After more than a decade of devastating conflict, Syria’s shattered economy may finally be turning a corner.
With the lifting of international sanctions and increasing global engagement with the new transitional government, cautious optimism is growing among analysts and observers.
“All stars appear to be aligned for Syria’s economy to be revived, but it will definitely take some time,” Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Syria Project, told Anadolu Agency.
“In the next one to two years, Syria’s economy will be not good, but it will be decent. It will not be a catastrophe, at least.”
Several factors underpin Ozkizilcik’s outlook, including the return of foreign investments, improved governance under a new administration, and the surprising speed at which international sanctions have been lifted.
“I expect that Syria’s reconstruction will cost less than the UN anticipates,” he said, referring to the figure of $400 billion cited based on UN field studies and assessments.”
“The Syrian people are very determined to rebuild their country. There is the will. You have the diaspora, international actors, regional states who want to help Syria, and … sanctions being lifted in a record time, which no one expected so soon.”
Syria’s 13-year civil war left the country economically devastated. Its GDP halved between 2010 and 2020, local agricultural and industrial production collapsed, and dependence on imports surged.
According to estimates from institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), Syria’s GDP stood at $37.1 billion in 2022, $39.5 billion in 2023, and $29. 3 billion in 2024 – a stark difference from the pre-war $60 billion in 2010.
GDP per capita similarly dropped from $2,800 in 2010 to $2,100 in 2022 and 2023.
Trump administration grants Syria sweeping exemptions from sanctions in a big first step toward fulfilling president's pledge to lift half-century of penalties on a country devastated by civil war.
New government, new approach
With the fall of the Assad regime last December and the rise of Ahmed al Sharaa as the president, Syrians are now being encouraged to invest in their country and its rebuilding process.
“The Assad regime was notorious for clientelism, nepotism, and mismanagement,” said Ozkizilcik.
“It appears that the new transitional government is much more capable in governance and managing the economy.”
Unlike the Baathist regime’s economic policies, the transitional government has adopted a liberal market-oriented approach.
“We know that in contrast to the socialist economic approach … an open market policy in terms of economic policies is much more fruitful."
The lifting of Western sanctions by the US, UK, and, most recently, the EU, has further accelerated Syria’s reintegration into the international economic system.
“With the sanctions removed, there are no obstacles that prevent Syria from being reintegrated into the international economic system and banking system,” Ozkizilcik said.
Many foreign countries and companies, he added, are now able to invest in Syria, which will help rebuild the country and also enable them to make a profit out of these investments.
The new proposal would allow funding for Syria’s defence and interior ministries and lift sanctions on the Commercial Bank of Syria, while keeping restrictions on Assad-linked individuals.
