Plans are underway to establish a new regional organisation, with discussions between Islamabad, Beijing, and neighbouring countries progressing significantly.

This initiative is driven by a shared belief among these nations that a new platform is essential for promoting regional integration. Pakistan and China have already taken the lead in consultations with key partners, signalling a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape of South Asia.

While Beijing has yet to publicly endorse this new bloc, diplomatic discussions indicate that China views the proposed organisation as compatible with its broader regional economic vision.

Initial reports suggest that this new alliance aims to replace the now-defunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) with a more focused entity centred on investment and regional connectivity.

This new bloc is expected to address pressing cross-border challenges, including climate change and natural disasters, which have become increasingly urgent in recent years.

The idea gained traction during a high-level meeting between Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh held in Kunming, China, on June 19.

This meeting marked a pivotal step toward forming a new regional bloc that could effectively replace the stalled SAARC framework. Notably, Bangladesh, which had previously supported India's boycott of SAARC, appears more open to collaboration under its new government.

Several countries that were part of SAARC, including Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Afghanistan, are anticipated to join this new mechanism.

Reports indicate that India may also receive an invitation to participate, although its willingness to join remains uncertain due to ongoing tensions with Pakistan.

Unconfirmed reports from Indian media suggest that the new organisation could be named the South Asian Cooperation Alliance (SACA), with the inaugural meeting potentially scheduled for August in Islamabad.

SAARC’s decline and missed opportunities

Established in 1985 and headquartered in Kathmandu, Nepal, SAARC was envisioned as a platform to foster economic, cultural, and political cooperation among South Asian nations.

Its founding members included India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and the Maldives, with Afghanistan joining in 2007.

Despite initiatives like the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and institutions such as the South Asian University and the SAARC Development Fund, SAARC's impact remained limited. Intra-regional trade accounted for only five percent of total trade, a stark contrast to the European Union's 65 percent and ASEAN's 26 percent.

The significance of SAARC lay in its potential to unite nearly two billion people in the region, providing a forum for smaller states to voice concerns and seek collaborative solutions.

However, with its last summit held nearly a decade ago, SAARC is now on the verge of closure as the new China-Pakistan-led mechanism takes shape.

The undoing of SAARC

The decline of SAARC can be traced back to the 19th annual meeting in 2016, which was to be hosted by Islamabad. However, New Delhi boycotted the meeting following escalating tensions over the Uri attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.

This boycott, supported by the Indian-influenced government of Hasina Wajid in Bangladesh, effectively derailed the organization. SAARC became hostage to a single-country policy, preventing collective progress on shared issues like trade, climate adaptation, and human development.

The intensifying India-Pakistan rivalry, particularly over Kashmir, terrorism, and water-sharing disputes, has created repeated diplomatic deadlocks.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power in 2014, India has adopted a Hindutva ideology that further marginalises Pakistan, rendering SAARC obsolete.

Instead of reviving SAARC, India shifted its focus to forums like BIMSTEC, which excludes Pakistan but has struggled to gain traction due to economic and political asymmetries among its members.

In April of this year, India dealt a final blow to SAARC by withdrawing SAARC visas for Pakistani businessmen.

This tendency to politicise any platform shared with Pakistan undermines the potential of regional forums. Even in the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, India was the only member country that did not sign the joint communiqué, highlighting its unwillingness to engage in collaborative efforts.

Once dubbed the “European Union of South Asia”, SAARC was similar in spirit but lacked the strong institutional mechanisms or shared political vision that characterise the EU.

While the EU emerged from a post-war consensus driven by economic reconstruction and reconciliation, SAARC was established amid deep-rooted historical rivalries and territorial disputes, particularly between India and Pakistan.

These bilateral tensions routinely spilled over into SAARC's multilateral processes, stalling progress on key initiatives.

Unlike the EU's strong supra-national structures, SAARC was always inter-governmental, dependent on consensus, and lacking enforcement mechanisms. This made it especially vulnerable to political shifts and bilateral breakdowns, with India's size and economic weight preventing the creation of a unified regional agenda.

China could counterbalance India

As a major power in the region, China could potentially scale down India's influence, allowing old strategic rivalries to recede into the background.

Before SAARC was sidelined, Pakistan had floated the idea of adding new members such as China, Iran, and the Central Asian Republics. Pakistan even proposed China as the ninth SAARC member at the 19th Summit in Islamabad, which was ultimately cancelled due to India's boycott.

According to the World Bank, South Asia has been “one of the least integrated regions” in the world, underscoring the need for a platform that can hold together diverse countries.

If China, Pakistan, and other members can agree on a workable trade-based framework, the new organisation might solidify regional alignment.

For India, this invitation represents a critical inflection point: it must choose to re-engage and shape South Asia's future or risk watching a new regional order emerge without its participation.