Sadiq S BhatWashington, DC, — It's not the coronation of a prime minister that has Ottawa whispering behind closed doors.
It's the crownless figure who may hold the key to power.
As Canada hurtles toward the April 28 federal election, all eyes are not just on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives or Mark Carney, who is comfortably in the pole position, but on the man whose party may bleed into single digits yet decide the future of the nation.
Jagmeet Singh, 46, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), is down but not yet out.
His movement — idealistic and perhaps wilting — could still surprise in what's shaping up to be one of the tightest elections in Canada in a generation.
A new YouGov projection paints a precarious picture.
The Liberals, flush with Carney's economic gravitas and voter-friendly positioning in Ontario and Quebec, lead with 42 percent support.
The Conservatives, despite a blistering campaign and populist surge, trail at 38. But the headline isn't who's winning. It's who might hold the balance in a hung Parliament.
Because make no mistake — despite bruising numbers, Singh may yet not be irrelevant in Canadian politics.
Polls place the NDP's national support between 8.5 and 10 percent — low enough to threaten official party status, high enough to be the hinge on which power swings.
If the seat projections are correct, Singh's NDP could win only a handful of seats.
However, analysts say that even 6-8 seats can mean everything when you're the only bridge between rival kingdoms.
Trump's tariffs on Canada and vows of making it America's "51st state" have turned "dealing with Trump" into a major election issue, overshadowing economic concerns and increasing support for Liberal Party led by Mark Carney.
Stakes are higher
Backroom operators in Ottawa know this. They've seen it before. The 2022–2024 supply-and-confidence agreement between Singh and Trudeau was born not of strength, but necessity.
Dental care. Pharmacare. Protections for working families. Singh played a quiet but defining role in shaping legislation that touched the lives of millions.
This time, the stakes are higher.
Because Singh didn't pull the trigger when the Liberals were bleeding last fall. His base screamed for it. His party apparatus begged. But the man once mocked for being too idealistic refused to bring down Trudeau's minority government.
And with that, he may have altered the entire trajectory of Canadian politics.
"While we could have won lots of seats, it would have meant a Pierre Poilievre majority Conservative government, and I could not stomach that," Singh said.
"I love my party. I care deeply about it. I want us to win. I want us to up our seats. I know we’re good for people. But in that moment, I made a decision for the interest of the country ahead of my party."
That decision might now come full circle.
Should the Liberals fall short of a majority, they may need Singh again. But this time, the NDP leader's leverage is eroded.
His critics — some within his own caucus — call him a martyr, not a strategist. If he emerges as kingmaker again, which is unlikely but not improbable, it won't be from a place of strength. It will be a last stand.
Singh, a devout, practising Sikh and former Ontario MPP, became the first person of colour to lead a major federal party in Canada when he took over the NDP in 2017. He represents Burnaby South.
Ordinary Canadians tell us what concerns them the most in the election marred by Trump's tariff turmoil and his vows to make Canada America's 51st state.
Meanwhile, in Quebec, Yves-Francois Blanchet, 60, a former minister and ever the poised tactician, stalks the federal stage with the precision of a provincial veteran.
His Bloc Quebecois may grab 18+ seats, a sharp drop from 2021, but it is still a force in the French-speaking province.
A kingmaker on paper. But paper burns quickly in a federal fire.
The Bloc, hemmed in by geography and agenda, can't anchor a national coalition.
Blanchet has already signalled he'd be open to supporting a government "that respects Quebec's identity and jurisdiction."
That usually means leaning on cultural issues, language protection, and autonomy.
Useful in negotiations. Limiting in coalition politics.
Former central banker turned Liberal leader is poised to become Canada's next PM. With soaring odds and a calm persona, he faces test of politics' chaos and tightening race to the finish.
Will Singh survive the storm?
Singh, however, can still steer the ship — if he survives the storm.
Singh speaks of the "ultra-wealthy" needing to pay their share. Of corporations offshoring profits. Of billionaires ballooning their wealth while average families drown in grocery bills and rent.
He's spoken to the crises — the cost of living, climate anxiety, Indigenous rights. But in this brutal election cycle, none of it may matter unless the NDP clings on in key battlegrounds: Vancouver Island, parts of Toronto, Edmonton Griesbach, Windsor-Tecumseh.
Poilievre has capitalised on discontent and framed Singh as Trudeau's enabler. Carney has tried to squeeze Singh from the other side — appealing to left-of-centre voters who want stability, not sloganeering.
Caught in the middle, Singh is trying to tell a different story: that conscience still has a place in today’s politics.
If the numbers hold, and if the Liberal edge falls slightly short of a majority, then Jagmeet Singh — bruised but still standing — may once again find himself in the negotiating room.
In a country gripped by economic unease and political fatigue, Singh's challenge is existential: hold the line just long enough to matter. Force a conversation no one else wants to have.
And perhaps, quietly, shape Canada's future from the margins.
As he told supporters in Burnaby last week, "The only party that can push them to deliver what you need, what your family needs, is the New Democrats."
Come Monday, we'll know if his words hold or his party folds.
