Zeynep ConkarEarlier this week, Syria announced the signing of an agreement between President Ahmed Alsharaa and the SDF, which is dominated by YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist group. The agreement aims to extend Damascus’s governance over civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria where YPG exercises a hold.
Experts say the development is significant as it addresses the issue of terrorism and helps a government that pushed out Bashar al Assad’s regime to enforce its control over the war-torn Middle Eastern country’s territory.
Türkiye considers every effort aimed at clearing Syria of terrorism as a step taken in the right direction, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, adding that the ultimate beneficiary of the agreement’s full implementation would be Syrian citizens.
SDF integration into the state can potentially reduce internal conflict and allow the new Syrian leaders to focus more on extremist groups, says Benjamin Fève, senior analyst at Karam Shaar Advisory, a consultancy specialising in Syria.
“Greater stability would also restrict operational space for terrorist groups, which would be a clear benefit for regional security,” Fève tells TRT World.
“Regionally, a more stable Syria could help ease tensions with neighbouring countries such as Türkiye and Iraq – particularly if the SDF is integrated into the national government and PKK terror elements are expelled from Syria.”
Currently, the YPG-led SDF controls about one-third of Syria’s territory, including key oil and gas fields.
The SDF initially refused to join the newly formed Syrian Ministry of Defence, which brought together various armed groups after the fall of the Assad regime.
TRT Global - People acknowledge the tough road ahead and are determined to reclaim their country, one reform at a time. Here’s their perspective on the nation’s rebirth.
SDF had no choice but to bow down
The agreement comes at a time when Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK terror group, called for the dissolution of all factions affiliated with his group and declared that the decades-long terror campaign must end.
Regionally, shifting dynamics in Syria and Iraq have further weakened the PKK/YPG terror group’s position.
Invoking its right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, Türkiye has carried out successive military operations –Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring– over the past years to neutralise terrorists in northern Syria.
These operations have eliminated at least 17,000 PKK/YPG terrorists and secured Türkiye's southeastern border.
Through these operations, Türkiye has effectively “shattered the terror belt” that was intended to be established in northern Syria, as Erdogan puts it.
By the time PKK’s dissolution was announced, Türkiye had already made significant strides in eliminating PKK elements within its own borders, thanks in part to the rapid advancement of its defence industry.
These efforts largely demolished PKK’s operational capacity and weakened its influence in Syria and Iraq.
Beyond military humiliations, the YPG also suffered increasing political pressure. Both Ankara and Damascus have made it clear that refusing to integrate into Syria’s national military structure would bring serious repercussions.
Türkiye's determination to disarm and disband the PKK and YPG has not changed as the Syrian government formalised the deal with the SDF.
In February, Omer Celik, spokesperson for Türkiye’s governing AK Party, reiterated that all PKK-linked groups, including those outside Türkiye, must comply with the call for dissolution.
“Regardless of whether they are called PKK, YPG or PYD, all extensions of the terrorist organisation must dissolve themselves,” Celik said, in reference to the elements in Iraq and Syria.
Since the PKK targets Türkiye, Iraq and Syria, for the future of the region, Turkish officials have long stressed a common agenda to fight the terror group.
Türkiye’s position has been reciprocated by the Syrian government, as Alsharaa stating his country is committed to “building a strategic partnership with Türkiye to confront security threats in the region”.
Iraq has also taken a stance highly encouraged by Türkiye, officially designating the PKK as a “banned organisation” last year.
With pressure mounting from all sides, the SDF ultimately had no choice but to bow down, experts say.
As of now, the SDF remains in control of northeastern Syria as the deal would be implemented by the end of the year. Until the agreement proves capable of achieving its stated goals, experts believe it’s better to maintain tempered optimism.
“The important thing to remember is this is a roadmap, not an agreement set for immediate implementation,” says Fève.
“That said, this is a positive step. The agreement has formalised discussions that had been taking place behind the scenes – talks that many had assumed had stalled. But in reality, they have been progressing,” he explains.
Fixing economic instability
After decades of authoritarian rule and conflict, Syria remains at the centre of the world’s largest refugee crisis. An estimated 70 percent of the population relies on humanitarian aid, while 90 percent live below the poverty line.
Given these dire conditions, the newly signed agreement is highly important for stabilising the country, as it transfers control of key border crossings with Iraq and Türkiye, as well as airports and oil fields in the northeast, to the Syrian government.
Since the early years of the Syrian civil war, the SDF has controlled Syria’s most resource-rich areas, with only a fraction of oil revenues reaching the central government.
With Damascus now set to reclaim control over its energy sector, Syria could legally reintegrate its oil industry, paving the way for the return of international companies that had previously been unable to operate in the country.
“The agreement enables centralised control over oil and gas resources, which would strengthen the Damascus government’s financial base, ultimately facilitating better governance and security enforcement,” Fève says.
Fève also underlines that Syria regaining authority over its oil production could attract foreign investment and reduce the country’s reliance on external financial assistance.
Ensuring the safe return of displaced Syrians is another critical aspect of the agreement, according to Fève.
“Prioritising the return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) could contribute to stabilising the country in rebuilding war-torn regions.”
“Internationally, a unified and functional Syrian state could facilitate diplomatic normalisation and attract reconstruction funding, particularly from the EU, the UK, and possibly even the US,” he added.
TRT Global - Defence ministry sources say that Türkiye will not tolerate any concessions on Syria’s unity and territorial integrity as Ankara remains resolute in its fight against terrorism.
The US should withdraw
For years, the YPG-led SDF depended on the US for financial and military assistance to establish a foothold in northeastern Syria.
However, Türkiye’s cross-border operations, the formation of a new Syrian government, and even the call for dissolution by the PKK terror group’s own ringleader have left the SDF vulnerable and exposed the futility of its continued efforts.
As a long-standing NATO ally, Türkiye has persistently urged the US to withdraw its support and protection of the PKK/YPG.
The Syrian government has asserted that it is capable of maintaining control over these areas amidst Syria’s shifting political landscape. Also, Türkiye has indicated its willingness to form a coalition with Iraq, Jordan, and Syria to prevent the resurgence of Daesh, which was the original purpose of Washington’s support for the SDF.
Recognising these developments, the Pentagon has been weighing the possibility of withdrawing all US troops from Syria. Last week, Trump stated that the US "will make a determination" on a full withdrawal, adding, "We're not involved in Syria…They don't need us involved.”
According to a Pentagon announcement in December, the US has some 2,000 troops deployed in Syria.
Many US diplomats share this perspective. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford has argued that the most effective way for the US to support Syria would be to withdraw its forces and engage with the country’s newly formed government in countering Daesh, which could prove to be a stronger and more reliable partner in eliminating the terrorist group.
"The only path for Syria to establish a true democracy is through the rule of law…this should not require American intervention or the presence of US troops on the ground," Ford wrote.
