President Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy — from imposing tariffs on allies to threatening to scale back Washington’s NATO commitments — has strained relations between Washington and its European allies.

Among all of Trump’s actions, his public clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was perhaps the most jarring for the European political establishment. It seemed to validate French President Emmanuel Macron’s previous calls for a security architecture independent of the US.

Amid growing fears of Russian aggression and Trump’s wavering support for European defence, Macron offered France’s nuclear deterrent as protection for the continent. 

Russian aggression “knows no borders” and poses a direct threat to Europe, questioning whether Moscow would stop at Ukraine, Macron said in a televised address on Wednesday.

“I have decided to open up the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent through our nuclear deterrent,” Macron said in his speech. It signalled France’s willingness to play a more prominent and influential role in global politics.

The French leader, who once described NATO as “brain-dead,” has long advocated for developing a security framework based on “European military and technological sovereignty.”

Poland, with its historical enmity toward Russia, and the Baltic states, former Soviet republics with turbulent past with Moscow, welcomed Macron’s nuclear deterrence proposal.

“There was a long discussion that French nuclear weapons could be deployed to Poland, which neighbours Ukraine,” says Murat Yigit, a professor of strategy and security at the Air War College of National Defence University in Istanbul.

“With a French nuclear deployment to Poland, European leaders have long aimed to deter possible Russian threats,” Yigit tells TRT World. “Now, with Poland welcoming Macron’s nuclear umbrella, this deployment idea might be revitalised,” he adds. But the move could escalate tensions between EU and Russia, which found Macron’s proposal “extremely confrontational.”

Making Europe Great Again

“Macron envisions and advocates for Europe as more than just an economic bloc — he wants it to reclaim its place as a security power,” says Yigit.

“The recent Trump-Zelenskyy clash has provided Macron an opportunity to take the lead by instrumentalising Trump’s attitude towards Zelenskyy to promote the formation of a continental armed forces,” Yigit adds.

Macron’s proposal comes after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made a “historic” appeal for France to extend its nuclear umbrella to Berlin. 

As Western states prepare for a future without America’s military shield, they fear the prospect of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Vladimir Putin that could undermine European security. 

During a recent emergency meeting in Brussels, EU leaders declared that only with European support, a US-Russia negotiated peace to end the Ukraine war can succeed. 

“I want to believe the US will stay by our side,” Macron said in his speech, “but we must be prepared if that isn’t the case.” He added, “The future of Europe should not be determined in Washington or Moscow.”

Macron holds unique advantages over other European leaders.

France, unlike Germany — the continent’s most powerful economy — retains nuclear weapons. And unlike post-Brexit Britain, which claims to have Europe’s strongest military, France remains a leading member of the EU.

With 290 nuclear warheads, France ranks as the fourth-largest nuclear power globally, trailing only Russia, the US, and China — and far outpacing any other European nation, including the UK.

In his televised speech, Macron stressed that “peace cannot be agreed at any cost” between Ukraine and Russia. He said that Moscow has become “a threat to France and Europe,” adding, “It would be madness to remain a spectator in this world of danger.”

Washington says Ukraine’s entry into NATO – established in 1949 against the Soviet Union threat – is “unrealistic”. It has also threatened to withdraw American troops from Europe, asking European allies to step up their defence spending.

Yet not all experts see Russia as an immediate threat to NATO.

“There is no clear evidence that Russia intends to invade NATO countries. Its actions in Ukraine stem from historical, geopolitical, and security concerns rather than a broader plan to attack Europe,” says Erika Simpson, an associate professor of international relations at Western University, Canada, and president of the Canadian Peace Research Association (CPRA).

Simpson also advises that “adopting a balanced approach that considers long-term security interests, economic stability, and the potential for dialogue” with Moscow is a better approach than “framing Russia as an existential threat.”

“Macron’s assumption that Russia is poised to expand beyond Ukraine needs further examination. Europeans should question the necessity of immediate military buildups based on worst-case scenarios,” Simpson tells TRT World.

Washington has since halted military aid as well as intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Yigit believes Trump’s Ukraine policy has fuelled the perception that the US is abandoning its NATO allies which helps Macron rejuvenate his call to form a European military force.

“While Macron aims to have a deterrent effect against Russia, his main objective is unification of Europe under a common security umbrella promoted by France,” Yigit says.

Toward a European army?

The mechanics of a French or Franco-British nuclear deterrent for Europe remain uncertain.

One option is stationing French nuclear-armed planes in countries like Germany or Poland, with the launch decision still resting solely with the French president. Alternatively, French bombers could patrol European borders or quickly deploy to airfields abroad.

While France’s 290 warheads may seem limited against Russia’s arsenal, combined with the UK’s stockpile, they total 550 — and the US nuclear presence in Europe remains a factor. 

Next week, Macron will convene military chiefs from across Europe to discuss potential peacekeeping deployments to Ukraine, should Kiev and Moscow reach a peace deal under Trump-Putin terms.

The meeting could serve as a stepping stone toward a unified European armed force.

On Wednesday, during the emergency European Council summit in Brussels, EU leaders embraced Macron’s call to arms, stating that Europe “must become more sovereign, more responsible for its own defence, and better equipped to act and deal autonomously with immediate and future challenges and threats with a 360° approach.”

Unlike Trump, who downplayed Russian aggression, EU leaders described the conflict as “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine” — an “existential challenge for the European Union.” They pledged billions of euros to bolster defence spending, aiming to ensure continental security and sustained support for Ukraine.

“But not every European state is on the same page with Macron,” says Yigit.

Rising far-right movements across Europe, from France to Germany, advocate better ties with Russia and oppose both further unification and rearmament in the EU, hurting Macron’s continental security arrangement efforts, according to Yigit. 

“Without the American security umbrella”, EU’s security arrangements “will still not work as a deterrent to Russia,” says Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst on Russia at the International Crisis Group.