Romania, the second most populous state in the Balkans and a key EU and NATO member, is heading toward a critical presidential election this month. With populist candidates rising and traditional pro-Brussels parties under pressure, the outcome could shift both the country’s foreign policy direction and the European Union’s eastern frontier dynamics.

At the centre of this shift is George Simion, a 38-year-old nationalist and leader of the right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). A former civic activist and parliamentarian, Simion is known for his confrontational style, pro-Trump views, and opposition to military aid for Ukraine. He champions a “neutral” foreign policy and has called for restoring Romania’s pre-World War II borders, claims that touch sensitive nerves across Eastern Europe.

Simion currently leads the polls ahead of several mainstream candidates who have traditionally aligned with pro-EU, pro-NATO policies. While often labelled a Eurosceptic, his precise stance on the European Union is more ambiguous, a point of ongoing debate among analysts. 

The upcoming vote follows a chaotic December presidential election, annulled by the Romanian Constitutional Court over alleged Russian meddling. That vote had been won by another right-wing candidate, Calin Georgescu, who has now been barred from standing. Moscow has denied any interference.    

Sunday’s first-round vote is expected to be highly competitive. “It is difficult to predict who will win,” says Ecaterina Matoi, a scholar at the Bucharest-based Middle East Political and Economic Institute (MEPEI). 

If no candidate secures an outright majority, the race will move to a second round between the top two candidates. A “rearrangement of preferences and alliances” may determine the ultimate outcome, Matoi tells TRT World, referring to splits between pro-EU, nationalist, and Russia-leaning camps.    

Across the region, national elections are increasingly shaped by global forces, from the war in Ukraine to the Trump administration’s political agenda, which includes tariffs to support right-wing parties like Germany’s AfD in Europe.

Moldova, Romania’s eastern neighbour, re-elected a pro-Western president in November. But Georgia, a post-Soviet Caucasus state, returned a Russia-leaning government for a fourth term. Romania, a former Warsaw Pact member, now mirrors this ideological divide, with sharp domestic battles between Euro-Atlantic loyalists and nationalist conservative challengers. 

Is Simion really a Eurosceptic?

While Simion is frequently portrayed by Western media as a Eurosceptic, Romanian scholars urge a more nuanced interpretation. “Whether or how much George Simion is a Eurosceptic can be considered subject to debate,” says Matoi.  

She notes that the term ‘Eurosceptic’ often relies on outdated political frameworks. “Terminology confusions and associations with historic political patterns on the public scene,” explains Matoi.  

Far-right parties in Europe like France’s Rassemblement National to Germany’s AfD have long been branded Eurosceptic. Even Italy’s current Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni was portrayed as a Eurosceptic in the past, but now she is considered as a “potential Brussels queenmaker”.

This evolution, from nationalist critic to pragmatic insider, has become increasingly common in European politics. Leaders who campaign on anti-EU rhetoric often adjust their stance once in office. If Simion wins, a similar shift could occur, depending on how he governs and how Brussels chooses to respond.

“It is difficult to predict the EU’s reaction, but in my opinion, the EU will react cautiously,” says Alexandru Niculescu, a Romanian researcher at the Free University of Brussels (ULB), with an interest in Balkan, Turkish, and Middle Eastern affairs. “George Simion’s attitude and policies will influence the EU’s future response.”

Drawing a parallel with Italy, Niculescu tells TRT World: “The EU will react similarly to how it reacted to Meloni’s victory in Italy—she was portrayed as a far-right Eurosceptic before coming to power, but nowadays she is considered right-wing, though not extremist, at least in the eyes of the media and EU policymakers.”

He also points out that like Meloni, Simion, who “has so far been nothing more than a civil activist and a member of the Romanian parliament, will come to understand the reality of consensus and the culture of compromise within the EU Council.” 

This also suggests that the socialisation process within the EU Council, made up of the heads of state or government of the 27 member countries, would likely moderate Simion if he were elected president. “He would have too much to lose and not enough to gain from opposing or damaging relations with the EU,” the researcher explains.

“Simion is a nationalist and a conservative; some say he has links with Russia, but he has never mentioned that Romania should leave the EU nor been an anti-EU hardliner like Diana Sosoaca,” Niculescu notes.  

Like Georgescu, Sosoaca was also banned from running for the presidency by the Constitutional Court, whose reasoning for the cancellation of the December election is “still unclear” because the Supreme Council of National Defence documents submitted to the supreme judicial authority “remain classified”, says Niculescu. 

While Romania has a bicameral parliamentary system, its president has a semi-executive power commanding the country’s armed forces and leading its national security council, which has privileges to determine key issues like military aid. The president also represents Romania at EU and NATO meetings and appoints prime ministers, top judges and intelligence chiefs. 

“Emphasising a binary dynamic between pro-EU and pro-Russian forces obscures the deeper reality of power dynamics in Romania—a country where the secret services still hold significant power, and where it is easier to frame the situation in binary terms than to reveal the complexities of internal political life,” says Niculescu. 

Can Simion actually win? 

Experts are divided. While Simion is polling strongly, he faces tough opposition from well-connected rivals. 

Crin Antonescu, a 65-year old former Senate president and candidate of the ruling three-party minority government, is considered the establishment favourite. With support from provincial party networks, he’s expected to mobilise rural and semi-urban voters, especially against Simion, who will likely be framed as an extremist, according to Niculescu. 

Still surprises remain possible. Nicusor Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucharest, could enter the second round. But his urban appeal may not translate into rural votes, possibly opening a path for Simion if mainstream support splits, explains Niculescu.

Another wildcard is Victor Viorel Ponta, a former prime minister and ex-leader of the Social Democratic Party. “He will likely be supported by the ruling coalition, but he is not well regarded by the population after the Colectiv nightclub fire in 2015,” says Niculescu. 

“It is unlikely for Simion to win outright,” says Niculescu, “but the more fractured the field becomes, the more plausible his path to a second-round upset.”

Even if Simion wins, the real test will be how he navigates these entrenched institutions—and whether Brussels treats him as an outlier or a new player in an ever-widening European spectrum.