In last month’s meeting of the European Union-Israel Association Council, Brussels expressed support for Gaza’s reconstruction, an extended ceasefire, and the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes. 

Now it is amplifying calls against Israel’s Gaza aid blockade and expressing “grave concern” over violence in the occupied West Bank, where Israeli forces continue to attack refugee camps and target entire cities in the north.

But for all the talk about shaping Gaza’s future and upholding international law, there are signs that the EU is unwilling to put its promises into action.

Here is what stands in the way.

Deep divisions and challenges to leverage

Competing positions on Israel and Palestine undermine the EU’s resolve on Gaza’s rebuilding.

The EU has put its weight behind Cairo’s $53 billion post-war reconstruction plan for Gaza, which rejects all forms of violence and extremism, and makes clear that the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza is off the table. But the EU’s own history of refusing to hold gross Israeli abuses to account contradicts its promise to value international humanitarian law and protect the lives of Palestinians.

Look no further than the demands of Spain and Ireland to prompt an urgent review of the Israel-EU Association Agreement, the principal document for trade and political relations between the two sides. While Article 2 of that agreement clearly conditions bilateral ties on “respect for human rights,” scores of EU states refused to bring the issue up for discussion last week. 

This effectively gives Israel’s acts of genocide, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity a quick pass.

“EU states, including Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, wish to shield Israel from any meaningful criticism,” explains Michael Lynk, associate professor at the Faculty of Law at Western University, Ontario. 

“This cripples effective policy action from the EU and diminishes some of the political clout that it could use if it was more united.”

Even if some unity prevailed, the EU faces considerable limits to its leverage. For over three decades, the United States has ensured an outsized role in shaping Israel’s controversial peace process with Palestine, and its clout now extends to reconstruction support in Gaza. 

Washington’s redoubled support for a widely condemned Gaza “takeover” could add to the EU’s complications, as Brussels seeks to avoid permanent displacement of Palestinians. 

Moreover, the EU’s push to implement the Egypt-led reconstruction plan presents a challenge of its own: it could ultimately demand US support for effective implementation.

What weakens the EU’s leverage further is its dismal track record on stabilising Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Past sanctions on Israeli settlers and entities have failed to yield any considerable change in the permanence of the Israeli occupation, a key factor in genuinely protecting the dignity of the Palestinian people. 

In addition, the EU deliberately overlooked early evidence of Israeli war crimes provided by its own special representative for human rights, sidestepping advice to suspend political ties or deny arms export licences. 

With these attitudes apparent during Israel’s 15-month genocide, how can Palestinians trust the EU to change course in its aftermath?

Despite all these shortcomings, the EU’s path to course correction could’ve come from within. Spain and Ireland’s activism on Palestine removes all doubt. “As progenitors of a more balanced and serious European policy, and setting an example of how it can be successfully applied without much cost, Spain and Ireland’s activism on Palestine sets a moral precedent that invites emulation by others,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, tells TRT World.

Complicity in Israeli war crimes

The EU’s willingness to risk serious complicity in Israeli war crimes also undermines its credibility on Palestine.

Look no further than Israel’s illegal settlement expansion. The EU has refused to sever trade and business links with the settlements, despite an increase in state-backed settler attacks and home demolitions of Palestinians. 

Given that severing ties is key to ensuring the EU’s own compliance with the International Court of Justice’s 2024 ruling, the EU risks complicity in settlement-linked crimes against Palestinians – the very population it hopes to protect.  

It is also a fact that the EU simply hasn’t done enough on the issue of the occupied West Bank to date. Consider forced displacement: Brussels stood back and watched as Israel forcibly displaced 40,000 Palestinians in recent weeks, offering nothing more than rhetorical condemnation for an act it considers a “war crime” and a violation of international law. 

The EU’s lack of pressure appears to afford a carte blanche to Israel to persist with the largest forced displacement of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank in decades, and has fanned fears of a broader annexation of illegal West Bank settlements under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

How is all this reducing risks of violence or bringing Palestinian territories closer to relative calm?

Instead, the EU’s passive approach to the occupied West Bank has empowered Israel’s far-right government to bring a new annexation bill to the fore. 

“Israel's long-term goals are to expel as many Palestinians as possible and eliminate Palestinian claims to sovereignty once and for all,” Muhannad Ayash, professor of sociology at Canada’s Mount Royal University tells TRT World.  

“These goals run against what the EU publicly states are its goals.”

The EU’s own actions undermine its approach to Gaza and the future of the occupied West Bank. The bloc is beset by divisions on Israel and Palestine, wields limited leverage, and cannot preach long-term peace when some of its own member states have aided Israel’s genocide.