Kazim AlamFrom brokering ceasefires between Israel and Hamas to facilitating US-Taliban talks, Doha has long been a reliable mediator in global conflicts.
But Israel’s unprovoked air strike earlier this week on the political offices of Hamas in the Qatari capital that killed six people may force Doha to rethink its open-door policy towards mediation, experts warn.
“Mediation and diplomacy are core components of Qatar’s foreign policy,” Sinem Cengiz, a researcher at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, tells TRT World.
“(But) this attack has shown that the regional issues are too heavy for a single actor to handle. A collective action is needed to boost Qatar or any other mediator’s efforts,” she says.
Calling the mediator’s role a part of the “Qatari identity”, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani vowed to continue his peace-making efforts even in the face of Israel-backed “state terrorism”.
Cengiz says Israeli aggression will not erode Doha's core commitment to diplomacy, even though naked Israeli aggression has left Qatar “vulnerable to attacks” from both Israel and Iran in less than a year.
Adham Saouli, head of the Critical Security Studies programme at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, tells TRT World that the Israeli assault may prove to be a potential turning point for Qatar.
“This is certainly a change in discourse. Accusing Tel Aviv of state terrorism reflects an escalatory approach Doha might be taking against Israel,” he says, adding that Doha’s switch to aggressive language might be to pave the way for legal action against Israel.
Qatar's mediation role in armed conflicts from Asia to Africa has relied on its ability to engage all parties without fear of reprisal. Doha maintains that it is hosting Hamas negotiators in an “official and transparent manner” with international support.
The Israeli attack in a densely populated urban neighbourhood Doha will “certainly lead Qatar to reassess its mediation efforts” and broader regional approach, Saouli says.
Historically, mediators like Norway in the Oslo Accords or Egypt in various Arab-Israeli negotiations have faced pressures.
But few of them ever had to endure direct territorial violations at the hands of Israel, the way Qatar did.
Doha has been playing a mediatory role with US blessing, Saouli adds.
A watershed moment for Gulf
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East analyst at the RANE Network, tells TRT World that attacks on the soil of a mediating partner is “certainly not something that’s happened in the modern era”.
Bohl says the strike signals Israel’s disinterest in genuine diplomacy. “I think this is largely a sign that the Israelis are not terribly interested in the diplomatic track more than anything else,” he says.
In response, Qatar may pivot towards strengthening regional alliances, especially with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to create a “greater sense of solidarity”, Bohl says.
The Israeli attack on Qatar has already galvanised Gulf unity. The UAE president visited Doha shortly after the attack, a gesture that Cengiz describes as “more than just solidarity”.
She argues that the attack, coupled with Israel’s broader destabilising policies in the Middle East, is further strengthening unity among the Gulf states.
This can herald a new era of Arab unity against Israeli aggression, with Gulf states likely to “deepen their cooperation with one another”, while diversifying their security partnerships, particularly with actors like Türkiye.
Cengiz calls the Israeli attack a watershed moment for the Gulf region, one that is expected to result in “critical revisions to existing security arrangements”.
US President Trump has assured Qatar that such strikes “won't happen again” even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to issue veiled threats.
The UN Security Council also condemned the strikes on Doha, albeit without naming Israel in the statement agreed to by all 15 members, including the US.
But Bohl remains sceptical about American resolve, saying that Trump has yet to demonstrate a willingness to use his economic and military leverage over Israel to force a policy change.
Cengiz echoes this view. The US inaction has challenged its longstanding commitment to protecting its Gulf allies through its military presence in the region, she says.
“The sovereignty of US allies now appears to be compromised in favour of ensuring Israel’s war strategy," she says.
Israel is now emerging for many Gulf states as “the primary regional threat”, supplanting Iran, she adds.
“This underscores a reality: US security guarantees, military bases, and even strong diplomatic ties offer no real protection when Israeli interests override alliances,” she says.
“This attack has dealt a serious blow to Qatari confidence in the US.”
According to Bohl, Doha might emulate Kuwait's low-profile approach in world affairs going forward. Doha’s relationship with the US still has significant security upsides, which means it can’t entirely abandon the partnership, he says.
“But it can downgrade it, or alter it, so that Doha is no longer seen as the primary target for retaliation by anti-American forces like Iran,” he says.
