Abhishek G BhayaAs the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies with the US President Donald Trump demanding Tehran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ and issuing stark threats against Iran’s leadership, China has stepped up its diplomatic efforts – condemning Tel Aviv’s military strikes and Washington’s escalating rhetoric, and warning of grave consequences if the violence spirals into a wider regional war.
Chinese experts say a collapse of government in Tehran — an outcome many believe Israel, and even the US, ultimately seeks — would trigger regional chaos, disrupt vital energy supplies, and jeopardise Beijing’s extensive interests in the Middle East.
In a video interview with TRT World, Einar Tangen, senior fellow at the Beijing-based Taihe Institute and founder of Asia Narratives, described the prospect of the Iranian government’s fall as a “nightmare scenario” for Beijing.
“Forty-five percent of China’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” Tangen said. “Regional chaos and disrupted oil flows would have a huge impact on China’s energy lifeline and strategic interests. Beyond that, it would create a massive power vacuum and threaten China’s Belt and Road investments across the region.”
China purchases about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. In March, Iranian oil made up 16 percent of China’s seaborne crude imports, according to Kpler data as reported by Reuters.
Jian Gao, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University, and visiting fellow of China Forum at Center for International Strategy and Security Studies at Tsinghua University echoed this alarm, describing Israel’s initial attack on Iran as “a very obvious invasion of sovereignty.”
“This is absolutely a very serious violation of the United Nations Charter. There is a large possibility this kind of attack could escalate into a large-scale or full-scale war in the very near future — this is not what China wishes to see,” he told TRT World.
China intensifies diplomatic push, condemns Israeli attacks
Tangen’s and Gao’s remarks come as Beijing has repeatedly denounced Israel’s actions in its official remarks. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking to both his Israeli and Iranian counterparts last week, called Israel’s attacks a violation of international law and warned they could plunge the Middle East into deeper turmoil.
“China clearly opposes Israel’s attack on Iran with military force in violation of international law,” Wang told Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. “The urgent task is to immediately take measures to avoid escalation and return to diplomacy.”
In a call with Iran’s foreign minister, Wang went further, condemning Israel for violating Iran’s sovereignty and warning of the dangerous precedent set by targeting nuclear facilities.
Jianlu Bi, a Beijing-based current affairs commentator, told TRT World that China has been consistent in opposing actions that exacerbate the conflict.
“From the outset, Beijing has voiced profound concern over the escalating tensions, opposing any infringement on Iran’s sovereignty and calling for immediate measures to ‘put the brakes on’ the conflict and cool down the tension.”
Beijing has also moved to protect its citizens, evacuating hundreds from both Iran and Israel amid mounting security risks.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun on Wednesday said China has evacuated 791 citizens from Iran “with the support of neighbouring countries” and is relocating over 1,000 more. He noted that Chinese embassies, including those in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, are assisting at border crossings, and some nationals have already been safely evacuated from Israel.
Limited options, but growing alarm
While China has condemned the attacks and called for restraint, Tangen noted that Beijing is unlikely to move beyond diplomatic engagement for now, even if the US decides to join Israel in attacking Iran.
“China will see a US-Israel strike on Iran as reckless escalation — a dangerous violation of the UN Charter,” Tangen said. “But China does not want direct confrontation with the US. It will stick to urging de-escalation, seeking to project itself as a responsible global power.”
Gao highlighted the complexities. “The contradictions between Israel and Iran are in a kind of deadlock. A chaotic situation in the Middle East is not in the interest of the American side either. Maybe it serves Israel’s immediate interests, but the US and Israel don’t have identical interests in the region.”
Both Tangen and Gao warned of red lines, particularly concerning attacks on nuclear sites and civilian infrastructure, with Gao cautioning that bringing a deliberate change in the government of Iran is an unrealistic goal.
“It’s impossible to cultivate a pro-West or pro-America government in Iran. What happened in Afghanistan is not a faraway story. If the US remains addicted to regime change, it risks another serious lesson,” Gao said.
BRI and the broader stakes
The escalating war threatens China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ambitions in the region. Tangen pointed out that while the BRI consists of multiple corridors, conflict in the Middle East could deal a severe setback to China’s westward trade plans.
“This might be playing into Washington’s strategy to disrupt the BRI,” Tangen said, contrasting Beijing’s emphasis on development with what he described as the US spreading “war and arms.”
Bi added that China’s calls for restraint and dialogue stem from both principle and pragmatism. “China’s position reflects its consistent foreign policy principles of non-interference and peaceful resolution, but also a hard-headed assessment of its national interests. Instability in the region directly impacts global energy markets and supply chains vital for China’s economic development.”
A potential mediator?
China has positioned itself as a likely mediator in global conflicts, leveraging its success in brokering the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in March 2023. Wang Yi has offered China’s help in facilitating dialogue between the two sides, stressing that “force cannot bring lasting peace.”
Tangen affirmed Beijing’s outreach efforts to all sides but cautioned that with the US and Israel intent on toppling the Iranian government, meaningful progress toward peace may be elusive.
Bi emphasised that now is the time for “sustained and vigorous multilateral diplomacy.”
“The current trajectory of the conflict is unsustainable. All international actors must exert maximum pressure on both Israel and Iran to de-escalate. Robust behind-the-scenes negotiations and a firm rejection of violence as a political tool are essential,” he stressed.
Gao underlined China’s stance: “China is not going to pick sides but will provide a platform for peace negotiation between different powers. What we’ve seen from China in the past years is exactly this kind of constructive engagement.”
Taiwan speculations dismissed
Responding to speculation that China might use the crisis as cover for action on Taiwan, Tangen dismissed the idea, noting that Beijing’s position remains unchanged.
Tangen said Taiwan is not a pressing focus for China beyond concerns about US efforts to arm it with offensive weapons. He emphasised that Taiwan’s economy is deeply tied to the Chinese mainland, and China has no interest in forced reunification.
“However, any move toward independence or deployment of missiles capable of striking Beijing would cross a very deep red line, prompting a swift Chinese response,” he added, accusing the US of provoking tensions globally while blaming others.
“The United States — or more precisely, President Donald Trump — has no endgame, leaving the rest of the world to act as the adults in the room and wait for this reckless, childish behaviour to run its course.”
