A fresh diplomatic spat has erupted between the United States and Russia after President Donald Trump rebuked his counterpart Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war, drawing a sharp retort by a top official in the Kremlin.

The public exchange, sparked by Trump’s criticism of Putin’s military campaign and reluctance to engage in ceasefire talks, has fueled fears of a broader confrontation, and also sparked a social media frenzy over the possibility of a nuclear confrontation. 

Trump took to his Truth Social platform earlier this week, warning that Putin is “playing with fire.” The president claimed that without his past efforts, “lots of really bad things would have already happened in Russia,” adding emphatically in all caps, “and I mean really bad”.

His comments appeared to be in response to Russia’s recent refusal to commit to a 30-day ceasefire proposal put forward by Ukraine and supported by Western nations. 

The war of words soon escalated as Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and now deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council, fired back that the only “really bad thing” that could happen is World War III.  

 “I hope Trump understands this,” Medvedev wrote on X, punctuating the sentence with an exclamation mark. 

But political analyst Klaus Jurgens feels that the public exchange is nothing more than “verbal warmongering” by the two sides.  

“It’s an exaggeration and completely over the top," Jurgens tells TRT World.

According to Trump, the Kremlin’s military aggression contradicts earlier diplomatic signals from Putin, who had reportedly discussed working toward a peace framework during a two-hour call with Trump just last week. 

The spat came after Russia launched one of the deadliest aerial attacks of the nearly four-year war, casting doubt on any prospects for peace.

Jurgens says that the threat of WWIII remains largely rhetorical, as Russia has no genuine intention of invading EU or NATO territory.

"Russia has always been worried about NATO’s eastward expansion. Whether that expansion was the right move is debatable. Many would disagree with me, but if one bloc keeps moving closer to your borders, it’s natural to reinforce your defences.”

“Still, Russia would never attack a NATO country – that would trigger Article 5, and yes, that would be World War III. But neither Moscow nor Washington wants that. Even the rhetoric will eventually de-escalate," Jurgens says.

US pushes back

The reference to a potential third world war prompted backlash in the US, where former national security adviser Keith Kellogg slammed Medvedev’s comments as “reckless” and inappropriate for a senior figure in a global power. 

“Stoking fears of WWIII is an unfortunate, reckless comment… and unfitting of a world power,” he wrote.

Medvedev is accused of inflammatory rhetoric since Russia launched its war against Ukraine in 2022. 

In a national address earlier this year, Putin had also raised the stakes, suggesting that Western involvement in Ukraine could trigger the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. 

The Russian president said that Western countries that were helping Ukraine strike Russian territory or might consider sending their own troops “must, in the end, understand” that “all this truly threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilisation.”

“We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory…Do they not understand this?”

Jurgens believes both the US and Russia appear to be bracing for two possible outcomes in Ukraine,  – either a swift end to the war or a prolonged conflict – but neither of them has any real intention of going to war with one another.

"Yes, Europe is rearming, but the public doesn’t want war. Russia is not going to invade Berlin, Brussels, or Bilbao. What we need is compromise, and unfortunately, that means Ukraine will have to make concessions.”

“There must be a middle ground. And for that, Türkiye is uniquely positioned to mediate. The Istanbul talks may not have succeeded, but they laid the groundwork," Jurgens explains.

Russia is making significant gains

The intensifying rhetoric between Trump and Medvedev also comes amid renewed Russian advances on the battlefield. 

Ukrainian officials confirmed that four villages –Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka, and Zhuravka– in the northeastern Sumy region had fallen to Russian forces. 

While most residents had already been evacuated, the symbolism of the territorial gains was clear. 

Russia’s Defence Ministry also claimed control over the nearby village of Bilovody, indicating a broader offensive in the region, which lies less than 30 kilometres from the Russian border.

Ukrainian border guards have reported that Russian units are attacking in small formations, often using motorcycles and drone support, to expand their control along the front. 

The Sumy region had previously served as a strategic launchpad for Ukrainian forces to push into Russia’s Kursk region, a gain that has since been reversed.

In a separate post on Sunday, Trump had also described Putin as having “gone absolutely crazy,” criticising the Kremlin’s aerial bombardments following what he viewed as a promising peace discussion. 

“I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him,” he wrote.

The verbal spat between Trump and Russian leadership comes at a critical time, as both sides accuse each other of sabotaging peace efforts. 

"The only real solution is a negotiated settlement. This war cannot continue indefinitely. Even Zelenskyy will have to realise at some point that the current path leads nowhere,” says Jurgens.