A top Turkish intelligence body has warned that the recent Israel-Iran standoff continues to pose a serious risk of regional escalation, underscoring the urgent need for sustained “diplomatic initiatives” with Tehran over its nuclear programme.
A detailed report by the National Intelligence Academy (MIA) – titled ‘The 12-Day War and Lessons for Türkiye’ – also said that cyber warfare and digital manipulation of public opinion are now at the heart of modern conflicts—a dramatic shift from traditional, conventional battles to complex, multi-dimensional warfare.
“Cyber, electronic, and cognitive warfare, which have become leading factors in shaping the battlefield of the 21st century, are no longer independent domains, but are now intertwined and indispensable elements of integrated operational planning,” the 58-page report adds.
The 12-day military confrontation between the arch enemies saw Israel and Iran trade missile barrages that hit key cities and military installations in the two countries. The war also dragged in the US when it bombed Tehran’s nuclear facilities before brokering an uneasy truce between the warring nations.
Iran’s hypersonic deterrence
The report notes that Iran aimed to counter Israel’s air superiority with years of investment in ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Despite its technological edge, Israel failed to intercept several of these Iranian missiles.
“Some of these [missiles] caused significant damage and loss of life in various parts of Israel, particularly in Tel Aviv and Haifa,” the report says, revealing a setback in Israel’s deterrence capacity.
Iranian missiles struck several Israeli air bases, Ben Gurion Airport, power plants in Tel Aviv, oil refineries and the port area in Haifa, as well as key communication and transportation hubs across central Israel.
The report underscores Israel’s targeted assassinations of Iran’s top military and intelligence leaders, as well as key nuclear scientists, revealing the depth of its human intelligence and covert networks inside Iran.
During the conflict, Iran lost several senior commanders—including Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami—and top nuclear scientists.
This operational reach, the report argues, “demonstrated how modern intelligence structures can shape the outcome of war.”
The report points to Iran’s attempt to block WhatsApp as evidence that cyber and electronic warfare were used extensively—not only against military targets, but also to manipulate public opinion through propaganda.
“The regulation of civilian technologies with potential military applications—and the development and widespread adoption of domestic alternatives wherever possible—are essential. In particular, domestic software and hardware must become mandatory for critical state institutions and personnel,” the report states.
Regional stability at stake?
The report observes that, despite pressure from both Israel and the Iranian diaspora to spark a popular movement and effect regime change, the Iranian public has largely prioritised stability and the preservation of state order.
Nevertheless, it cautions that Iran’s internal cohesion will depend heavily on the trajectory of the ongoing conflict. Should diplomatic efforts collapse, regional upheaval appears inevitable—and a new, potentially even more intense, war may follow.
The report urges Türkiye to accelerate the integration of manned and unmanned air systems, invest in domestic missile defence and cyber capabilities, and enhance protection of critical infrastructure and defence industry intelligence.
It also highlights the need for long-term planning, public resilience, and local solutions as future conflicts may involve advanced drone swarms and AI-driven warfare.
The conflict between Israel and Iran erupted on June 13, when Israel launched air strikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and civilian sites, killing at least 935 people. The Iranian Health Ministry said 5,332 people were injured.
Tehran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes, killing at least 29 people and wounding more than 3,400, according to figures released by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
The conflict ended when a ceasefire that took effect on June 24.
