In the middle of the 12-day conflict with Israel, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei allegedly named a few people who could be his successor, shining a rare spotlight on a complicated process that goes into electing the political and spiritual head of the Shia-majority nation.

As the dust settles after the intense military face-off between the two arch-enemies, speculations swirl over the people who could succeed the 86-year-old cleric, who has led the country uninterrupted since the 1989 death of Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s first post-revolutionary supreme leader and the central figure in the 1979 purge. 

Iran formed a complicated political structure synthesising democratic rules with Shia theocratic principles after its landmark 1979 Revolution, which toppled the country’s monarchical system under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. 

The country’s Assembly of Experts, a religious authority comprising top Shia clerics, is one of those institutions created by the revolution, which will decide the identity of the next supreme leader after the incumbent Ali Khamenei. 

Mohammed Eslami, an Iranian academic and a professor of international relations at the University of Minho, however, refuses to read too much into the recent reports, which claim that Khamenei nominated three possible candidates to replace him. 

“The Supreme Leader himself does not interfere in the process of electing the next leader. So, the claim that Khamenei has nominated three individuals as his successors seems invalid to me,” Eslami tells TRT World. 

How is the supreme leader elected? 

“Contrary to common belief,” Eslami says, “the election of the Supreme Leader in Iran follows a ‘semi-democratic’ process.” 

Every four years, citizens across all cities and towns vote to elect members of the Assembly of Experts (Majles-e Khobregan), a body of Islamic jurists who meet specific scholarly and political qualifications.” 

The Assembly of Experts, whose members have an eight-year term, has 88 religious jurists (faqihs in Arabic). While they are elected by popular vote, the official candidacy of these religious jurists should be approved by the Guardian Council, a 12-member top council, which also vets candidates for presidential, parliamentary and local elections alike. 

The Guardian Council, a semi-democratic authority, six of whose members are elected by the supreme leader and the rest by the parliament, can also veto parliamentary legislation and oversee elections, a crucial task. 

“Once elected, the assembly carries several responsibilities, the most significant being the evaluation of the current Supreme Leader’s competency to remain in office and, when necessary, the selection of a new Supreme Leader—either upon the death of the incumbent or a determination that he is no longer fit to serve,” says Eslami. 

While the public does not directly choose the Supreme Leader, the indirect mechanism through elected representatives introduces a layer of democratic participation into an otherwise clerical system, according to Eslami. 

But who are the top candidates for the supreme leadership? 

Many pundits have argued that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader, and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Khomeini, as possible powerful candidates for the top religious post. But Eslami differs from these assessments, saying that the current Iranian leadership does not favour a dynastic rule. 

After the 2024 helicopter crash of then-president Ebrahim Raisi, who was considered a front-runner for the supreme leader post, the Assembly of Experts publicly named Mojtaba Khamenei as one of the candidates. 

“In response, the office of Khamenei objected to this notion, clearly stating that the Leader opposes Mojtaba’s candidacy, emphasising that governance of an Islamic society should not be treated as an inherited position like the throne of a monarchy,” says Eslami. 

“This rare and direct rejection reinforces the principle that succession must follow the institutional process defined by the Assembly of Experts, not personal or familial preference,” he adds. 

A Tehran-based analyst, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, also feels that Khamenei’s son has little chance of making it to the top.

“Mojtaba is one of the potential candidates, but as far as I can see, he doesn't have that much chance, as it is not acceptable to change the Velayet-i Faqih to a monarchy,” she adds. 

The Velayat-i Faqih is a religio-political theory of Khomeini, promoting the idea that Shia clerics should dominate politics. Velayet-i Faqih is the dominating ideology of the current Iranian statecraft. 

Here’s a look at some other people who could succeed Khamenei when the time comes.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

Among others, Eslami points to 63-year-old cleric Mirbagheri as a potential candidate for the next supreme leader. Mirbagheri, a member of the Assembly of Experts who was elected from Iran’s northern Semnan province, now serves as the head of the Qom Academy of Islamic Sciences. 

“He is often referred to by regime supporters as one of the ‘theoreticians of the 1979 Revolution’,” says Eslami, referring to Mirbagheri’s efforts to synthesise revolutionary political ideas with Shia religious thought. 

“While it is difficult to determine who currently has the upper hand, Mirbagheri appears to be a frontrunner due to both ideological alignment and institutional standing,” he says. 

Alireza Arafi

The 67-year-old cleric currently serves as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts. Arafi, who represents Tehran in the Assembly, has also been a member of the powerful Guardian Council. 

Eslami sees Arafi as one of the strong contenders for supreme leadership. 

Arafi, whose father was a close friend of Khomeini, earlier led the Friday prayers in the holy city of Qom, a prestigious position for the Shia religious establishment.  

Hassan Ameli

Ameli, an ethnic Azerbaijani from Ardabil, a northwestern province of Iran, is “a unique profile”, according to Eslami. The 63-year-old Ameli is currently the Friday prayer leader of the Azerbaijani-majority province of Ardabil. 

He is “a vocal figure on regional issues, particularly concerning Azerbaijan and President Ilham Aliyev”, says Eslami. During the past Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict in the Karabakh region, Ameli gave sermons backing Baku against Yerevan saying that the region is a territory of Islam. 

Like Ameli, Khamenei and current President Masoud Pezeshkian also have Turkic ancestry. 

Hassan Rouhani 

There has been an ongoing public campaign in Iran promoting the former two-term President Hassan Rouhani, a reformist, as a potential candidate for the supreme leadership. 

“Rouhani is trying his chances over this matter,” says the Tehran-based analyst, adding that “all of these forecasts might be irrelevant when the time comes.” 

Rouhani was a member of the Assembly of Experts in the past. Despite the pro-Rouhani online chatter, Eslami dismisses the idea that the former president can be elected as the country’s next supreme leader. 

“Such social media campaigns seem fleeting and unrealistic; given his moderate, pro-Western stance, it is highly unlikely he would be seriously considered for a role that demands deep ideological consistency with the regime’s core principles,” he says.