A senior Russian general was killed in a car bomb explosion near Moscow just before President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in the Russian capital for a high-stakes meeting with Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential peace deal for Ukraine.

Despite ongoing negotiations between American and Russian diplomats to find a settlement between Moscow and Kiev, the situation on the ground remains grim. Fighting has largely stalled into a war of attrition, with each side making only small territorial gains.  

But tensions suddenly escalated this week. Russian missiles struck Kiev yesterday in one of the deadliest attacks in recent memory killing at least 12 people. In response, Ukrainian drones targeted an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufacturing facility in Russia’s autonomous region of Tatarstan. 

The attacks prompted an urgent plea from US President Donald Trump to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, urging “Vladimir, STOP!” 

“The recent large scale missile attacks on Ukrainian cities by Russia mystifies me. I do not see these as useful in any way to advance victory in Putin's war. In fact, these attacks are clearly counterproductive to the peace process,” Edward Erickson, a former officer in the US army and a leading military analyst, tells TRT World.

Following the missile strikes, a homemade car bomb was detonated today in Balashikha, a city about 30km east of Moscow, killing Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. 

The car bombing occurred a little before Trump’s envoy, Witkoff, arrived in Moscow to present Washington’s seven-point peace plan to Putin. 

The surge in violence highlights the scale of difficulties facing the peace process, even for Trump, who has long touted his dealmaking skills in complex international arenas where personal ambitions, national interests and global politics collide. 

Small advances

So what is the current frontline situation? 

“Ukraine continues to hold a small sector of territory near Kursk for prestige purposes,” Erickson adds, referring to Ukraine’s cross-border attack into Russian territory last year. Since then, Russian forces have reclaimed most of the Kursk region, recently regaining control of the historic Gornal Monastery. 

“The ground war is basically stalemated, with small Ukrainian advances near Toretsk and small Russian advances in the Belgorod and Sumy oblasts. Neither side appears to have the capability, at this time, to conduct large scale offensive operations,” Erickson says. 

Russian forces have also continued “limited offensive operations” in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast but “did not advance”, according to a recent update by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv city, the monitoring group reported. 

Under Trump’s peace proposal, Russia would be required to withdraw from parts of the Kharkiv Oblast, where intense fighting continues at the moment. 

In the east, the battle for Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast remains intense. Much of Donetsk has been under Russian control since 2022, but Chasiv Yar’s strategic position has made it a major flashpoint. 

“The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated on April 23 that Russian forces have a manpower advantage and use armored vehicles to bring infantry as close to the frontlines as possible before dismounting and attacking on foot,” said the ISW report. 

The fierce fighting underscores Ukraine’s ongoing challenge: confronting one of the world’s largest armies, backed by a nuclear arsenal.   

Russian military industry on fire

Despite suffering an estimated 790,000 dead and wounded, according to Western monitoring groups, Russia has been able to recruit 30,000 troops every month, said NATO commander General Christopher Cavoli in a recent testimony to Congress. 

Cavoli also noted that Russia’s frontline forces have swelled to over 600,000 troops, nearly double the number at the outset of the full-scale war in February 2022. 

“Russia is not just reconstituting service members but is also replacing combat vehicles and munitions at an unprecedented pace,” warned the US general. 

Despite losing approximately 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems and over 400 air defense systems in the past year in its fight against Ukraine, Moscow’s military industrial complex works well “to replace them all”, according to Cavoli. 

“Russia has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial production lines for military purposes. As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year,” said the top NATO commander. 

By contrast, the US produces only about 135 tanks annually and currently manufactures no new Bradley Fighting Vehicles, he reported to the Congress. Russian artillery shell production, which hovers around 250,000 per month, is three times more than the US and Europe combined production levels, he added.