The escalation of conflict between perennial warring neighbours, India and Pakistan, sparked by the killing of Hindu civilians by militants in Indian-administered Kashmir, appears to be spiralling out of control. Unless it is checked, this regional conflict between two nuclear-armed countries may well lead to broader global consequences.

A full-scale war would be apocalyptic for both nations. Yet, from all accounts neither the United States nor China seem to have succeeded in tamping down the rising war hysteria in both countries, fed by a largely captive press and massive disinformation by private actors as well as official proxies. To date, neither of the two major powers has moved beyond calling for de-escalation.

Global powers watch as tensions rise

President Donald J. Trump claims to have good relations with both countries, without showing any inclination to act as a peacemaker. Vice President J.D. Vance has also washed his hands of the conflict. Making matters worse, the United States does not have an ambassador in either country, so no one with political clout is available who could have direct access to the Secretary of State or the White House in any effort to resolve the situation. 

That leaves China, Pakistan’s main supplier of military and economic aid, as the most likely brake on Pakistan’s actions. For the time being, China appears to be calling publicly for disengagement but simultaneously providing Pakistan the edge in aerial and electronic warfare. It might also be using Pakistan as a testing ground for its advanced weapons while sending a signal to its adversary, India.

Once the largest provider of aid to Pakistan (averaging $1.4 billion annually during the Afghanistan war), US assistance has dwindled. As of the financial year 2025, official aid dropped to just $101 million and may now be at zero following the closure of USAID operations.

Covert assistance, if any, may be continuing for counter-terrorism operations and the use of Pakistan as a base for drone operations in the region. The US could also be using Pakistani territory as a listening post for Central Asia and China. 

But Washington’s leverage is now largely indirect, operating through institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank, from whom Pakistan borrows heavily. On May 9, the IMF Executive Board approved a $ 1 billion second loan tranche of the Extended Fund Facility and a new $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), despite Indian objections and without US resistance. 

The US sees India as a key partner in the economic and military coalition to counter China. It also sees India as a large potential market for US goods and services, especially for defence sales. India values this relationship but is not likely to sublimate its national objectives within the region to US direction.

Its principal military supplier remains Russia, although it has expanded acquisitions from France and other Western countries, as well as Israel. None of these countries appears ready to use their influence in persuading India to change its aggressive stance towards Pakistan.

A regional solution, before it’s too late

Türkiye, as a longtime friend of Pakistan, could exercise some influence on the next phase of this conflict, but that remains to be seen.

Pakistan will listen to Türkiye and to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, with whom it has deep economic and military ties. However, India has steadily strengthened its own economic and counterterrorism ties with the Arabian Peninsula.

In the absence of  US or other Western nations’ involvement to stop this needless and escalating warfare between India and Pakistan, perhaps a regional coalition of peacemakers may be the ultimate way out. However, it will need to be accepted by the civil and military leadership in Pakistan and India. Time is running out for this off-ramp to become effective.