Nuclear meet, unclear outcome: Why Iran-E3 meet did not make much headway?
Nuclear meet, unclear outcome: Why Iran-E3 meet did not make much headway?Tehran and three European nations – the UK, France and Germany – met for a second round of talks to find a common ground. Not much emerged from the negotiations.
If the West-Iran disagreement on the Tehran's nuclear programme is not resolved soon, it could lead to another Iran-Israel escalation, experts say. / AA
18 hours ago

Nuclear talks with Iran are unlikely to make much headway without US involvement, and more coercive action by the West on the heavily-sanctioned country is a real possibility, experts have said after crucial negotiations between Tehran and three major European powers on Friday.

The day-long negotiations in Istanbul between Iran and Germany, France and Britain – collectively called the E3 – came weeks after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities amid a military escalation with Israel. 

While Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi described the Istanbul talks as "serious, frank, and detailed" and added that "consultations on this matter will continue", experts are not optimistic that Tehran-E3 negotiations can go anywhere without US commitment.

Iran and the E3 had held similar talks in Istanbul in May without much success.

Iran’s nuclear programme is tied to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a landmark agreement between Tehran and five permanent UN Security Council members alongside Germany and the EU. 

The deal brought sanction relief to Iran, which agreed to limit uranium enrichment under the oversight of the UN atomic watchdog. The US pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018 during the first Trump presidency. 

Mohammed Eslami, an Iranian academic and professor of international relations at the University of Minho, feels that “the logic of (Friday’s) negotiations (is) to keep the environment positive”, but predicts a tough road ahead for Tehran as well as another possible escalation with Israel. 

He says that “the seriousness of the talks was limited to the E3 suggestion to extend the timeline of the snapback mechanism”, a controversial JCPOA clause designed to reinstate Western sanctions on Iran if one of the signatories feels that Tehran is not complying with the nuclear deal.

If the snapback mechanism is not activated by any party by October 2025 - ten years after the original deal in 2015 -  Western sanctions on Iran will end once and for all, according to Resolution 2231

A looming conflict? 

Eslami sees a treacherous ground for Iran after the Istanbul meeting, forecasting more military operations against Iran in the near future. 

“E3 will definitely activate the snapback mechanism before they run out of time,” he tells TRT World. E3 also wanted to negotiate Iran’s missile capability, which was again rejected by Tehran, he adds. 

If E3 triggers the snapback mechanism, it would signal “a hardening stance”, according to Daria Daniels Skodnik, a political scientist and former deputy commandant at the NATO Defence College in Rome.

Before the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had warned against triggering the snapback mechanism as it has “no moral legitimacy and legal standing”, and called on the E3 to set aside what he called “worn-out policies” of threat and coercion. 

Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June, incidentally, started a day after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi claimed in a report that Tehran was not fully complying with its nuclear obligations. 

Tehran saw a clear connection between the Israeli attacks and the IAEA report, questioning the agency’s integrity. 

The experts feel that if the E3 indicates a tough stance by activating the snapback mechanism, it might invite another round of Israeli attack on Iran, along with possible US involvement. 

“I believe that the conflict has never truly paused—it has continued in the form of cyberattacks, sabotage, and covert operations. The snapback would likely serve as a pretext for renewed military action or retaliatory moves by all sides,” Eslami says. 

“The history of West’s engagement in the region shows that they achieve what they want, either via negotiation and with a lower cost, or through military force with a higher cost.”

Israel and the West have sought to lower the capability of Iran via weakening of its proxies from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq and Yemen, dismantling the country’s nuclear facilities and destroying its missile arsenals, says Esmail.

Right now, the most crucial part of Israeli designs aligned with the West is on Iranian missiles. “The last piece of this puzzle (is yet) to be completed,” he says, adding that Tel Aviv might try to dismantle the remaining nuclear facilities of Iran. 

Iranian reaction 

In response to possible E3 action on the snapback process, Iran would likely escalate its nuclear programme, possibly enriching uranium beyond current levels and limiting international oversight even further, according to Eslami. 

If Western sanctions against Iran fully return, that also means Tehran’s international isolation will further grow. 

“If the snapback mechanism, which is something that Russia and China cannot veto, is activated and implemented, the arms embargo, ballistic missile restrictions, and financial sanctions against Iran will be reinstated,” says Muzaffer Senel, a visiting scholar of the Department of Politics at Binghamton University.

Theo Nencini, an expert on Iran's foreign policy, is also not optimistic about the future of the nuclear talks “without the US commitment, which is highly unlikely,” without any real direction in the current negotiations. 

Until a concrete prospect on lifting of sanctions on Iran backed by the Trump administration emerges, “the Iranians will hardly budge from their position,” he says. 

“The Europeans want a seat at the diplomatic table but have very little to offer the Iranians,” Nencini tells TRT World. 

Iran has been demanding the lifting of Western sanctions as per the JCPOA, while the E3 and the US want Tehran to stop further uranium enrichment. 

“At the moment, given the recent war with Israel, I don't see the Iranians making any particular concessions, even if they are strategically weakened,” says Nencini. 

While a nominal diplomatic path still exists to address Iran’s nuclear programme, “it remains difficult to see how Tehran could be expected to reverse course under the current geopolitical constellation,” Dr Daniels tells TRT World, referring to multiple pressures on the Iranian state from different directions. 

“As Iran’s enrichment levels are reportedly near weapons-grade—enough for multiple warheads—and despite potential setbacks from recent US strikes, Western demands to reduce enrichment to zero make any Iranian reversal highly unlikely,” she adds. 

SOURCE:TRT World
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