Sudan's Nyala hosted a ceremony on August 31 that marked what could be an inflection point for the conflict-ravaged nation, triggered by potentially its most damaging political fracture since South Sudan's secession.

Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that has waged war against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan since April 2023, took the oath of office that day as head of a parallel government.

Militia leader Abdelaziz Adam al-Hilu, sworn in as Daglo's deputy, and a 13-member presidential council complete the hierarchy, according to a statement by the new Sudanese Founding Alliance.

The timing of the ceremony appeared deliberate and carefully designed to counter events on the rival side. Days earlier, the internationally recognised Transitional Sovereignty Council, headed by al-Burhan, had held its first cabinet meeting in Khartoum since the civil war erupted.

Now, with two opposing governments claiming legitimacy, experts see the polarisation of Africa's third-largest nation becoming a formality after years in the making. The creation of a parallel administration, which the military-run Sovereignty Council has dubbed a "phantom government", also highlights the effects of a deadlocked war in which neither side is close to victory.

The African Union and United Nations have both rejected the parallel governing authority in Sudan, flagging it as a threat to the country's unity and territorial integrity.

Cleaved by conflict

The RSF and its allies have strengthened their grip on western Sudan since ceding much of the northern, central and eastern regions, including Khartoum, to the armed forces earlier this year.

Daglo's units now control all but one of five state capitals in the Darfur region, paved with gold reserves in an arc stretching across Sudan's borders with Libya, Chad and the Central African Republic.

"This shouldn't be underestimated, for what happened a few days ago is a turning point in Sudanese history," says analyst Elbashir Idris, drawing uncomfortable parallels with the 2011 referendum that split Sudan in two.

Sudan's foreign minister Omar Mohamed Ahmed Siddig dismisses the rebel administration as unsustainable, arguing that the paramilitaries are "sowing the seeds of their own demise".

He points to the erosion of local support following heavy civilian casualties and mass displacement that has led aid agencies to declare this the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

"There is no danger to the unity of the country, although this may affect and delay a solution to the problem," says Siddig, questioning whether the rebels possess the administrative faculties required for a functioning government.

"I don't think there is any rational government that can provide any sort of recognition to this so-called parallel government in Nyala."

Fighting for primacy

The warring factions have adopted identical symbols, both using the Sudanese secretary bird in their emblems by claiming to be the rightful successors of the government.

As Idris notes, this has become as much a fratricidal fight as it is a war of attrition. "Essentially, they are now fighting for tiny bits of land because of the stalemate," he tells TRT Afrika.

The military deadlock is most visible in Al Fasher, which has endured more than a year under paramilitary siege.

Satellite imagery from Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab reveals how the RSF has constructed earth barriers spanning over 31km, encircling the city and trapping its population.

The dynamics of the battlefield suggest neither side is remotely close to endgame, while their increasingly hardline positions make the possibility of meaningful negotiations harder than ever before.

The Sudanese army argues that negotiating with Daglo's RSF would confer legitimacy on him, a red line that effectively blocks diplomatic solutions.

Catastrophe deepens

As new flashpoints emerge, the human cost of the conflict continues to mount.  

The war has killed tens of thousands and displaced more than 14 million, according to UN figures. The International Criminal Court has launched investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

In Al Fasher alone, some 300,000 civilians remain trapped, cut off from food, water, medicines and humanitarian aid. Last weekend brought fresh tragedy when a landslide in Darfur buried an entire village, killing many people.

The territory in western Sudan has stayed out of the civil war, but hosts hundreds of thousands fleeing the violence.

The African Union's plea for stakeholders to "silence the guns and unite in facilitating the swift and effective delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance" appears to ring hollow against the reality of entrenched warfare.

Aid agencies face an impossible dilemma. Parts of Sudan remain completely inaccessible due to relentless fighting. In areas under rebel control, humanitarian organisations are required to navigate the complexities of working with an administration the UN has rejected.

"It's now a test of sovereignty and humanity... Due to the dynamics of the conflict, it has become difficult to bring in aid. You first need permission from the local authorities," explains Idris. "We must prioritise the dignity of human life."

Worrying prognosis

Sudan stands at a crossroads that feels depressingly familiar.

Analysts warn that the establishment of parallel governments represents more than political theatre. If anything, it risks cementing a division that the battlefield stalemate has already created.

While international rejection would deny the rebel administration diplomatic legitimacy, what Sudan needs more are solutions on the ground.

The question is no longer whether Sudan can avoid fragmentation, but if anything remains that can pull these pieces back together.

The article was first published by TRT Afrika.