After just a month in the office, it was abundantly clear that the Trump administration was seeking expansion in North America, hemispheric defence across the Americas and spheres-of-influence domination in critical world regions. 

Funded by America’s ultra-rich financiers, Trump's cabinet was transactional, yet constrained by interventionist neoconservative ideologues.

At the time, I predicted that “miscalculations could re-inflame Gaza and spark regional escalation via Iran.” 

That’s where we are now.

Trump’s Iran strikes do mark a turning point in US foreign policy under his leadership. 

Far from fulfilling his ‘America First’ peace agenda, the administration has now purposely reignited tensions in the region, in its misguided effort at escalating dominance. 

It is a regime change effort, and Trump has indicated as much. 

The deception campaigns    

Not so long ago, Trump reiterated that Iran will never have nuclear weapons. 

Yet, according to US intelligence, Iran was up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon. 

So, while Israel built its case for war, the US didn’t buy it. The problem is that Trump did. 

Hence, his public rebuke of Tulsi Gabbard, his director of national intelligence. In the process, a misguided concept of Israel’s national security morphed into an even more twisted view of US national security.

Not so long ago, the Iran-US negotiations still proceeded promisingly. Yet, expectations were revised overnight on June 12, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) claimed Iran wasn’t complying with its nuclear obligations. 

That triggered a slate of efforts – but mainly diplomatic measures – to restore the UN sanctions on Tehran later this year. Whether intended or not, the phrasing of IAEA chief Rafael Grossi was now seized by regime-change aficionados as an excuse for massive military intervention.

Through the process, US diplomacy, including Special Envoy Witkoff’s talks and Trump’s personal reassurances, served as a bilateral ploy, basically to cover for the Israeli surprise attack. 

And so it was that on a Friday the 13th in June, Israel began a major military assault against Iran.

A second deception campaign ensued last Thursday, when Trump said that he would decide on potential US action in the growing Israel-Iran conflict “within two weeks”. 

Once again, diplomatic efforts served as a ruse for Israel’s military attack in which the US would intervene when necessary. 

Building on disinformation, these deception campaigns have reaped extraordinary short-term benefits, but mainly military and tactical gains. 

By the same token, they are likely to undermine the US’s international credibility for years to come.

Militarised objectives

There’s a pattern here. In 2012, Karl W. Eikenberry, ex-US ambassador in Kabul and commanding general of Afghanistan, warned of “the erosion of appropriate levels of executive, congressional, and media oversight of the American armed forces.” 

The conclusion of the 35-year army veteran? In the past 50 years, US foreign policy has become “excessively reliant on military power”.

In my book, The Fall of Israel (2025), I show that these trends have only worsened in the past decade. 

With 800 military bases in almost 90 countries, plus hundreds of such bases within the US, America has the biggest collection of military bases occupying foreign lands in history. 

The military presence abroad seems to correlate with US forces engaging in military conflicts, which lead to more bases, which foster more conflicts.

Stunningly, supported by this global web, the US has been in war, engaged in combat, or has otherwise employed its forces in foreign countries in all but 11 years of its existence. 

Today, the powerful State Department serves effectively as a cover for the Pentagon, ridden by revolving doors with the mighty big defence contractors – the only ones benefiting from these misguided wars.

As former US defence secretary Robert Gates once put it, the US military has more musicians in its marching bands than the State Department has diplomats. 

The quip is still valid. By the early 2020s, the total number of foreign service members from all foreign service agencies was about 15,600. 

By contrast, the US Department of Defense has over 1.3 million active-duty service members. Adding the reserve military, the figure increases to 2.1 million; and employees of the US Homeland Security and intelligence community, another 360,000.

Unsurprisingly, these lethal developments in Iran occur against the backdrop of the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s genocidal atrocities in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the occupied West Bank.

In the past, military action was the last resort of American diplomacy. Now diplomacy is just a thinly-veiled cover for US military force.

Fragment Iran, restore Shah-like rule, exploit energy reserves  

The ongoing offensive against Iran is a joint US-Israeli effort. 

Israel’s task has been to “soften” the military targets and initiate regime change operations by “taking down” Iran’s critical infrastructure, nuclear facilities, military and political elites and scientific leaders. 

The US has fostered these goals by deceptive diplomacy, intelligence, arms transfers and financing.

The ultimate objective is the obliteration of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” in the region. 

Hence, the Biden and Trump administrations’ tacit acceptance of Israel’s obliteration of Gaza, the destruction of Hezbollah’s footholds in southern Lebanon, the efforts to rule-and-divide in Iraq, and the bombing of the Houthis in Yemen.

To neoconservative hawks, Iran is the ultimate prize – but as a fragmented and balkanised country. 

It is Iraq 2003 deja vu all over again, as a misrepresentation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) is portrayed as a raison d’etre for a misguided military action against a sovereign state.

The effort to disintegrate Iran seeks to undermine all opposition, while paving way to pro-US forces, including the exiled but well-funded Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), which was long on the US terrorist list but is today the neocons’ darling, as well as Reza Pahlavi, the self-proclaimed crown prince touting the overthrow of the regime in Iran to restore the pre-1979 status quo ante. 

In due time, these are likely to be replaced by US proconsuls and compadre rulers, in the name of “freedom and democracy”.

In the White House, regime change in Iran has huge regional economic and geopolitical importance. 

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. Iran is also OPEC's fourth-largest crude oil producer and the world's third-largest dry natural gas producer. 

Most importantly, it holds some of the world's largest deposits of confirmed oil and natural gas reserves. It is these lucrative resources that have paced the West's external interventions in the country for a century.

As President Trump has posted on social media, “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to Make Iran Great Again, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

In the past, military action was the last resort of American diplomacy. Now diplomacy is just a thinly-veiled cover for US military force.

The gloves are now off.

In the short term, the Trump administration’s double-game can bring great tactical military benefits. 

In the long run, it is undermining US international credibility. The fantasy of America as a “neutral broker” is now in ashes.