As Israel and Iran land punch and counter-punch, and air strikes light up the night skies of the two arch-rivals, the sense of dread seems to be more palpable among residents of Tehran and other cities across the Shia-majority country. 

In what analysts describe as an “unprecedented” military escalation, Israel launched a barrage of coordinated attacks that dealt heavy blows to Iran’s nuclear, military, and security infrastructure.

The strikes have taken a heavy toll: at least 224 people have been killed, and over 1,200 wounded, while the damage has extended far beyond military sites, impacting hospitals, residential buildings, and critical civilian infrastructure.

Over the span of several days, dozens of high-value locations were hit with precision. Among them were the Natanz and Fordow nuclear complexes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence centres in Isfahan and Mashhad, and the private residences of senior Quds Force commanders and nuclear scientists.

In a dramatic escalation, Israeli jets struck Iran’s state broadcaster in Tehran during a live newscast. Smoke and debris filled the studio as anchor Sahar Emami fled the scene. 

Iran also struck deep inside Israel, reportedly penetrating the country’s Iron Dome defence system and hitting the central military headquarters along with other sensitive sites. But visible evidence says that Israel has managed to land far more crippling blows than Iran’s retaliation. 

As of June 16, at least 13 Israelis had been killed and hundreds more wounded—a staggering toll for a country protected by one of the world’s most advanced missile defence systems. 

The cost to Iran was not only in assets lost, but in deterrence shattered,  as it exposes the depth of Israel’s intelligence infiltration. The scale and precision of the Israeli operation shocked even seasoned Iranian insiders.

"This was not just another strike," says Baqer Salehi, an Iranian researcher with close ties to the IRGC. "It was the most painful blow in years—both in terms of scope and its multidimensional messaging to Iran and the broader region," Salehi tells TRT World.

Salehi and other observers emphasise that this was no haphazard bombing campaign. The selection of targets pointed to deep, actionable intelligence—suggesting a significant level of infiltration into Iran’s security architecture. 

One senior Iranian diplomat, now serving as an adviser in the office of ‘supreme leader’ Ali Khamenei, says that the leadership had expected an Israeli move but not on this scale or with this level of sophistication.

"Russia had warned us early on, and even recommended relocating sensitive parts of our nuclear programme,” the adviser tells TRT World, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“That helped mitigate some losses, but we were unprepared for the timing and the intensity."

Intelligence failures

The political and military leadership in Tehran was caught off guard. No official statements were released during the first hours of the assault, and Iranian state media remained largely silent, while Israeli and Western outlets dominated the narrative.

Perhaps most symbolically, Israeli strikes reportedly killed several senior officials—figures closely aligned with Khamenei—while they slept in their homes. The breach of such inner sanctums revealed an unprecedented collapse in Iran’s internal security protocols.

“This was a moment of black comedy,” says an Iranian analyst, who also sought anonymity. “These were supposed to be the best-protected people in the country, yet they were eliminated like amateurs.” 

The event triggered widespread questions among Iranians about the viability of Tehran’s often-trumpeted security posture.

Most alarming for Tehran was the direct hit on the Natanz nuclear facility, central to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Though the government reluctantly acknowledged the damage, it marked a major strategic and psychological defeat.

"The Israeli attack pierced the depth of Iran’s security apparatus," Salehi notes, "reaching critical sites that were assumed to be untouchable."

Nuclear calculations and shifting red lines

The strike came just as Tehran was weighing whether to resume nuclear talks with the United States. Following the attack, Iran abruptly cancelled the planned sixth round of negotiations in Oman, accusing Washington of tacitly approving Israel’s actions despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Dr. Masoud Fekri, a former adviser in the government led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, says the leadership was stunned by what it perceived as an American green light for the assault. 

“Iran had believed the US would restrain Israel, but that assumption was catastrophically wrong,” Fekri tells TRT World.

Within days, internal consultations reportedly began over the long-standing ban on nuclear weapons, enshrined in a fatwa by Khamenei. 

While Iran is unlikely to revoke the fatwa publicly, sources suggest that covert steps toward weaponisation are now on the table, as Tehran seeks to bolster its bargaining power without openly violating its own red lines.

Iran does it alone, for now

In a notable departure from past behaviour, Iran declined to activate its regional network of proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias, largely weakened by Israeli strikes over the past months. 

According to sources in Tehran, the regime insisted on responding directly, seeking to project strength and self-sufficiency.

But this strategy comes with risks. Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful ally, is reeling from its own humiliating exposure in the 2024 conflict with Israel, which saw much of its leadership targeted and killed. 

The Lebanese group’s capacity to engage meaningfully has diminished, and the Iranian leadership may now be coming to terms with the fragility of its so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’.

Fekri warns that this is one of the most dangerous moments in Iran’s recent history. “Each day that passes in this confrontation weakens Iran’s deterrent capabilities and stresses its military infrastructure,” he says. 

“We’re not just talking about retaliation—we’re talking about strategic survival.”

The ongoing strikes represent a turning point in the Israel-Iran conflict. For Israel, they underscore a growing confidence in its intelligence dominance and its willingness to cross thresholds once considered too provocative.

But it also reveals a vulnerability within Israel’s defense systems, which has enabled Iranian warheads from striking residential areas, causing substantial damage and losses in lives, and leaving civilians trapped beneath the rubble.

For Iran, they highlight profound vulnerabilities in its security, deterrence doctrine, and regional positioning.

Even senior advisers in Khamenei’s office now speak openly about the need to rebuild deterrence. 

One insider tells TRT World that Iran’s military response—limited but symbolic—was part of a broader strategy to "re-establish regional credibility" and signal that Iran can still absorb blows and remain standing.

Yet the strategic landscape is shifting.

Much like Hezbollah after its 2024 setbacks, Iran’s ruling elite now faces the unenviable task of projecting strength while grappling with undeniable weakness. 

The question is no longer whether Israel can reach the heart of the Iranian state, but whether that state can withstand repeated shocks without fracturing under mounting pressure.

At the same time, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have underscored a critical shift for Israel as well. Tel Aviv is not invulnerable. With its defences penetrated and key sites hit, Israel’s own military dominance is now being tested, along with the resilience of its government under escalating regional strain. 

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.