“I’ve found it! I’ve found it! A mountain of gold!” shouts Big Jim McKay in Charlie Chaplin’s 1925 classic The Gold Rush, while holding a gold nugget scarcely larger than his hands. The small bar hints at a great fortune, yet the real question in viewers’ minds is this: can a handful of metal truly bring the security and glory of a mountain?

The US now finds itself in a similar scenario – celebrating a rare earth sourcing deal with Ukraine that, on paper, looks promising. But like Big Jim’s nugget, it may prove more symbolic than substantial. The reserves are real, yet dated, uncertain, and risky to access, especially in an active warzone.

A month ago, the US made its first real move in the rare earth race, beyond a surreal flirtation with buying Greenland, by signing a sourcing agreement with Ukraine. But calling it a breakthrough would be generous.

Here's why: Ukraine’s estimated 5 million tons, three times greater than current US reserves, still pale in comparison to China’s dominance. These figures also rely on outdated Soviet-era surveys, with many sites likely too costly to mine profitably. The agreement gives the US priority access to future mining and energy deals in Ukraine, but not control, nor immediate impact. 

On the other hand, the deal isn’t just about REEs. It spans over 55 natural resources, including oil and gas. As the saying goes: if you climb into bed with a bear, don’t expect to get out unscathed. Speaking of bears, Russia still controls much of Ukraine’s resource-rich regions. Drilling through trenches is as risky for investors as panning for gold in a minefield.

Before the US can hope for a second Mountain Pass – the California mine that remains its only domestic source of rare earths – it may need something closer to a second Marshall Plan, where geology and geopolitics collide. 

China has already set sail

China, meanwhile, has been making quiet but strategic moves across the same chessboard.

By 2029, nearly 40 percent of Africa’s projected rare earth supply will already be tied to Chinese companies. Beijing-backed firms hold major stakes in key sites like Tanzania’s Ngualla, Malawi’s Songwe Hill, and Uganda’s Makuutu—shipping the raw materials to China for processing. 

But Africa isn’t the only focus. China is also building rare earth “backups” in Central Asia. In April 2025, Kazakhstan announced a 20-million-ton discovery in its Karaganda region, making it the world’s third-largest holder on paper. Just weeks earlier, China’s East Hope Group struck a $12 billion deal to build a massive processing complex there.

Next door, Kyrgyzstan awarded mining rights for its Kutessay deposit to a Chinese firm. In exchange for much-needed technology and investment, China adds another key stop to its growing Central Asia supply chain.

Greenland: The Arctic chessboard

Another critical square on the global rare earth chessboard—Greenland—has Beijing, Washington, and Brussels on edge.

Three major REE projects in there straddle the line between resource diplomacy and environmental sovereignty.

Beijing has made attempts to “get in” via stakes, partnerships, and acquisition offers. But local laws, EU and US pressure, and especially a 2021 law banning uranium co-mining have blocked those efforts. While Washington leverages private sector investment and EXIM Bank financing under a China-free supply chain, Brussels is working through Denmark to bring Greenland into the EU raw materials network.

According to USGS data, Greenland’s proven reserves stand at 1.5 million tons of REO, and only a single deposit could provide 15 percent of global supply—if legal hurdles are cleared.

President Trump, who once declared the US would “somehow acquire” Greenland for national security, seemed to agree.

In short, Greenland hasn’t yet struck its “Big Jim moment.” But the Arctic wind could still reshape the global rare earth game. For now, China waits, holding minor shares under a “watch and see” strategy; Washington increases pressure; and Brussels builds infrastructure.  

Türkiye: The rising power in the rare earth race

While Washington clings to uncertain reserves in conflict zones and Beijing cements supply chains from Africa to Central Asia, a quiet revolution is underway in Türkiye—one that may redefine the global rare earth element (REE) order. 

A recent National Intelligence Academy (NIA) report confirms that Türkiye’s Eskişehir/Beylikova region holds, 694 million-tons of REEs – second only to China’s formidable Mongolian Bayan Obo mine. This isn’t speculative—it’s proven capacity.

Türkiye has already launched a 10,000-ton pilot production facility, and its target of scaling up to 570,000 tons of annual refining capacity places it firmly on the path to becoming Europe’s undisputed REE anchor and one of the world’s few non-Chinese major players.

In a global REE market expected to more than double from $325 billion in 2024 to $770 billion by 2040, Türkiye is no longer just a resource-rich country—it is becoming a critical gateway between East and West.

Today’s trillion-dollar REE-enabled industries—spanning EVs, turbines, advanced electronics, and defence systems—can no longer afford single-source dependency. Türkiye offers what others cannot: its EU Customs Union status,  proximity to major ports, and access to growing regional demand, making it the natural hub for a China-free REE corridor.

The strategic importance of this cannot be overstated. China has repeatedly used REEs as a geopolitical lever—as in the 2010 export freeze on Japan, or the recent April 2025 ban on several REEs to the US. Türkiye’s ascent offers a rare and timely alternative: a trustworthy ally with deep industrial potential and logistical reach into both European and Asian markets.

These elements are essential components in the production of many critical technologies, from smartphones and wind turbines to electric vehicles and defense systems. 

Türkiye's vision is clear: to create a domestic ecosystem that turns raw material into a booster of strategic autonomy. A 10-year roadmap is already in place to transition from “reserve holder” to “value-added exporter and tech enabler.”

In short, Türkiye isn’t catching up—it’s breaking ahead. With strong reserves, regional clout, and growing international interest, it stands poised to emerge as the next indispensable power in the rare earth race—not as a substitute for China, but as a strategic axis in its own right.