direct confrontation [with the Houthis], but the UAE is recalibrating its presence in southern Yemen. Meanwhile, the internationally recognised Yemeni government in Aden has been largely sidelined.”

In this fragmented political landscape, Oman’s mediation has been cautiously hailed by diplomats as a potential turning point, or at least a temporary reprieve in Yemen’s deepening crisis.

Washington welcomed the deal as a path towards de-escalation. But a day later, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Houthi leaders vowed to continue military exchanges, dashing hopes of broader peace.

“These strikes aren’t just targeting military sites — they’re dismantling Yemen’s economy, from ports and factories to power grids and water supplies,” Yemeni economist Ali al-Tawiti told TRT World.

The economic toll is staggering. Al-Tawiti estimates that US and Israeli strikes have cost Yemen $1.5–2 billion in direct losses, with reconstruction costs potentially reaching $5–8 billion over the next two years if attacks continue.

Compounding the crisis are deepening internal divisions between Yemen’s political factions, including the Islah Party in Marib and the Transitional Council in Aden, which are further eroding the country’s already fragile political fabric, suggested Haidara.

“This widening gap between the factions and the government in Sanaa makes genuine negotiation nearly impossible,” he said. “Unless the war on Gaza ends and new conditions emerge, which is growing increasingly unlikely by the day.” 

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.