Q&A: How the Kyrgyz-Tajik border agreement will impact Central Asia’s future
WORLD
10 min read
Q&A: How the Kyrgyz-Tajik border agreement will impact Central Asia’s futureIn an exclusive interview, Djoomart Otorbaev, a former Kyrgyz prime minister, speaks to TRT World about border deals and regional pay-offs in Central Asia.
Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, right, greets Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon during a welcome ceremony for heads of delegations of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Oct. 13, 2023. Photo/Pavel Bednyakov, Sputnik
36 minutes ago

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon is on a two-day state visit to Kyrgyzstan to finalise a long-awaited border agreement with President Sadyr Japarov.

In 2021-22, there were
deadly border clashes between the two states in areas located in the fertile Fergana Valley, which is a crucial area with its rich water and agricultural sources for Central Asian economies. But since then, the two countries have sought to reach a settlement to designate their borderlines. 

The deal marks the resolution of Central Asia’s last border conflict, a process decades in the making. 

“Nobody mediated. The countries said that we will fix our dispute ourselves. We don't need anybody. No United States, no Russia, no Uzbekistan, no Kazakhstan. We will do it ourselves,” says Djoomart Otorbaev, Kyrgyzstan’s former prime minister, during an exclusive interview with TRT World. He added that the deal will help economic activities grow across border regions, particularly in Fergana Valley, by securing peace between the two nations. 

Here’s the full interview:

TRT World: Can you explain to us the root causes of border disputes and the deal’s background? 

Djoomart Otorbaev: Much of our border disputes are related to the Fergana Valley, which is one of the most populous places in Central Asia. Actually, Fergana Valley, which occupies little territory, practically feeds all of Central Asia with its agricultural products. On average, the population density in Central Asia is 19 people per square kilometers. But in Fergana Valley, the population density is 800 people per square kilometers. It's very populous and the population in the last 20 years in Fergana Valley increased by 40 percent because of the healthy demographic situation in Central Asia. 

We don't have enough fertile land in Central Asia. We don't have enough water to irrigate our fields either. So this tiny oasis in Central Asia really delivers great importance for all the economies of Central Asia. 

During pre-Soviet times, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyz lived together without borders. Sometimes we had conflicts, but there were no fundamental clashes between different nations. But when the Soviet Union started splitting its territories into republics, one of the most complicated areas was Fergana Valley because in the same area Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and Tajiks live together. How to draw the line? It was very complicated and to be honest, the Soviets didn't finish delimitation and demarcation of borders. At that time, nobody really paid attention to this problem because we lived in the same country. But in 1991, all republics became independent, and problems started growing from security to border patrolling, to water and land use. 

We live on a chessboard, black, white, black, white and black, etc. Tajiks, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks live in the same villages. It was very complicated. For 33 years, we had problems, but what's been happening since 2016 is that the situation started changing positively because of the new president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. He provided real political will to fix the borders between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This process has been successful, really, without major disruptions.

Unfortunately, it was not the case between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, two brotherly nations, partly because the population density in Tajik part is much higher than the Kyrgyz part. The demographic situation in Tajikistan became really more complicated and then
there were clashes. For many years, 33 plus years, Kyrgyz and Tajiks have tried to find the solution which would satisfy everybody. It was not easy because there's no map. 

Why were there no maps? Did the Soviets not produce these maps to draw lines between republics? 

DO: No, because in Fergana Valley, Kyrgyz, Tajiks and Uzbeks live in the same villages. For example, more Tajiks live in border areas like Voruch in Kyrgyzstan. Soviets didn't really pay attention to that case precisely because we were in the same country governed by the same government. But after 1991 when all republics became independent, that became a big issue.

One nation says that we need more and better land, and another says we also want to have better access to water, triggering an endless debate for more than 30 years. But fortunately, about four years ago, the governments of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan provided political will to settle it in a mutually agreed format.

President of Tajikistan Rahmon is on a historic state visit to Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan to sign the border agreement. The final document shows the delimitation of the border with detailed description of who will do what and when, including exchange of land and the measures to relocate people from one nationality to another.

For instance, the village of Dostuk where dozens of Kyrgyz families live will be given to Tajikistan. And Tajikistan will give a similar plot of land to Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan should then relocate those families and give them similar plots of land and build the houses. The Tajik side will also do similar things. It will be a very difficult process, but what is key is that both parties said we must fix it. 

Who mediated between the two nations? 

DO: Nobody mediated. The countries said that we will fix our dispute ourselves. We don't need anybody. No United States, no Russia, no Uzbekistan, no Kazakhstan. We will do it ourselves. But the Uzbek president himself was really very instrumental and efficient in asking both parties to find compromise.

In
Newroz, at the end of March, there will be a summit in Fergana Valley between the three presidents. It will be another step in brotherhood unification of Fergana Valley. First, we need to split and then we can open the borders for everything from trade to exchange of people and joint exercises, whatever. After fixing this dispute, the last problem of Central Asia will disappear. So it will be a kind of friendship forever. 

After this agreement, will these three nations create some kind of economic zone in the Fergana Valley to better manage their economic activities? 

DO: Absolutely. After 2016, the Uzbek president made it very clear that his priority would be regional cooperation in Central Asia. So he really pushed very hard to make friendly relationships with all neighbours and he succeeded because he also has Turkmenistan, another neighbour of Uzbekistan. 

After we fixed our border issues with Uzbekistan, enormous trade and cooperation started along the border. We have a few millions Uzbeks coming to Kyrgyzstan every year and many millions of Kyrgyz going to Uzbekistan very freely, it was difficult before. Now they make business in the nature of the free market. Now there’s free exchange of people as young people are marrying each other, making trade, creating families, creating joint projects and investments. It’s because we have lived together for centuries and centuries. 

You're hoping that the same thing will happen with Tajikistan, right? 

DO: Absolutely, yes, absolutely. We have a lot in common. We also have competition, but competition is always good.

Central Asia has become a united region of the world. We are five united. You may have heard that there are a lot of summits in the format 5 + 1 (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan + Azerbaijan). Big powers like the US, EU, China, Russia, Türkiye, Japan, and Korea want to meet us in that format. Why? Because we demonstrated a united front. Our populations are not as big as they could be, so only 80 million people, somewhat similar to Türkiye, but for some reasons, many big powers wanted to cooperate with us. 

Which model are you using to address your problems?

DO: There is no universal model. Everything is completely unique. It's not a model, it's a political will from the leaders to fix this problem without doing it at the expense of others. We must fix the borderlines to which not many will pay attention in the future.

Like in the European Union, where is the border between Belgium and The Netherlands? Nobody knows. We need to move in the same direction. 

Are there any visa regulations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan? 

DO: It’s visa-free. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also don't have visa regulations. Among all the former Soviet Union countries with the exception of Baltic states, we don't have any visa among ourselves. We also don't have visas with Türkiye.

After this agreement, will Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan build some border posts across the borderline? 

DO: First, it should be the delimitation, which is a detailed description of each meter. But then, there's another element, which is demarcation, putting some physical objects over the borderline and maybe some fences as well as signs, which direct people to go to areas to show their passport to the border guards. 

It should be done, otherwise it will be a mess, considering we have different tax and customs regimes as well as different prices of materials, petrol or consumer goods. We don't want to make smuggling a popular event on our border. 

You talked about Central Asian unification. How does it stand right now?  

DO: We have in our DNA a feeling of brotherhood. What our president and government says is that it's win-win. We must be friendly to our neighbours. It will be win-win in a big sense, everybody understands. It will be one market instead of five tiny markets. A single entity. Of course, we have to harmonise legislation and we have to work hard in order to help people not to travel to neighbouring countries. So it's a kind of confidence building among our nations, and it will continue. 

How will you all define this one single entity? Will it be called the Central Asian Union or something else? 

DO: We have not discussed creating a legal entity with a charter laying out obligations and demanding uniformity of legislation. Every year our five presidents - sometimes they invite others like Azerbaijani president - come together at the summit in so-called consultative format. From the EU to China and the US and Türkiye everybody wants to meet us in this format (5+1). We started the process of getting together and building more trust. I can't speculate whether we will be building a legal entity like the EU. The process should be natural and step-by-step to get closer to each other. 

What kind of role can Türkiye play for Central Asian unification? 

DO: We are members of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) alongside Türkiye. (Tajikistan, a Persian-speaking country, is not a member of the OTS). Every year, these summits bring more and more interesting, fruitful and ambitious results, especially in economic cooperation. So we also have to be closer to each other. In that respect, I would like to underline that we are witnessing the so-called Eurasian rail revolution, which I described in my book, Central Asia's Economic Rebirth in the Shadow of the New Great Game.

This railway ensures a big trade between China and Europe. Enormous traffic. Every hour, two fully loaded trains move between Europe and China through Central Asia, especially through the so-called Middle Corridor, which connects China to the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye and Black Sea.

This is the new Silk Road, but it’s also a new emotional route for us because it joins Turkic brothers. It’s very difficult to trade by sea between Central Asia and Türkiye, but now by railway we will move quickly. Our trade will blossom. Our people will be visiting more and more. Business, investments, people to people, cultural events, humanitarian projects will be strengthened because we will have good transport logistical opportunities. It takes 12 days to travel by train from China's Chongqing to Germany’s Duisburg. It means that between Bishkek and Istanbul, it’s going to take just six days. This Eurasian trade is booming through Turkic route. This is how Turkic nations will be unified more than ever before.

(This interview has been edited for length and clarity)

SOURCE:TRT World
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