In a rejection of President Donald Trump’s latest diplomatic overture, Iran has ruled out direct nuclear negotiations unless Washington abandons its “maximum pressure” policy.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that talks with the US are “impossible” under present circumstances. This comes after Trump sent a letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposing talks on a new nuclear deal—framing the options starkly: “militarily, or you make a deal.”

Khamenei dismissed the offer as “a deception,” warning that dialogue with the Trump administration would only intensify sanctions. Araqchi added that Tehran would formally respond to both the threats and “opportunities” in Trump’s letter soon.

With the US maintaining this hardline approach, Iran sees little incentive to return to the table.

But on Monday, Araqchi indicated that Tehran is willing to start indirect talks.

Russia and China

In this context of entrenched hostilities, attention is shifting to Russia and China—two global powers that could play a decisive role in unlocking the diplomatic deadlock.

At a trilateral meeting in Beijing recently, China, Russia, and Iran jointly condemned the use of threats and sanctions and renewed calls for multinational dialogue. China outlined a five-point proposal to address the Iranian nuclear issue, while Russia offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran.

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasised Beijing’s ongoing commitment to reviving the suspended Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Originally signed by Iran, the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany in 2015, the JCPOA collapsed following Washington’s withdrawal in 2018, a year into US President Trump’s first term. According to the pact, Tehran had committed to limiting uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent, but since then levels have risen to 60 percent, nearing the 90 percent weapons-grade levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is concerned, as this is enough material to make four nuclear bombs.

Growing urgency

Two critical factors drive the urgency to settle Iran’s nuclear issue.

First, escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran risk inflaming broader conflict across the Middle East, particularly in Gaza and Yemen.

Dr. Theodore Karasik of the Jamestown Foundation told TRT World that with the Gaza ceasefire having “evaporated,” regional dynamics are increasingly unstable—further complicating efforts to resolve the Iran issue.

Second, a looming deadline is approaching. Under the JCPOA’s terms, October 18 marks the point at which remaining signatories can trigger a “snapback” of UN sanctions. Although neither the US nor Iran currently adheres to the deal, some mechanisms remain in place—and their expiration could foreclose diplomatic options.

Analyst Roberto Neccia warns that activating the snapback would restore UN sanctions and further isolate Tehran.

He told TRT World that the US administration could ask European countries to activate the mechanism and “this could explain Tehran’s interest in continuing negotiations with the E3, although Iranians are fully aware that on the nuclear issue they will have to engage directly with the Trump administration.”

Russia and China as mediators

Tehran now leans increasingly on its Eastern allies. Both Russia and China maintain strong economic and strategic ties with Iran—and crucially, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, they can block future resolutions targeting Tehran.

China has helped buoy Iran’s economy by purchasing its oil and last year brokered the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russia, meanwhile, has deepened cooperation with Iran in military and trade domains, including using Iranian drones in Ukraine and partnering on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to sidestep sanctions.

In a symbolic show of force, China, Russia, and Iran recently conducted their fifth annual joint naval drills, Security Belt 2025, near the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments.

Despite this cooperation, analysts caution that neither Russia nor China is likely to defend Iran militarily as their influence remains largely diplomatic.

However, past examples—such as Russia’s role in handling Iran’s enriched uranium under the original JCPOA—demonstrate that Moscow and Beijing could still offer constructive solutions.

Limited options, rising risks

Yet there are signs that Tehran may have waited too long. The US has already resumed strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, a move many in Tehran interpret as the first step in a broader encirclement strategy—possibly extending to Iranian nuclear facilities.

In Neccia’s assessment, “Tehran is approaching China and Russia in the hope of being able to contain American pressure, especially in Vienna and New York (the last naval drills project a high degree of symbolism in this regard)”. But he added it is doubtful whether “Moscow and Beijing can effectively counter the increasing pressure from the US on Iran, something which, I suspect, Tehran is fully aware of.”

While Tehran maintains that any future negotiations must be preceded by the full removal of sanctions, some Iranian officials have shown a tentative openness to dialogue—possibly encouraged by the recent Beijing summit.

With direct US-Iran talks on ice, the best hope for reviving the nuclear deal may lie in Beijing and Moscow’s ability to broker a middle ground. Whether that’s enough to overcome mounting hostilities and political distrust remains to be seen—but in this diplomatic chess game, China and Russia may be the only players with any leverage left.