Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group in Lebanon that once wielded significant influence from Iraq to the Mediterranean, exists today only as a shadow of its former self.
As a part of the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance, the non-state militia that also operates as a political party in Lebanon has suffered major blows recently in the form of high-profile assassinations, loss of military assets, and limited access to resources.
Here’re five recent developments that seem to have cut Hezbollah down to size in Middle Eastern politics.
The toll of war
Far from being a relatively ragtag group that took on the Israeli military almost two decades ago, Hezbollah emerged as a formidable military force over the years.
But the group took a major hit after it began launching what it called ‘solidarity attacks’ on Israel in the wake of the Israel's brutal offensive on Gaza, a move that drew sharp retaliation. A full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah started in September 2024, followed by a fragile ceasefire signed in November 2024.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel has continued air strikes and ground incursions into southern Lebanon, claiming it is only targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
The war has resulted in over 4,000 deaths and displaced nearly 1.4 million people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Israel also killed Hassan Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for three decades, besides a number of key commanders in non-stop aerial strikes inside Lebanese territories.
In one of the most dramatic spy attacks, Israel detonated thousands of pre-rigged walkie-talkies in September 2024 in Lebanon, killing 32 people, including two children, and injuring thousands others in the name of targeting Hezbollah members.
Calls for disarmament
Crushed by a six-year-long economic crisis, the current Lebanese government is the first in the country’s history to show genuine seriousness about disarming Hezbollah.
Early this month, the US government asked the Lebanese government to fully disarm Hezbollah in exchange for Israel’s withdrawal from southern parts of Lebanon.
The response from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was so positive that it left Thomas Barrack, the envoy of US President Trump, “unbelievably satisfied.”
Backed by Saudi Arabia, the US proposal calls for the full disarmament of Hezbollah “within four months,” thus paving the way for US aid and foreign investment into the crisis-ridden nation of 5.7 million people.
If implemented, the proposal will strip Hezbollah of its military muscle, leaving it to operate as a political party with a sway over Shia-allocated parliamentary seats – 27 in the 128-member legislature.
Iran’s waning support
Iran has long waged a shadow war against Israel through regional actors such as Lebanon‑based Hezbollah and Yemen‑based Houthis.
But Iran’s declining regional clout, particularly after its 12-day conflict with Israel in 2025, has weakened Hezbollah to a large extent.
While Iran’s ties with Hezbollah remain intact, analysts say Tehran’s focus on protecting its national security within its borders has left the Lebanese group “more exposed” to Israeli hostilities.
Analysts say Iran’s relative decline and its lack of direct intervention to protect Hezbollah during the 2024 war is a key reason why Hezbollah is now “more open to disarmament talks”.
Many Hezbollah supporters have also become disillusioned by Iran’s inaction and are pushing the group to redefine itself as a Lebanese nationalist resistance party rather than an Iranian proxy.
Regime change in Syria
Hezbollah’s role as a regional player acting on behalf of Tehran took a major blow when a new government came to power in Syria, Lebanon’s neighbouring country that gives Beirut land access to Iraq and Iran, after opposition groups defeated the Assad's regime in December 2024.
Analysts say the new Syrian government has a “different approach” towards its neighbours than its predecessor, as President Ahmed al Sharaa is unlikely to do Iran’s bidding in the region.
Sharaa and his Lebanese counterpart, Joseph Aoun, agreed in February to coordinate efforts to maintain security along the border following rounds of clashes, a move that cut off Iran’s access to Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration appears to be signalling that it may let Syria reassert a degree of influence over Lebanon where the new government “harbours strong animosity towards Hezbollah”.
Cutting off Hezbollah’s access to funds
Lebanon's central bank recently signed an agreement with a US risk management advisory firm to combat illegal activities and fraud – a move aimed at preventing Hezbollah from using the Lebanese financial system to re-establish itself after recent setbacks.
The agreement is part of Banque du Liban’s broader effort to remove Beirut from the “grey list” of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the international policy-making and standard-setting body dedicated to combating money laundering and terrorist financing.
FATF placed Lebanon on its list of countries requiring special scrutiny last year in a move many worried could discourage the foreign investment it needed to recover from a 2019 financial crisis that is still felt today.
More recently, Lebanon's central bank banned banks and brokerages from dealing with a Hezbollah-affiliated financial institution.
The US Department of the Treasury has already imposed sanctions on Hezbollah-related financial institutions on the pretext that the Iran-backed group uses these banks as a cover to manage "financial activities and gain access to the international financial system”.
A Lebanese official told Reuters news agency the Lebanese central bank’s move reflected US pressure on Beirut to take action against Hezbollah's financial wing.
Meanwhile, the US has promised economic aid to the Lebanese government if it fully disarms Hezbollah.
