The petrol unit at Nigeria's 650,000 barrel-per-day Dangote refinery may be shut for 2-3 months for repairs, industry monitor IIR Energy told clients on Thursday, which could lead to a tighter petrol market.

The unit has been shut since around August 29 after catalyst leaks. The refinery plans to attempt to restart the 204,000 bpd Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking Unit (RFCCU) on September 20, but major repairs and equipment replacement could keep the unit shut for months, IIR Energy said.

Reuters first reported on Wednesday that Dangote's RFCCU was expected to be shut for at least two weeks.

Dangote did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Significant shift in international petrol trade

One petrol trader said the market for the motor fuel was already strong.

"This just adds fuel to the fire," the trader said.

Supply constraints in the market due to current and upcoming outages are enough to offset the seasonal decline in demand, noted Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities.

The Dangote refinery, which began processing crude in January 2024, has slashed the Europe to West petrol export trade significantly. EU and UK petrol exports to Nigeria fell from an average of about 200,000 bpd in 2024 to about 120,000 bpd in the first half of this year, according to Kpler data.

It has also shipped two petrol cargoes to the US East Coast, expected to arrive in the New York area later this month, a major milestone for the company.