Sadiq S BhatWashington, DC — Billionaire Elon Musk is threatening to upend American politics, vowing to launch the "America Party" if President Donald Trump's controversial budget bill passes, a move that could fracture the Republican Party and redraw the contours of the political battlefield in the US.
The legislation, projected to balloon national debt by up to $3.3 trillion, has enraged fiscal conservatives and triggered warnings of long-term economic pain.
At the heart of the drama is Musk's claim that Trump and Republican leaders have betrayed the core principle of fiscal restraint.
Musk has repeatedly and forcefully denounced Trump's megabill, passed by the Senate and now before the House, as a "disgusting abomination" that would plunge the US deeper into debt.
In a post on X, the platform he owns, Musk wrote, "If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day.”
"Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE."
He has also floated an X poll to test support for a third party, boasting that more than 80 percent of respondents backed the idea — though critics note the results reflect Musk's own audience, not the broader electorate.
Behind the bluster lies a deeper rift between two former allies.
Musk donated a whopping $300 million to Republican causes in 2024 and once styled himself as a champion of conservative innovation.
Over the months, his relationship with Trump has soured, culminating in a bizarre twist: Trump recently hinted Musk could be deported, despite his status as a naturalised US citizen with no criminal charges.
Some see the jab as nothing more than Trumpian theatre. Others hear the undertone of a serious feud brewing beneath the surface.
Noted political analyst Dr Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science at the University of Mary Washington, told TRT World, "In any competition between Trump and Musk, some form of compromise seems the most likely eventual outcome."
"Musk has too many large government contracts," he adds, "to engage in a full, permanent rupture with a president who is quite willing to set policy in ways designed to punish his critics."
Yet, Musk seems determined to test the boundaries of political loyalty.
His vocal support for Representative Thomas Massie, one of the top Republicans opposing the budget deal, has amplified speculation that Musk is laying the groundwork for a parallel conservative movement.
History repeating itself?
In the US, every state keeps its gate.
California's, for instance, is ironclad: enroll a third of one percent of voters — roughly 75,000 names — or haul in a petition stacked with 1.1 million signatures to be registered as a political party.
To stay in the game, hold that sliver of the electorate or capture two percent in a statewide race.
American political observers are watching closely to see if Musk begins recruiting candidates or backing primary challenges in 2026.
Still, the road to a viable third party is long, rough, and littered with the wreckage of failed movements.
"In terms of elections, third parties never last in American politics, unless the third party replaces one of the two dominant parties," Farnsworth said.
"If he follows through on his threats, Musk would likely be the latest version of Ross Perot, a prickly billionaire of the 1990s who launched a third party that didn't last long."
Farnsworth added that third parties can still inflict damage in the short term.
"As the 1992 presidential election demonstrated, third parties can cause trouble for an existing party in the short term. George H.W. Bush lost re-election that year in part because millions of normally Republican voters backed Perot's third-party movement."
Whether Musk can summon the same disruption remains to be seen.
"Musk may be able to finance primary or third-party challengers and to pick off Republicans here or there who voted for this deal in the 2026 midterm elections," said Farnsworth.
Overall, though, Republicans are far more likely to back Trump over Musk in any long-running clash between these two men, he adds.
Ballot access, media coverage, candidate recruitment — these are just a few of the hurdles facing Musk.
"Any third party has to spend a huge amount of money," Farnsworth said.
"Musk's wealth makes those sorts of things easier. But money alone doesn't guarantee success, as Musk's efforts to influence the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections demonstrated earlier this year."
In other words, being rich helps. But it's not enough.
Rattling the cage
Professor David N. Gibbs of the University of Arizona struck a more open note.
"The 'standard' response from most historians is that any notion of a third party in the United States is just a pipe dream. Just look at how stable the two-party system has been for well over a century," he told TRT World.
Yet Gibbs senses something is shifting beneath the surface.
"I sense that this time really is different and that a third-party challenge may well be effective in the near future, given how deeply unpopular both parties are right now; a trend that is likely to increase if Trump's economic policies fail to raise living standards," he said.
"There are many indications that American politics is entering a period of realignment. A super-rich oligarch like Musk is unlikely to be an effective change agent, but I do sense that fundamental change is in the air."
As Congress prepares to debate the bill that triggered the billionaire's rebellion, Musk's 'America Party' remains a tantalising idea — a billionaire's bluff or the opening salvo of a new political insurgency.
"Musk may rattle the cage," Farnsworth said, "but he has many irons in the fire with his various businesses and media activities one has to wonder if he may soon tire of the long slog of building a lasting political movement that could effectively challenge Trump Republicans in 2026 and 2028."
