Murat SofuogluIsrael is advancing across the Middle East, launching successive attacks on its adversaries — Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and, finally, Iran, the leading force of the so-called Axis of Resistance, an anti-Zionist alliance.
On June 13, Israel launched major strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile bases, and top officials. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared success, and said that “the strikes would continue until Israel is satisfied that the threat of Iran is gone.” Iran vowed a “powerful response”, and regional leaders braced for escalation.
While some held out hope that the Trump administration might pressure Israel to halt its campaign in Gaza and ease tensions with Iran through nuclear negotiations in Washington, the latest Israeli strike on Iranian soil signals that Netanyahu’s government has a free hand, regardless of which administration is in power in the US.
The Israeli attacks killed two of Iran’s top commanders, Major General Hossein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Major General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, along with six leading nuclear scientists. Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was also killed.
Israel also struck key targets, including the Natanz enrichment facility, suspected weaponisation research sites, and ballistic missile launch areas.
As of writing this report, Israel has launched new strikes on Tabriz Airport in northwestern Iran, suggesting that escalation is likely to continue. Netanyahu has said that Israeli operations against Iran will persist “as many days as it takes.” Some Israeli officials suggest that it could take as many as 14 days.
But with Iran now largely isolated from weakened allies, can it do anything in return against the US-backed Israeli state?
Iran: “Walking a strategic tightrope”
“Iran’s rapid drone retaliation and the gradual closure of regional airspace signal rising tensions, though a broader regional war remains unlikely,” says Dr Daria Daniels Skodnik, a political scientist and former Deputy Commandant at the NATO Defence College in Rome.
“It’s too early to say whether Iran’s response marks the limit of its retaliation or is simply the opening move in a longer campaign. The launch of over 100 drones toward Israel signals resolve but remains calibrated, asserting deterrence without triggering full-scale war. For now, Iran is walking a strategic tightrope — retaliating, but on its own terms,” she tells TRT World.
Although Dr Daniels acknowledges that Iran’s options are limited due to shifting regional dynamics from Syria to Lebanon and Gaza she warns that Tehran should not be underestimated by its adversaries. “Some regional states may quietly support Israel’s efforts to contain Iran, but they are equally wary of open war and will push for de-escalation,” she adds.
“Notably, key Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, have been working to stabilise the region by engaging both Tehran and Tel Aviv. Israel’s large-scale strikes risk upending that fragile diplomatic effort, forcing these actors to reassess their balancing strategies.”
Prior to the attack, Iranian and US delegations were scheduled to meet in Oman for nuclear talks on Sunday, but it’s now unclear whether the talks will proceed.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, who just ordered the withdrawal of nonessential military and diplomatic personnel from the Middle East in anticipation of Israeli action, backed Netanyahu’s campaign, blaming Tehran for the failure to reach a nuclear deal.
“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, adding, “The United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world, BY FAR, and Israel has a lot of it with much more to come. And they know how to use it.”
TRT World contacted a former senior Iranian official for insight on the country’s potential response, but he declined to comment.
Can Iran hit back hard?
Sami Al-Arian, a Palestinian academic and director of the Centre for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Istanbul Zaim University, believes “Iran has the capacity to strike Israel with force using ballistic missiles and advanced drones.”
“There are no restrictions now. It’s open warfare with no ceilings,” Al-Arian tells TRT World.
Dr Daniels shares a similar perspective, describing the confrontation as “a conflict without a clearly defined off-ramp.” She emphasises that the next 48 to 72 hours will be crucial in determining whether the “confrontation evolves into a prolonged campaign or reshapes the region’s strategic landscape.”
Israel appears to have set a high objective for its attacks which is “to decapitate the regime”, according to Theo Nencini, an expert on Iranian foreign policy. He points to the high-profile deaths of key Iranian military leaders, including the top advisor of the Supreme Leader, Shamkhani, who was killed in his home, according to Iranian media sources.
“Iran’s response will depend heavily on the scale of Israeli attacks, which are still ongoing,” Nencini tells TRT World.
Despite Israel’s extensive strikes, initial assessments indicate that Iran’s core nuclear capabilities, buried deep underground, may have survived. Dr Daniels says Iran’s immediate retaliation via drones reflects a measured approach.
“It’s conventional, not yet escalatory. But if Israeli operations continue, or if key nuclear assets are perceived to be irreversibly destroyed, Iran may feel it has little left to lose,” she says.
She also cautions that global politics may be entering “a dangerous phase of strategic brinkmanship between Israel and Iran, with the risk of miscalculation growing by the hour.”
Joost Hiltermann, a special adviser on MENA at the International Crisis Group, agrees that Iran must respond forcefully to avoid appearing weak at home. “If it fails to show muscle, it may lose the confidence of the Iranian public,” he says.
Still, Hiltermann stresses that regardless of Iran’s eventual response, the Israeli air campaign has already inflicted major damage on Iran’s military leadership, air defence systems, and possibly its nuclear infrastructure.
Fatima Karimkhan, a Tehran-based journalist whose neighbourhood was targeted in the overnight attacks. “Difficult time to live in. I am safe but they hit some places near my home. Mostly worry about tonight,” she says.
What else can Iran do?
Iran has several potential options against Israel: increasing uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels, utilising regional proxies against Tel Aviv, withdrawing from nuclear talks with the US, or even blocking the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt global oil flows.
“In no circumstances will Iran negotiate the right to enrichment. That’s non-negotiable,” Karimkhan tells TRT World. “Withdrawal from the NPT, higher enrichment, and ending negotiations with the US are now openly discussed,” she says, referring to the 1968 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which Iran is a signatory.
Dr Daniels sees that Iran will likely choose “to keep nuclear weapons outside the scope of this confrontation, preserving a key strategic threshold it has long been careful not to cross.”
A first nuclear test is another theoretical option, but it would be “extremely risky,” according to Nencini. “That may, in fact, be Israel’s objective: to corner the Islamic Republic of Iran and provoke it to make a mistake. This is something that is being studied in depth right now in Iran.”
Tehran could also turn to “asymmetrical retaliation”, using its Axis of Resistance proxies or launching cyberattacks But he draws attention to the poor state of pro-Iranian militias under constant pressure of Israeli attacks, which have already significantly diminished their effectiveness against Tel Aviv.
Another move could be blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil route, in order to create financial panic and pressure Israel and its allies. However, Nencini sees this as unlikely.
“Blocking Hormuz would amount to seriously thwarting the vital interests of the Arab countries of the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, which currently maintains cordial ties with Tehran,” he says.
Additionally, such a move would “greatly upset” China, a key Iranian ally that imports around 1.5 million barrels of oil per day from Iran through Hormuz. He adds: “So, for the time being, I think blocking the Strait of Hormuz is off the table.”
