Zeynep ConkarAfter years of hostilities, Armenia has finally come to terms with the need to accept Azerbaijan’s latest proposals for a peace agreement.
Although the deal itself was a “compromise” for Armenia, as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan puts it; there are still two prerequisites Yerevan must fulfil before Azerbaijan agrees to sign it.
Hours after the announcement of a peace deal, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry announced that Armenia must amend its constitution to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and the “obsolete and dysfunctional” OSCE Minsk Group must be dismantled.
“The next step is to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan from Armenia’s Constitution. At the same time, the Minsk Group and its remnants must be abolished,” Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated.
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is now fighting for his political life after admitting defeat in the war with Azerbaijan.
Why does Azerbaijan want the Armenian Constitution changed?
Azerbaijan has long underlined that Armenia must amend its constitution to eliminate indirect references to Karabakh’s so-called “independence” before a lasting peace treaty can be finalised.
Last month, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated that normalising relations with Armenia would be impossible unless Yerevan made these constitutional changes.
The issue centres on a contentious preamble that references Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence, which itself is rooted in the 1989 Joint Statement on the “Reunification of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh.”
Azerbaijan views this language as a plain violation of its territorial integrity and demands a constitutional amendment. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already admitted that the wording makes territorial claims against Azerbaijan and needs to be changed.
However, the preamble cannot be amended directly, meaning the only way to remove the reference is by adopting a completely new constitution, according to Zaur Shiriyev, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, a think tank based in the US.
“Armenia must draft a new constitution, organise a national referendum, and ensure sufficient voter turnout for validation, which is a delicate balancing act for Armenia,” Shiriyev tells TRT World.
“For Armenia to move forward with a new constitution, its leadership must convince the public that this step is part of a broader peace effort, potentially tied to the signing of a peace agreement.”
Reciprocating Azerbaijan’s demand, Armenia last month called for a national referendum to change its constitution.
However, Yerevan has failed many times up to date to counter the separatist elements within the country that continue to make claims on Karabakh.
Similarly, it had also dismissed the issue as an “internal matter,” despite its direct implications for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
Baku views this as an outright refusal to address the core issue that fueled the decades-long conflict and as a failure to recognise its national security concerns.
All roads lead to Karabakh
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia date back to 1991, when Armenian forces occupied Karabakh –an area internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory– along with seven adjacent regions. The occupation displaced nearly a million Azerbaijanis, forcing them into refugee status.
The tensions escalated in 2020 when Armenian forces attacked Azerbaijani civilians. In the ensuing war, over the course of 44 days, Azerbaijan liberated multiple cities, as well as 300 illegal settlements and villages.
Hostilities ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire, widely seen as an Armenian defeat, yet the Armenian separatists remained in Karabakh under Russian peacekeeper protection.
Consequently, in 2023, with Türkiye’s support, Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour anti-terrorist operation, reclaiming full control and forcing Armenian forces to surrender.
By the time the self-declared separatist government backed by Armenia agreed to dissolve, Azerbaijani authorities had already taken full control of the region.
For decades, countering Armenian terrorism has been a key priority for Türkiye, particularly in response to attacks by the so-called Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) and other terror groups.
During the 1970s and onwards, Armenian terror campaign killed at least 31 Turkish diplomats and their family members, as well as 43 people from Turkish and other nationalities, and wounded many, in attacks spanning multiple countries, including the US, France, and Austria.
As a response, Türkiye ramped up its efforts to fight Armenian terror groups and gradually dismantled them through successful intelligence operations.
Why Minsk Group must end
Azerbaijan also stipulates the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group as a condition for a peace agreement, because the group has consistently shown bias and ineffectiveness in resolving the Karabakh conflict.
Established in 1992 with the goal of mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Minsk Group – co-chaired by the United States, Russia, and France – struggled to deliver any tangible results for nearly 30 years.
Despite four UN Security Council resolutions (822, 853, 874, 884) in the 1990s demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Azerbaijani territory, the Minsk Group did not exert meaningful pressure on Armenia to comply.
Rather than enforcing international law, the group promoted a settlement that, in effect, legitimised Armenian control over Karabakh and the surrounding Azerbaijani districts.
Until the 2020 war, the group failed to make meaningful progress toward peace, according to Shiriyev.
“After 2020, the Minsk Group lost both its purpose and significance, rendering it incapable of playing any meaningful role in the post-war peace process,” Shiriyev says.
“Azerbaijan’s demand for its abolition comes from the fact that the two sides have already resolved the conflict, mutually acknowledged each other’s territorial integrity, and are now on the verge of finalising a peace agreement – with the treaty text already completed,” he explains.
Following Karabakh’s liberation, the Minsk Group co-chairs struggled to stay relevant but continued taking positions that disregarded Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and delayed the restoration of full Azerbaijani sovereignty.
France and the US kept advocating for diplomatic initiatives Azerbaijan viewed as stalling Karabakh’s full reintegration.
The Biden administration was also slow to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh and maintained diplomatic ties with Armenian separatist groups.
In November 2020, the French Senate went a step further by passing a resolution urging the government to recognise the so-called “Republic of Artsakh,” the self-declared separatist administration in Karabakh.
According to Shiriyev, Baku wants to settle the issue before the peace agreement is signed, whereas Yerevan wants to handle it afterwards.
“Keeping the Minsk Group in place, at least on paper, serves no practical purpose and is detached from the realities of the peace process. Just as the conflict is coming to an end, so too should this institution, along with its affiliated mediation structures,” says Shiriyev.
Azerbaijan maintains that lasting peace should be pursued through direct talks with Armenia, without the involvement of a biased group.
Doublegame
In the same week that both Azerbaijan and Armenia separately declared the conclusion of peace talks and the readiness of an agreement, Yerevan once again demonstrated that it cannot be trusted by Baku – unless it backs its words with actions.
For three consecutive days, Armenian forces opened fire “intermittently” at Azerbaijani military positions, according to a statement from Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry.
The latest incidents occurred on Monday night and early Tuesday, with Armenian troops firing from positions in the Keshishkend, Garakilseh, and Chenbarak regions, as well as the Basarkechar district. These regions, located near the border and in proximity to Karabakh, have been significant due to their strategic location. Tuesday’s attacks followed similar reports from the previous days.
Although Armenia’s Defence Ministry denied the reports, “the level of trust in Armenia is close to zero,” as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev earlier said.
“We do not trust any of their words… we need documents; we need papers. We need their constitution to be free of territorial claims against Azerbaijan.”
The international group is meant to be neutral, but it has been co-chaired by the US, Russia and France — the countries with large Armenian diasporas.
