A summit of BRICS nations will convene in Brazil’s capital, Rio de Janeiro, on July 5-6, with members aiming to weigh in on global crises while cautiously avoiding direct clashes with US President Donald Trump’s policies, according to analysts.
The city, under heightened security, will host leaders and diplomats from 11 emerging economies, including China, India, Russia, and South Africa, which represent nearly half of the world's population and 40 percent of its GDP.
Who is not attending?
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will preside over the summit in the notable absence of several high-profile leaders.
China’s President Xi Jinping will miss the gathering for the first time, sending Premier Li Qiang in his place.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who is facing a pending International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant, will not travel to Brazil but is set to participate via video link, according to the Kremlin.
Coming off a 12-day clash with Israel and tensions with the US, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian will also be absent, according to a Brazilian government source.
What’s on the agenda?
Middle East tensions, especially Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, are expected to cast a shadow over the summit as well as the grim anticipation of tariffs threatened by Trump due next week.
Nevertheless, BRICS members did not issue a strong statement on the Iran-Israel conflict and subsequent US military strikes due to their "diverging" interests, according to Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Analysts say unity will be difficult to achieve.
"This doesn't seem to be the right time to provoke further friction" between the world's two leading economies, the researcher said.
Brazil, nevertheless, hopes that countries can take a common stand at the summit, including on the most sensitive issues.
"BRICS (countries), throughout their history, have managed to speak with one voice on major international issues, and there's no reason why that shouldn't be the case this time on the subject of the Middle East," Brazil's Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira told AFP.
The climate crisis is another key issue for Brazil, which will host the COP30 UN climate summit in 2030.
The bloc will also discuss artificial intelligence and reforms in global governance.
"The escalation of the Middle East conflict reinforces the urgency of the debate on the need to reform global governance and strengthen multilateralism," said the Brazilian Foreign Minister.
What topics will likely be skipped?
Some topics, however, are likely to be sidestepped. Notably, plans to find an alternative to the US dollar in trade among BRICS members are likely dead in the water.
"We're anticipating a summit with a cautious tone: it will be difficult to mention the United States by name in the final declaration," Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Centre at Rio's Pontifical Catholic University, told AFP.
China, for example, "is trying to adopt a restrained position on the Middle East", Fernandez said, pointing out that Beijing was also in tricky tariff negotiations with Washington.
For Fernandez, even raising the dollar-alternative idea is now almost “forbidden,” after Trump threatened 100 percent tariffs on nations undermining the dollar’s international dominance.
Since 2023, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Iran, and Indonesia have joined the BRICS, formed in 2009 as a counterbalance to leading Western economies.
But, as Fernandez points out, this expansion "makes it all the more difficult to build a strong consensus."
