Jubilant soldiers welcoming the Sudanese army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, at Khartoum International Airport early this week may have been an inflection point for the North African nation after nearly two years of attritional fighting.

Although the transitional administration led by al-Burhan has yet to declare a complete victory in the army's battle with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have regained control of the military headquarters, the presidential palace, the state intelligence headquarters, and the central bank.

The international airport was recaptured on March 25 after being held by the RSF since the start of the war.

Experts say the military's gains in Khartoum are strategic and symbolic, albeit unlikely to end the war immediately. After all, the RSF – commandeered by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, alias Hemedti – and its allied militias continue to control vast territories in the western region of Darfur and elsewhere in the south.

"For Sudan's army to defeat the RSF in Khartoum was expected. But to do so in Darfur is a different matter altogether," ElBashir Idris, a Sudanese human rights activist and analyst, tells TRT Afrika.

General al-Burhan and Dagalo had been in partnership since staging a coup d'état in October 2021, but fell out over a plan to transition to civilian rule.

The conflict has since forced more than 12 million people out of their homes, while half the population is battling hunger in what the UN describes as the world's largest humanitarian crisis.

Both sides have been accused of war crimes, with the RSF also being charged with genocide.

Given the dynamics, the prospect of the conflict dragging on despite the SAF regaining Khartoum is the most worrying factor for the millions suffering. 

"Historically, when the capital is captured, it means the end of the war. But in Sudan, it only means the end of one phase and the beginning of a new one…The big question now is whether SAF has the means to take the war to Hemedti in Darfur," Pascal Cuttat, a senior adviser at the Kenya-based think tank Sahan, tells TRT Afrika.

Dangers of partition

In recent months, since the momentum of the war swung in favour of the army, fears have grown about Sudan being splintered into areas controlled by the military and the RSF-run territories. The country is Africa's third largest by area.

Analysts warn that any such partition would be disastrous, as it would only temporarily halt the conflict before the fighting flares up on a larger scale after the two sides have resupplied.

The consensus view is that it won't be in the SAF's favour to have a neighbour with hostile intentions, or one born out of bad blood.

"After nearly two years of war, I don't think that the Sudanese people wish to live as neighbours with the RSF. If there were a partition, it would perhaps stop the fighting now, but it would prolong the war," Idris says.

"Essentially, partitioning the country would be akin to putting the RSF in the same league as the SAF with weaponry that will lead to the war continuing."

Bumpy road to peace

Attempts to mediate between the two sides, including by the African Union, Saudi Arabia, and the US, have failed because neither side is willing to back down.

General Burhan insists that there will be no talks with the RSF until they retreat and lay down their arms.

The RSF, on the other hand, signed a charter with allied militias recently for the formation of a parallel government.

“It would be very difficult for the parties to be at the negotiating table; they don't see the need to be there…(SAF) has definitely become more hardline in its effort to see this through with a military victory rather than a peace effort," says Idris.

Civilian actors have also struggled to offer alternative pathways to a peace process that will end the war and restore civilian rule.

"I don't think anybody is offering anything that provides a viable alternative…The belligerents have made it clear the conflict will be settled militarily," explains Cuttat.

Ceaseless civilian torment

Claims of politicisation of humanitarian aid by both sides have marked the war. According to the UN, approximately 30.4 million people, or over two-thirds of the population, require assistance.

Humanitarian efforts have been severely hampered by the lack of security, complicating the movement of supplies. The gains by the army in Khartoum are not expected to change the lack of access to aid and medical supplies.

"What has happened over the last weeks is highly symbolic. But fighting continues, and people will not see betterment of the situation very soon," says Cuttat.

Analysts also warn of the RSF's pattern of revenge attacks on civilians in territories under their control.

"Overall, what we have seen is a pattern. Whenever the SAF makes territorial gains, the RSF takes out its frustration on civilians within paramilitary-controlled territories," says Idris.

"Aid has been politicised and weaponised in this war, although there is hope that the recent developments in Khartoum will make it easier for humanitarian aid to enter the capital city."

For war-ravaged Sudan, even a sliver of hope is now worth waiting for.