Murat SofuogluPresident Donald Trump of the United States is having a go at ending the Gaza bloodshed at the hands of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu government, a target that had eluded the previous Biden administration despite many ceasefire negotiations.
Unlike the Biden presidency, which had no real agenda to renew nuclear deal talks with Tehran, the Trump administration has a crucial factor in mind during negotiations with Israel and Palestinians: Iran, a Middle Eastern state which has aligned with Hamas against the Zionist state.
Unlike his first term, during which Trump launched a pressure campaign against Iran, including withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a 2015 agreement between Iran and other world powers), instead of seeking a compromise with the Shia-majority state, the Republican president in his second term has pursued a serious outreach to Tehran on finding a nuclear deal modification.
Experts believe that Trump’s nuclear balancing act with Iran might be part of a larger package, which includes reducing Middle Eastern tensions between Tehran and its allies (from Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Yemen’s Houthis) and Israel. As a result, Trump seeks a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel to avoid a wider conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv, they say.
One of the experts holding such a view is Richard Falk, a prominent international law professor and the former UN Special Rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank. “Trump appears far more concerned about avoiding open war with Iran than stopping the violence in Occupied Palestine,” Falk tells TRT World.
US president Donald Trump wants an end to the war “as quickly as possible” but can he persuade Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu?
“Trump is the most unpredictable leader on the present world scene, and so it may be that he is personally offended by Netanyahu's refusal to do what he proposes on behalf of wider US strategic interests in the region, and would be prepared to accept an open break with Israel,” says the prominent Jewish-American professor, who now leads the Gaza Tribunal initiative, which aims to “awaken civil society to its responsibility and opportunity to stop Israel’s genocide in Gaza”.
Trump “aims to conclude the Iranian conflict, potentially through an agreement that might not satisfy Israel,” says Ramzy Baroud, a Palestinian author and political analyst.
Iran, Netanyahu and Gaza war
Most recently, Trump sent a clear signal to Israel not to strike Iran. “Well, I’d like to be honest. Yes, I did… I told [Netanyahu] this would be very inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” the US president said during an Oval Office meeting with reporters.
An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities might not only disrupt Washington-Tehran talks but also torpedo ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and the Trump administration, escalating tensions between pro-Palestinian forces and the Netanyahu government across the Middle East.
Unlike Biden, Trump does not like Netanyahu much, says Fatima Karimkhan, a Tehran-based Iranian journalist. “He doesn't really support Israel in this war and he claims that the US is the one paying for all these wars, which he is not happy with,” Karimkhan tells TRT World.
But Karimkhan still thinks that even if the Netanyahu government and Hamas agree on a ceasefire in Gaza, that would not guarantee the prevention of a potential Israeli attack on Iran. A Gaza ceasefire might be more aligned with making Trump’s Gulf allies happy than a countermeasure against an Israeli attack on Iran, according to the journalist.
“The problem between Iran and Israel is not wholly about Gaza and Palestine, it is more about expansionism of the Israeli government. Until the Israeli government sees Iran as a threat, no ceasefire could change things between Israel and Iran,” says Karimkhan.
Falk, however, sees a close relationship between what would happen to Gaza and Israeli tensions with Iran. “The whole outcome in Gaza may depend on how serious Israel is about launching a strike designed to destroy Iran's nuclear programme,” says Falk.
Baroud also has a similar take to Falk. “For the time being, Trump doesn't feel compelled to pressure Israel concerning Gaza. This situation, however, could shift based on the outcome of Iran talks and other issues,” he tells TRT World.
Will a Gaza ceasefire happen?
According to statements coming from both Israel and Hamas, the two avowed enemies continue to have serious differences over the US-proposed ceasefire deal, which sees changes from time to time depending on requests from both sides.
An initial ceasefire deal, which Hamas officials said the US had supported, proposed that Israel withdraw from much of Gaza and agree to a permanent truce in exchange of the Palestinian group’s release of all hostages dead or alive. Hamas said that it would support this deal.
But the Israeli side responded to this proposal saying they would accept a ceasefire deal for a 60-day period, which does not guarantee a permanent end to the Gaza bloodshed. Hamas said it’s studying the proposal, but insisted that they want a clear end to the Israeli military offensive in Gaza.
“It is untested whether Trump's leverage over Netanyahu is sufficient to induce Israel to accept a permanent ceasefire in exchange for the return of the hostages,” says Falk.
To bring an end to both Israel’s genocidal conduct in Gaza and “the Gazafication of the West Bank policy”, Trump has to sacrifice some of his credit with Zionist and Evangelical power circles in the US, according to Falk. But this might not be an easy task for the US president.
“Even if the devil himself tries to push for a ceasefire in Gaza we have a moral duty to support him,” says Karimkhan.
What Netanyahu will do
“Over the course of almost two years (since the war on Gaza began), Netanyahu has been notably stubborn in response to critics at home and internationally, including the US,” says Falk.
The professor believes that despite the new US administration’s pressure over Israel for a Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu still “might expect that Trump would give Israel a bright green light to complete the end game of the Zionist Project by depopulating and partially occupying Gaza and annexing all or most of the West Bank.”
While Trump’s Jewish-American mediator Steve Witkoff is currently pushing a ceasefire in Gaza, the US president had previously suggested the expulsion of Palestinian population from the besieged Mediterranean enclave of Palestine, turning it into the "Riviera of the Middle East".
There is also a looming danger for Israel's longest-serving prime minister that his “caving” into Trump pressure on Gaza might lead to the collapse of his fragile far-right coalition government, which stubbornly refuses any solution and ceasefire in the occupied Palestinian territories.
On Thursday, Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalal Smotrich described accepting the US-mediated ceasefire proposal as “sheer madness”, adding that he “will not allow such a thing to happen. Period.” The possible collapse of the Netanyahu government would subject the Israeli leader to face prosecutions for alleged fraud, says Falk.
“In the end I think the safest prediction is a compromise, whereby a long-term ceasefire, less than permanent, is agreed upon, coupled with renewed support for Israel's expansion of the settler presence in the West Bank (22 new settlements have been already approved by the Knesset) and annexationist moves,” says Falk.
The professor also observes the weakening Western support for Israel across the board, from the UK to Canada and other countries, might make Trump “more insistent and Netanyahu more flexible” on Gaza ceasefire, which “is among the more important unknowns."
