Amir ZiaMany Pakistanis wait with bated breath for the Trump administration to announce its new travel ban list that may or may not include their country among those whose citizens would be barred from coming to the United States.
There is nothing official yet, but a Reuters story, dated March 5, quoted three anonymous sources saying that along with Afghanistan, Pakistan “would” also be recommended for inclusion on the travel ban list. Several other Muslim-majority countries could also be on the list, but their names were not disclosed.
The story came as a rude shock to Pakistan, especially its government, ruling elite, and well-to-do citizens. After all, Pakistan has a history of working closely with the United States, and its English-speaking elite has always been overwhelmingly pro-West.
Going to America for education, work, setting up businesses, buying assets and eventually settling there has remained a dream of many educated, professional and well-heeled Pakistanis as the United States never shut its doors on Pakistan completely. Despite many ups and downs in relations, the security establishments of the two countries usually maintained close contact.
The travel ban story was all the more surprising for Pakistanis as only a day before, President Donald Trump in his first address to the joint Congress session on March 4, thanked Pakistan for the arrest of a Daesh-K terrorist kingpin.
On the CIA’s tip, Pakistani authorities tracked and arrested Mohammed Sharifullah alias Jafar from the southwestern Balochistan province near its Afghan frontier and handed him over to the Americans.
Among many others, Jafar also stands accused of masterminding the deadly terrorist strike at Kabul Airport on August 26, 2021 that killed 13 US soldiers and 170 Afghans.
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Trumpian thanks
The Shehbaz Sharif government was still basking in the glow of “Trumpian thanks” and news channels still playing up the news when the possibility of the inclusion of Pakistan to the travel ban list dawned on them.
But according to two former Pakistani diplomats, there was no need for over-excitement on Trump’s note of thanks. The Reuters story should also be seen with caution, they say.
“I don’t have any credible information about this (travel ban), barring the Reuters story,” Sherry Rehman, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, told this scribe. “I don’t think it is possible. It would be a surprise if this happens… In my view there won’t be any blanket ban on Pakistan.”
Masood Khan, another former senior diplomat who served in the United States as Pakistan’s ambassador, said that after reading the Reuters story, he prayed that this should not happen. “It would be a very negative decision and would have a negative fallout.”
Pakistan holds its relationship with Washington crucial. The United States is not just the country’s biggest export-destination but its support is vital for Islamabad in dealing with multilateral financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Pakistan’s ongoing IMF programme would not have been possible without Washington’s support.
Yet, Pakistan’s relations with the United States have a history of going from one extreme to the other. From once being part of the anti-communist alliances of CENTO and SEATO, and dubbed as the most allied ally to the most sanctioned and bombed one, Pakistan has seen it all.
Pakistan partnered with the United States during the Cold War and resisted the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and then again sided with Washington in the so-called war against terrorism in that land-locked country following the 9/11 terrorist strikes on US soil.
Following the withdrawal of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan apparently lost importance for Washington.
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A test for Pakistan
All through President Joe Biden’s term, relations between the two countries remained mostly cold despite occasional instances of cooperation that included Pakistan’s help during the withdrawal of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan.
However, towards the fag-end of its term, the Biden administration slapped sanctions on three Pakistani companies, including a state-run entity, for assisting in the country’s missile programme.
To Pakistan’s surprise, the Americans declared its long-range missile programme a threat to the United States, although all of Islamabad’s defence preparations are directed towards one adversary: India.
That was the reason that a “thank you” from President Trump meant a lot for the Shehbaz government.
The second reason for the Shehbaz government to enthusiastically welcome Trump’s gesture has more to do with its symbolism for domestic politics.
The Shehbaz government faces bitter opposition from many influential Pakistani Americans who are upset over the jailing of former premier Imran Khan, who remains a popular figure in Pakistani politics.
Pro-Imran Khan Pakistanis, both in the country and abroad, expect Trump to use his good offices for his release and have been actively lobbying for this.
However, Pakistan’s challenge of maintaining smooth relations with the United States is far bigger and graver than to be interpreted by a mere thank you or even if Pakistan’s name does not appear on the US travel ban list.
There are many more serious points of divergence of interests between the two countries than convergence. Pakistani diplomats admit that their country’s bandwidth of relations with Washington has squeezed tremendously following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Apart from old challenges in relations between the two countries, including US concerns regarding Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programmes, its close strategic ties with China, and Islamabad’s festering relations with arch-rival India, which is now a strategic partner of the United States, the Trumpian era could throw surprises at Islamabad.
Under the Trump presidency, the pressure can suddenly mount on Pakistan because of his unconventional and aggressive style of diplomacy on any of the old issues or a new one that the United States deems to address. Currently, Pakistan may be a low priority of the United States, but this can change dramatically if the US president decides to focus on Pakistan in particular or South Asia in general, at any given time.
Therefore, the Trumpian era is likely to test Pakistan’s diplomacy to the hilt.
Pro-India, anti-Pakistan
A new factor that intensifies Pakistan’s US challenge is the fact that the Trump team includes many known pro-India and Indian-origin faces who hold top positions. Some of these team members are openly hawkish on Pakistan and its all-weather ally, China.
For example, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and CIA Director John Ratcliffe – are all anti-China hawks. Pakistan is likely to face more pressure from Washington on the scope of its partnership with China on the diplomatic chessboard.
In the past, while Rubio proposed an anti-Pakistan and pro-India bill in the Senate, Waltz - a military veteran - had pushed for intensifying pressure on Pakistan to curb the alleged cross-border terrorism – a line in sync with the Indian position.
Among the opening shots of Ratcliffe as the new CIA director was to exert pressure on Pakistan which led to the arrest of Sharifullah.
Tulsi Gabbard, director of the National Intelligence that manages the 18 US intelligence organisations, is the first Hindu to serve in Congress and seen as a pro-India hawk. She has no ancestral connection with India, but enjoys close ties with its Hindu nationalists. Gabbard’s Indiana-born mother converted to Hinduism and gave her children Hindu names.
Gabbard had been critical of Pakistan during its military standoff with India in 2019.
Then, there are several other Indian-Americans holding important positions in the Trump team – from Kash Petal as FBI director to Ricky Gill serving as senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council. They also include Kush Desai, deputy press secretary in the White House, and Saurab Sharma in the Presidential Personnel Office, indicating that the 4.5 million-strong Indian diaspora is a strongly represented minority in the new Trump administration.
This strong presence of Indian-Americans in the US power corridors is the newest challenge for Pakistan in its relations with the United States.
How Pakistan, with its diminishing influence and mounting hurdles, will make its voice heard in Washington remains to be seen.
For this, probably the Shehbaz government needs to connect with the Pakistani diaspora in the West and bring political stability at home to fight the country’s case effectively on the world stage.
