As Russian drones continue to strike Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kiev, the US President Donald Trump finds himself increasingly on edge.

At home, he is facing renewed scrutiny over his alleged ties to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, while on the international front, he faces foreign policy setbacks from Gaza to Iran and now Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine is proving particularly intractable for Trump. Despite repeated claims that his personal rapport with Putin would swiftly bring the conflict to an end, no tangible progress has materialised.

The sluggish progress of the negotiations has visibly frustrated Trump, who, last week, gave the Kremlin a 50-day ultimatum to agree to “stop the war” with Kiev, aligning himself more closely with the Biden administration’s stance on Russia.

Trump has warned that if Russia and Ukraine fail to reach a deal within the stipulated time, the US will impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia, meaning any country that continues trading with Moscow will face steep duties on goods exported to the American market.

“They are very biting. They are very significant. And they are going to be very bad for the countries involved,” said Trump, singling out major Russian partners such as China, Brazil and India.

He also confirmed that Ukraine would receive support in terms of “top-of-the-line” weapons worth “billions of dollars which would be “quickly distributed to the battlefield.”

Moscow appears unmoved. “Fifty days, it used to be 24 hours; it used to be 100 days. We’ve seen it all,” scoffed Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who has been in Russia's diplomacy for over two decades.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev was equally dismissive on social media, calling Trump’s ultimatum “theatrical” and noting that “Russia didn’t care” as others mocked the US president on his 50-day ultimatum. 

The threat of secondary sanctions did not affect Russian markets adversely as they  climbed nearly 3%, and the Ruble strengthened. Oil markets, too, were calm. 

Can “pressure-first” negotiation lead to peace?

While Trump’s deadline is in keeping with his classic negotiating style to set a timeline in order to create shifts in protracted conflicts, Eugene Chausovsky finds “unlikely that such a deadline will lead to an immediate peace agreement or ceasefire” between the two sides. 

“The direct negotiations between the US and Russia have so far not produced any concrete results, so this can be seen as a pressure tactic on the part of Trump vis-a-vis Russia, along with increased US military support to Ukraine,” says Chausovsky, a defence expert and senior director for analytical development at the New Lines Institute.

However, Trump’s ultimatum might make some impact on the Russian leadership “to be more cooperative in a limited fashion” with Washington to keep peace negotiations alive, leading Moscow to take measures like reducing its airstrikes against cities throughout Ukraine, according to the analyst. 

Others are more sceptical.

Yehor Brailian, an international relations scholar and associate professor at the Kiev Aviation Institute, sees Trump's deadline to Putin as a result of “a wrong logic and understanding of the core” of the current conflict.

He tells TRT World that it is “an existential war for Ukraine because Russia wants to destroy the Ukrainian nation, identity and statehood.” 

“Fifty days means 50 more days of destruction. I don't think that Russia will take this deadline seriously because of the weak US policy, a feature of both Biden and Trump administrations, in terms of sanctions and real deterrence of Russian hybrid warfare against NATO,” he adds.  

According to Brailian, only harsh sanctions combined with increasing Western military support and an anti-Russia deterrence strategy can stop Putin.

Yet Brailian doubts such a strategy will emerge under Trump, who, like Biden, sees China as the primary US strategic rival.

Trump’s deadline ends on September 3, a symbolic date for Beijing as China will commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia.

Beijing has interestingly invited Trump to attend its military parade marking victory over Japan under the banner: “Commemoration of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.”  

“We should look very carefully at what unfolds on September 3 during the military parade because Xi Jinping is interested in weakening Russia and dividing the West. Trump's decisions will be influenced by China as well,” Brailian adds.

What if Russia doesn’t budge?

If Russia is not interested in making a deal with Ukraine, “it can be expected that the US would increase economic restrictions on Russia and back Ukraine further in order to get Moscow to take negotiations more seriously,” Chausovsky tells TRT World. 

According to a recent Financial Times report, during a July 4 call, Trump discussed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the possibility of launching attacks deep inside Russia, including the country’s capital Moscow. 

“Volodymyr, can you hit Moscow? . . . Can you hit St Petersburg too?” he asked, according to the officials briefed on the call. “Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons,” replied Zelenskyy to Trump, referring to long-range rockets which can reach deep inside Russia. 

According to the officials, the two leaders engaged in a discussion on hitting Russia a day after Trump had a “bad” call with Putin on reaching a ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump’s call with Zelenskyy aimed to make Russians “feel the pain” of not agreeing on a ceasefire, forcing them to come to the negotiating table, according to officials aware of the call. 

Last week, Trump announced that he would send more weapons to Ukraine. He also suggested that Europeans can buy Patriot air defence systems from the US to send to Ukraine. 

But by Tuesday, Trump attempted to soften his stance.

“I was merely asking a question,” he said of the Moscow strike remarks, “not encouraging further killing.” The White House told the BBC that Trump was not advocating attacks on Russian cities.

The same day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded by saying that sending more Western weapons to Ukraine meant "as encouragement to continue the war." 

On Sunday, Peskov reiterated Russia’s core demands, which include Ukraine’s withdrawal from Russian-held territories and formally renouncing NATO ambitions. 

“The main thing for us is to achieve our goals,” he said.